We have a busy day of racing ahead on Wednesday and our top tipster Daryl Carter, has seven selections across the cards at Ascot, Pontefract and day two of the Punchestown Festival. Read his thoughts below, alongside Bet365‘s new customer offer of Bet £10, Get £50 In Free Bets.
Odds correct at time of publishing.
1.50 Ascot – History Writer (0.5pts each-way – 33/1)
This goes against my better judgement to back three in this race, but there are three places on offer in this contest, and I simply couldn’t walk away from the rags of the field despite the lack of pace in this race. HISTORY WRITER may be on the downgrade, and not many bounce back after leaving David Menuisier.
Still, this horse is far too well handicapped to ignore, even if he only retains a small portion of his ability. He left his previous yard after running three below-par races, one of which he went off 5/2f off a mark of 93 in a good Class 3 contest. That was last May on his third last turf start, and he then had little chance at Salisbury in a hot class 2 before being beaten six lengths at Doncaster in the Racing League behind today’s favourite Tahitian Prince (2nd). Still, he was giving today’s fav four pounds and meets him 19 pounds better off today.
History Writer is down to a mark of 74, and that’s 14lbs lower than his last turf start (4 runs ago), and it may be the case that his three runs at Kempton on the all-weather (0-3 AW) have not seen him to best effect. I also think the key to this horse has always been to catch him off a break for which he arrives here after 63 days off. On turf, he ran a scorcher on return last year when denied a clear run continuously in the Lincoln off 98 only to finish eased off when all chance had gone.
On his 2020 return, he wasn’t disgraced, beaten eight lengths in a Group 3 at Newbury and in 2019, he ran an eye-catching race in the Spring Cup. The fact that his best run came here at Ascot last year when beaten just three lengths in the Victoria Cup off 95 gives hope he could bounce back off this much-reduced mark of 74 (69 inclusive of the claimer) returned to Ascot. There’s every reason to think he is not the same horse, would prefer a softer surface or a different track, but he is too well-handicapped to ignore, so I don’t mind falling on my sword here.
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1.50 Ascot – Repertoire (0.5pts each-way -10/1)
REPERTOIRE is 11lbs lower than when third beaten one length in this race last year on seasonal return, and he failed to match those figures throughout the season, suggesting fresh was the time to catch him. He is another that relies on a strong pace, and he won’t get that here, but he scored at Wolverhampton very easily on his first Britsh start after 114 days off the track and his career-best performance in France when third to Duhail (115) in 2020 came after 410 days off the track.
This could have been the target for connections with him, and off this career-low mark, he could cause an upset with three of his last four runs easily forgiven over trips he simply doesn’t stay. Tahitian Prince is the most likely winner, but Sean Leavy gets on particularly well with him, and the market, unfortunately, has him well found.
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3.50 Pontefract – Global Spirit (1pt win – 11/2)
GLOBAL SPIRIT was better than the bare result on multiple occasions last season, but he remains tough to win with outside of his second start of the season. His seasonal returns are always best forgiven, but he is a horse with an excellent second time out record with form figures of 6 (Thirsk Hunt Cup), 1, 1, 7 (denied a clear run continuously), and his RPRs each year have recorded 63, 77, 82, and 87.
Today he makes his second start after a break off his same handicap mark as his 2020 win, and he is eight pounds lower than his Thirsk Hunt Cup run last term. Today he is back into a class 4 for this second start of the season. He looks worth chancing with his main danger, Tangled having a rare start without the hood, and it may be the case he is being prepped for a return to Beverley. Eilean Dubh has a bit to prove on the ground as quick as this switched back to turf.
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3.35 Ascot – Enemy (1pt win – 9/2 general)
ENEMY scored well at Musselburgh in the Queen’s Cup and was heavily eased in the closing stages after kicking clear underhand and heels riding, and with this division having needed a shakeup in recent seasons, he could prove the one to do it.
He is now rated 108, which means he is forced into pattern company and given the high regard he was held in when with John Gosden, it could be that now he is ready to fulfil his potential over staying trips. He is unexposed and would have gone close granted a clear run at Meydan in a Group 3 behind the smart Manobo rated 113, which suggests he is not out of place here. He arrives here on the up with a race fitness advantage over a few of his rivals.
Princess Zoe has always been a horse that needs soft ground, so today’s fast surface, although not a total inconvenience, is not likely to see her post some of the smart figures she did last season. Tashkan fits the same bill as the selection and finished a similar distance behind the above mentioned Manobo in the Prix Chaudenay at Longchamp last term and could have more to offer. Still, the suspicion is he would prefer cut in the ground and his well-being is unknown.
Wordsworth was made to pull out all the stops on return at Gowran when 4/11f, and that wasn’t a bright display, although a repeat of last season’s form sees him in with a shout. Nayef Road is regressive, and the remainder needs a career-best to be involved.
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3.40 Punchestown – Thanksforthehelp (1.5pts win – 6/1)
THANKSFORTHEHELP was a previous selection for this column at Wincanton when narrowly touched off in receipt of seven pounds from Honneur D’Ajonc – a subsequent Grade 2 fourth rated 129. That single piece of form makes this opening handicap mark of 109 look extremely lenient, but he had to suffer a slow pace dictated by the winner that day, so he was worth an upgrade.
Interestingly, connections decided to send him over to Ireland for his handicap debut, put on a first-time tongue-tie, and step him up in distance. All of David Pipe’s winners in Ireland have come here at Punchestown, and the booking of Shane Fitzgerald catches the eye; and he is one of the more experienced riders in this field. This race looks almost cherry-picked by his owner, who has won the last two renewals, including with a British trained runner.
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5.20 Punchestown – The Nice Guy (2pts win – 9/4 general)
THE NICE GUY looks a really generous price given he is from a yard that has won this contest five times in the last ten years, and he has scalped four of his 11 rivals at the Cheltenham Festival, and collateral form holds a further two.
He won in the style of a very smart horse at Cheltenham and was going away at the finish with any amount in hand. The three-mile division this term has not held much strength in depth, and he is the rising star in the field with a very promising future. He gets a strong vote of confidence.
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7.05 Punchestown – Fancy Foundations (1pt win – 8/1 Betvictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
FANCY FOUNDATIONS‘ jumping needs work, but there’s a good chance he was being handicapped for Cheltenham before being pulled out of the Festival Plate as a non-runner due to the soft going after catching the eye behind today’s favourite Ciel De Neige at Navan.
He made swift progress through the field and was tenderly handled in the closing stages during that Novice event. He was better than the bare result before that here at Punchestown behind Vanillier after pecking on landing at the third last when making headway and previously had yet to play his hand in a Grade 3 contest at Tipperary before coming down.
It could be the case that connections gave him a spin at Limerick over 3m to keep him ticking over, given he hadn’t run for 99 days, and he shaped with a good deal of promise on that occasion also. The switch to handicaps for the first time in his career and the drop back in trip looks positive moves by connections, especially as he is now 13lbs better off at the weights with Ciel De Neige and three pounds better off with Egality Mans – who is a three-mile mudlark for the future.
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Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
1.50 Ascot – History Writer (0.5pts each-way – 33/1)
1.50 Ascot – Repertoire (0.5pts each-way -10/1)
3.50 Pontefract – Global Spirit (1pt win – 11/2)
3.35 Ascot – Enemy (1pt win – 9/2 general)
3.40 Punchestown – Thanksforthehelp (1.5pts win – 6/1)
5.20 Punchestown – The Nice Guy (2pts win – 9/4 general)
7.05 Punchestown – Fancy Foundations (1pt win – 8/1 Betvictor, Coral, Ladbrokes)
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