Top tipster Daryl Carter takes aim at Wednesday at Doncaster as the St Leger Festival begins.
Check out his tips and thoughts on each below, and why not sign up to bet365, which is offering £50 In Free Bets to new customers, when you sign-up and bet £10.
Published: 4:30pm September 6th (Odds correct at time of posting where available)
2.25 Doncaster – Modern Dancer (NAP) (2pt win – 7/4 generally )
MODERN DANCER makes plenty of appeal now switched to a handicap based on a lenient opening rating of 85. This is unlikely to be the strongest of contests the Charlie Appleby runner will contest in his lifetime, and there were plenty of positives to take out of both of his performances. The runner-up and the third from his debut run here at Doncaster are both rated 85 and 84, and he was comfortably on top despite running green and racing keenly in the early stages, and he did plenty wrong at Yarmouth under a penalty but finished with running left. The winner of his Yarmouth contest has some strong from (previously chased home Chaldean and then beaten four lengths when a non-stayer at Haydock by Naval Power). Despite jumping the path and getting outpaced midrace, he stuck to the task well and shaped himself as though he would learn a good deal. I like it when handicap debutants return to the scene of a positive debut. Although he is untried on what will likely be soft ground, this Kingman colt has plenty of stamina and should find conditions no problem as long as we don’t get the extreme. Utilis took a step forward at York and can follow him home.
3.35 Doncaster – Novemba (1pt win – 11/2 generally)
Bounce The Blues (1pt e/w – 6/1 Bet365, 11/2 generally)
Honey Sweet (1pt e/w – 40/1 e/w)
A good race, but the first preference is NOVEMBA, who drops in grade and trip and returns to soft ground for the first time since running a scorcher in Longchamp beaten 1 3/4 lengths by Real World last October. Surprisingly, it has taken connections this long to attempt seven furlongs again, and the return to soft ground is a big positive. She did plenty in the middle part of the race at Ascot before fading in the closing stages, and the performance was one of many that has suggested she would be well suited by a drop in distance. She will ensure this is a good test, and her jockey flies in from Germany to ride her. She won’t have many better opportunities than this, with everything in her favour.
BOUNCE THE BLUES is worth another go after Sandown’s disappointing run. She hasn’t had her ground since her seasonal return run behind Aldaary, and she wasn’t disgraced on her AW debut behind the useful Soft Whisper. She has excuses for her last two starts, and today’s combination of soft ground and seven furlongs here at Doncaster looks like her ideal scenario. She has twice run well here at Doncaster, including when given too much to do in this race two years ago. She should get a solid pace to aim at today, and she has been underestimated slightly in the market with William Buick a positive booking for the yard. Umm Kulthum could easily pop up here up in trip on the back of a fast finishing effort at York, but three horses ran a very similar race from the rear of the field that day which makes me suspect it wasn’t as good as it visually looked.
HONEY SWEET looks over-priced, considering she is 2-2 on soft or worse, including a heavy ground French Listed victory, and she is yet to encounter those conditions this season. She has had a productive year without getting her head in front and found six furlongs too short at Pontefract when a staying on third – and that looks strong form which ties in with Umm Kulthum. Her penultimate start at Goodwood saw her hampered twice when attempting to get the engine started, and she could never stretch out, so it’s well worth forgiving that run. At Carlisle, she had to wait for an out and gave Oscula the first run but stuck to the task strongly and closed down the winner at the line. She came good at the back end of last season, and her season is yet to really get going, but she could be a big improver switched back to the soft ground today at this more conventional track, and she will handle these conditions better than many in here. She really has little to find with those outside of Novemba and arguably has stronger form (behidn Oscula) than most in this field so I have had to add her in this morning.
13:50 Doncaster – Favourite Child (0.5 e/w – 20/1 Generally)
I want to give another chance to FAVOURITE CHILD who dissapointed at Pontefract and should have run an awful lot beter but her Goodwood run on her penaltimate start was an excellent effort behind two thriving sorts. She has been frustrating but ran a blinder here last September behind the smart Allayaali and there is little in the way of unexposed horses in this field to scupper her chances. This is a drop into Class 4 company in a handicap for the first time since running Adaay In Asia within a neck last August. She gets in here off of top weight and has a useful apprentice rider who gets on well with her and has a 29% strike rate on three-year-olds for the trainer this season. She is a bit of a punty bet but she is no forlorn hope, especially if the rain arrives.
Daryl Carter’s Best Bets
13:50 Doncaster – Favourite Child (0.5 e/w – 20/1 Generally)
2.25 Doncaster – Modern Dancer (NAP) (2pt win – 7/4 generally )
3.35 Doncaster – Novemba (1pt win – 11/2 generally) Bounce The Blues (1pt e/w – 6/1 Bet365, 11/2 generally) 15.35 Doncaster – Honey Sweet (1pt e/w – 40/1 e/w)
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