Top Tipster Daryl Carter remains in excellent form and has his picks for Tuesday’s racing, including four tips on the Newcastle card.
Back his selections with Betfair‘s new customer offer and get £30 money back if it loses.
Posted: 7:35am November 15th (Odds correct at time of writing)
12.30 Lingfield – Broadway Boy (1pt E/W – 12/1 generally)
It was a truly run race that BROADWAY BOY featured in on debut at Market Rasen despite the four-runner field, and his action suggests he will be better off going left-handed. His first circuit was 28 lengths faster than the class 3 winner and subsequent Greatwood Hurdle third Harbour Lake. He ran nine lengths slower on the second circuit but lost that after the second last before running on again at the death. He was very green over his hurdles and under pressure. Improvement looks surely looks forthcoming on the back of that good debut effort.
He would have learned plenty throughout that contest and was well-backed 4/1 into even money to make a winning start. Today’s track could prove the difference. Market Rasen is a speed track with two hurdles in quick succession in the home straight – which can be tough for an inexperienced horse, especially one that has clocked a good circuit time and is tiring. Lingfield has much more time between the two hurdles in the home straight and an extra furlong on the run, which should suit. He is entitled to improve for fitness and experience, and at a double-figure price, he should prove hard to kick out of the frame today.
Nigel Twiston Davies is 0-13 here, but 10 of those finished in the first four and seven in the first three. He looks overpriced even against some promising bumper horses.
3.42 Newcastle – Jack Darcy (2pt win – 3/1 Bet365, 5/2 generally)
Sir Chauvelin (0.5pt win – 12/1 generally)
JACK DARCY is worth siding with on this big drop in grade. I thought he would be a clear short-priced favourite for this contest. He did by far the best of the prominent racers at Goodwood in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes, which was run at a strong end-to-end gallop and his four-length defeat in fourth there was no disgrace. The winner was third next time in the St Leger while the runner-up won the Great Voltigeur before a good fourth in the Melbourne Cup.
He was a disappointing fifth at Newmarket when far too keen to do himself justice on his latest outing, and the ground could also be a possible excuse there, but that race has already started to work out well, with the sixth going narrowly close at Lingfield in a Listed contest. This is by far the easiest assignment he has had to date, and his talented jockey claims a further seven off of his back, effectively meaning he gets weight from all bar three runners. None of these, other than the outsider of the field are particularly well-handicapped, and the selection has only had five career starts.
He is bred for stamina, being a half-brother to five winners over 1m6f-2m, and it’s highly likely there is more to come from him now dropped into calmer waters. I genuinely made him a 15/8 chance at best here.
I like backing SIR CHAUVELIN at this time of year and usually on the back of a poor performance on the turf when switched to Newcastle, given the market underestimates his ability to bounce back, so a saver is had should Jack Darcy underperform. His record doing this reads 013331422, and those over his optimum trip of 1m4f, like today’s, read 112. This seems to be his time of year also, with form figures in November of 131001, while those on the AW read 131.
He has an excellent course and distance record of 13111, and he is clearly weighted to go well, having just 3/4 of a length to find with today’s favourite King Of The South, having met at Southwell last year when he had to come from a mile off of a steady pace and was forced widest of all around the turn. He gave up plenty of ground that day and finished with a flurry, so it’s perfectly reasonable to think he would finish much closer today. He returns to the AW today for the first time since running a poor race in the Northumberland Plate back in June, for which he has finished in the top three on ten of his 17 outings.
He ticks plenty of boxes for the outsider of the entire field and must be the value play.
6.15 Newcastle – Primo’s Comet (1pt E/W – 33/1 Bet365, 18/1 generally)
It takes a leap of faith to back PRIMO’S COMET after his latest outing here, but he was drawn poorly and had no cover at the rear of a slowly run race, so I am happy to put a line through that. He has been better than his form figures suggest this season, and the interesting angle here is backing this horse within a short period of his last run, particularly on the AW. He returns to the track within four days today, and backing him when returning within ten days has seen all three of his AW victories (3-3 100%).
He may not be the force of old, but he outperforms market expectations with a huge A/E of 5.33 and a profit of £16 to a £1 level stake (550% ROI). If you were to follow this angle on turf also, he would have yielded five wins from 14 runs with form figures of 22123723011110 (35% strike rate), and four of those defeats were by a neck or shorter. Paul Mulrennan is back in the saddle today, and he drops into a Class 5 and looks worth chancing.
6.45 Newcastle – Vindobala (1pt win – 4/1 William Hill, 7/2 generally)
VINDOBALA scored with a good bit in hand for this column last time, and she looks worth siding with to follow up again with the drop to seven furlongs, no issue. She remains in a class 5 race, and her record here now reads 1212221354 below class 4 level, and she made good strides this time last year in Nov/Dec.
Her seven-furlong record at this venue reads 12221, and with a strong pace looking likely, she should make a positive start for her new yard.
Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
12.30 Lingfield – Broadway Boy (1pt E/W – 12/1 generally)
3.42 Newcastle – Jack Darcy (2pt win – 3/1 Bet365, 5/2 generally) & Sir Chauvelin (0.5pt win – 12/1 generally)
6.15 Newcastle – Primo’s Comet (1pt E/W – 33/1 Bet365, 18/1 generally)
6.45 Newcastle – Vindobala (1pt win – 4/1 William Hill, 7/2 generally)