Top Tipster Daryl Carter had another good day on day two, with 11/1 advised Langer Dan the pick of his success. There could be much more to come on Thursday.
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Posted: 5.30pm March 14th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1.30 Cheltenham – Mighty Potter (4pt win – 11/10 generally)
MIGHTY POTTER scooted away at the DRF in the manner of a very, very smart prospect, and that is still fresh in my mind. He looks the class act in this field and boasts the strongest form in the line up with a clear-cut Drinmore victory and is 10 lbs clear on ratings. He is improving with each start, and he is certainly the horse in this race with Gold Cup aspirations next season. The rain falling has only enhanced his claims, and he is one of the best bets of the entire week. He needs to dispel the Supreme Novice Hurdle run last year, which narrowly holds him off from being a maximum advised bet, and he should be a strong odds-on chance for this contest. Appreciate has questions to answer at the age of nine and trying this distance for the first time, having been well found out in the Irish Arkle while the ground has gone against Banbridge. Balco Coastal won a handicap off 133 on his penultimate start and he is not the strongest stayer at this trip.
2.10 Cheltenham – Maxxum (2.5pt win – 6/1 generally)
MAXXUM clocked an excellent time figure in comparison to Home By The Lee when bolting up at Leopardstown at Xmas, but nothing went right for him at the DRF. There were no complaints from the camp about his British Handicap mark (nor from me having made him a 152 horse), and they haven’t opted for a claimer. Davy Russell takes the ride, and he is a fast-improving horse who will appreciate some cut in the ground. This is not a strong race on balance, and how on earth Walking On Air is ahead of him in the market is crazy. He will take all the beating, and there’s plenty of value in his price tag.
2.50 Cheltenham – Shishkin (3pt win – 5/6 generally)
SHISHKIN makes just as much of an appeal as Mighty Potter, having bounced back to form at Ascot last time tackling a new trip, and the comments about him “backing it up” are nonsense, giving he has proven time and time again that he can – including beating Energumene when returning to the track within six weeks. He has always, in my mind, looked to be screaming out for a step up in distance, and he should be a 1/4 chance here.
3.30 Cheltenham – Blazing Khal (1pt win – 10/3 Unibet, 3/1 generally)
and Sire Du Berlais (0.5pt e/w – 80/1 Bet365, 66/1 generally) (Sky pay 4 places)
BLAZING KHAL is the younger, fresher horse coming into this contest, and he has advertised his claims well in his only start in open company by winning the Boyne Hurdle. He is ground versatile and is an improver in the field. It’s hard to suggest that any other horse is improving – on time figures and on the bare form. He has a bigger performance in him, and he is taken to land this contest back at Cheltenham, where he is 2-2.
SIRE DU BERLAIS is remarkably still overpriced. I wrote the following about him last month, and I stand by it. “He is not the force of old, but outside of Blazing Khal, this is not vintage renewal either. This is surely his best chance at winning a race at the festival. Sire Du Berlais has always been a horse to come good in the spring. Backing him in the months of March or April, where he was typically aimed through his career, would have yielded three wins from eight starts and a second in this contest behind Flooring Porter in 2021. He caught the eye when looking as though he would drop out of the TV screen in the Boyne Hurdle behind Blazing Khal and stayed on well over a trip short of his best. He could be coming to the boil, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he can run into a place. For all this may be a longshot, he does have excellent course form, and his Aintree Grade 1 victory over Flooring Porter last year still is the strongest staying form on the table”.
4.10 Cheltenham – So Scottish (1pt win – 4/1 generally)
Plenty have claims here, but SO SCOTTISH looks particularly well-handicapped and unexposed for connections that landed this contest with The Shunter in 2021. I have been on him for a good while now, but I still want to side with him off of what is a lovely racing weight of 11 st. Novices have won 62% of Novice Chases at the Cheltenham Festival in the last five years, and his last run behind Boothill from out of the handicap over a trip too short was very encouraging. Boothill subsequently chased home Arkle second Jonbon at Sandown before beating Betfair Hurdle winner Aucunrisque. That’s some of the best British Chase form of the season. He is highly progressive and has been off the track to keep his mark down since. Interestingly, connections don’t opt for Michael O’Sullivan again to take five pounds off, which gives confidence in how well-treated they think he is. I will cover Datsalrightgino as he has been a friend of this column all season, but his hold-up style of racing and jumping worry’s me in a big field handicap where it has paid to be on the pace.
4.50 Cheltenham – Under Control (0.5pt e/w – 14/1 generally) & Ahorsewithnoname (0.5pt e/w – 25/1 generally)
Luccia has been strangely weak on the Betfair Exchange these past few days, and that could be because the yard has entered four-year-old and impressive Newbury winner UNDER CONTROL. I am not entirely sure of the stats of 4yo runners in this contest, but there have been five to try in the last ten years, but none shorter than 25/1, and the other four were 66/1 and bigger. She left a deep impression at Newbury and in France on her debut when quickening up smartly to score. This race is not deep, and the Irish don’t bring a strong level of form. She gets 10 lbs weight for age allowance and 17 pounds from stablemate Luccia. This effectively means she only needs to run to around 125 to win this contest, and that’s surely not out of the question, with improvement highly likely on that run 13 days ago. She looks worth chancing, having been parachuted into this at the last minute, likely under instructions from her owner.
AHORSEWITHNONAME ran a very strange race at Wincanton, looking laboured before pulling up. That wasn’t her true running, and it may be worth forgiving at a big price given her excellent second to Love Envoi in this race last year. Interestingly, she ran really poorly at Taunton at the same time last year, but she is a completely unexposed second-season Novice with easily the strongest form in the book. She is a chancy bet but one I want to keep on side at huge odds.
5.30 Cheltenham – Mr Incredible (1pt win – 11/2 generally)
MR INCREDIBLE was a horse I heavily backed to beat Ahoy Senor last year at Newbury, and he subsequently bombed out and went off the rails after that. Still, a yard switch to Willie Mullins seems to have worked the oracle with an excellent second in the Warwick Classic Chase to Iwilldoit, who is now rated 155. The fourth beat National Hunt Chase third Mister Coffey next time, and that wasn’t a track that played to his hold-up style of running. How he only got three pounds from the handicapper and no collateral raise is a blessing for Willie Mullins and Patrick Mullins as he creeps into this 0-145 off of top weight. Those towards the head of the weights have a good record in this contest, and he makes plenty of appeal after just eight career starts, with improvement almost certainly in the locker.
Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
1.30 Cheltenham – Mighty Potter (4pt win – 11/10 generally)
2.50 Cheltenham – Shishkin (3pt win – 5/6 generally)
3.30 Cheltenham – Blazing Khal (1pt win – 10/3 Unibet, 3/1 generally)
4.10 Cheltenham – So Scottish (1pt win – 4/1 generally)
4.50 Cheltenham – Under Control (0.5pt e/w – 14/1 generally) & Ahorsewithnoname (0.5pt e/w – 25/1 generally)
5.30 Cheltenham – Mr Incredible (1pt win – 11/2 generally)