After two very near misses with his last two ante-post selections, Matty Sutcliffe is backing a familiar name to get the job done in the December Gold Cup…
Headline Tip – Fugitif 8/1 1pt WIN
The December Gold Cup has a habit of throwing up a winner at a nice price, with the shortest SP being 13/2 in the last ten renewals. Regular readers may remember we struck gold with Fugitif in last years’ race, so hopefully we can repeat that feat this time around.
Last Five Renewals
2023:
- Winner – Fugitif (8yo)
- Official rating – 151
- Cloth number – 2
- Weight – 11-3
- General track position throughout – rear
- Season – 4th in the November Gold Cup
- Course form – 2224 (22 on the New Course)
- Headgear – Tongue tie
- Record at the distance – 42254
2022:
- Winner – Coole Cody (10yo)
- Official rating – 143
- Cloth number – 10
- Weight – 10-12
- General track position throughout – Led/made all after the second
- Season – 2nd in a C3 C&D handicap over hurdles, fell in the November Gold Cup (going well)
- Course form – 10216442F (0644 on the New Course)
- Headgear – None
- Record at the distance – 0F1PU2163442F1
2021:
- Winner – Chatham Street Lad (8yo)
- Official rating – 141
- Cloth number – 14
- Weight – 10-10
- General track position throughout – Midfield
- Season – 1st Ballinrobe handicap chase, 5th Galway novice chase, 1st Cork handicap chase
- Course form – none
- Headgear – none
- Record at the distance – 41235
2020:
- Winner – Warthog (7yo)
- Official rating – 132
- Cloth number – 15
- Weight – 10-3
- General track position throughout – Led until 3rd, Prominent thereafter
- Season – 3rd November Gold Cup
- Course form – PU3
- Headgear – Tongue tie
- Record at the distance – PU133
2019:
- Winner – Frodon (6yo)
- Official rating – 164
- Cloth number – 1
- Weight – 11-12
- General track position throughout – led most
- Season – 1st Old Roan Chase, 2nd November Gold Cup
- Course form – 38011502 (38150 on the New Course)
- Headgear – Tongue tie
- Record at the distance – 1011112
Notable Ten Year Trends
- Official ratings of the winner is between 132-164 (last ten OR’s read 151, 143, 141, 132, 164, 134, 149, 136, 142, 133).
- Course form: 8/10 winner had at least three runs prior at Cheltenham. – 6/10 prepped in the November Gold Cup last time out.
- 7/10 winners either led or were prominent/in touch throughout, two from midfield and one from rear.
- Top weights 1/10 (Frodon), only 3/10 carried 11-3+, generally you need to be in the bottom half of the weights/cloth, only Frodon and Fugitif were in the higher end.
- 7/10 winners had previously contested at least one G1.
- Second season chasers 3/10
- Novice chasers 3/10
Leading Market Contenders
Last year’s winner Fugitif looks set for a strong bid to reclaim his crown. The son of Ballingarry prepped in the November edition last season en-route to success here, finishing fourth of fourteen behind Stage Star beaten 16L and posting an RPR of 149. It was a similar story on his debut this season, beaten a 13-length fifth of 15 posting a RPR of 150. That was his first run after a wind operation having struggled badly in his last two runs of the season, and he was an eye-catcher in rear having made headway under Sean Bowen in a race where generally you had to be prominent (first three home were all prominent). The handicapper has kindly dropped him 2lbs and he’s a pound below his win here last season, and while the yard could be in better form, he’s likely to be absolutely tuned up for this.
Il Ridoto was beaten a short head in this race last season by Fugitif and has to find 7lbs with him on that form. Rather frustratingly for our Ga Law ante-post bet, Il Ridoto got the better of that one in the November Gold Cup last month when convincingly drawing clear by four lengths under Freddie Gingell from 2lbs out of the handicap. The worry would be that he’s not backed up a winn since February 2021 when in France, and is now on a career high mark of 149. My immediate suspicion would be that he’ll be tuned up for the January Gold Cup once he comes down the handicap again.
Madara has seen support into as low as 6/1 for this after his eye-catching fourth behind Il Ridoto in the November Gold Cup, beaten seven lengths having raced unfavourably in rear under Tristan Durrell. Formerly with Keiran Burke, he was well supported for the Grand Annual after landing a Cheltenham/Leopardstown double, though it didn’t come off for him in March. He was dropped a pound for the last run, and I’d imagine should he line up prominent and Harry Skelton is on board, then he’ll be very competitive off a lovely low racing weight.
Ginny’s Destiny pulled up in the November Gold Cup when a 3/1 favourite, and good ground was seemingly the excuse. He was beaten 29L on seasonal debut last season prior to winning over C&D, and he has the perfect mould for a winner of this race. If the ground is on the softer side, then you’d have to imagine he’ll show up well. He looks fairly treated off a mark of 154 given his multiple pieces of form with Grey Dawning last season who’s now rated 165, but you’d also have to trust that seasonal debut was merely a blip.
Paul Nicholls has five in here, with the 162-rated Stage Star perhaps only entered to lower the others in the weights. While he did win the November Gold Cup, he pulled up in the January edition last season when 10/11F off top weight, and I don’t think Nicholls will take that chance again with him. We have to give Hitman a mention, who might’ve won the Old Roan had it not been for a mistake two out. His record second time up after a break reads 2112, and the form of his Ryanair third would bring him into contention, but his attitude, and the fact he’s currently 0-10, isn’t particularly something to be enthusiastic about.
Grandeur D’Ame was only put up 4lbs for his comfortable success at Chepstow in a race which has worked out well given GA Law and Il Ridoto finished 2nd and 1st respectively in the November Gold Cup, but he was probably primed more than most for that race and was comfortably beaten off this mark in this contest last season.
Join our 20k+ subscribers to receive the latest horse racing news, offers, and expert tips directly in your inbox — 100% free!
Outsiders To Consider
In Excelsis Deo is prone to a race ending error and that was the case last time out here behind Il Ridoto, but he’s one who can cope with his mark of 142 and should his jumping stand up, he fits the mould of a typical winner of this contest. 14/1 is fair judged on his Cheltenham win in April given the second has form figures of 21324 since, latterly beaten nine lengths in the Charlie Hall, but half of the price is banking on him standing up.
Seddon would be very interesting if turning up here for John McConnell. He’s 4/15 over fences and is 1-1 over C&D having won the Plate Handicap at the Festival in 2023. He’s been lightly raced over obstacles since, but confirmed his well being in the Autumn when winning two contests on the flat in Ireland. He’ll only be racing from 3lbs above his festival winning mark, where he had the measure of both Fugitif and Il Ridoto, and there’s not many options for him at this stage in his career. He might be a play on the day if turning up.
Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Tips – Get Ballyburn Onside Now
An impressive chase debut has got Matty Sutcliffe dreaming of big things for a Willie Mullins superstar, who could even be an outside shout for the Gold Cup… Brown Advisory Novices Chase – Ballyburn 4/1 2pt WIN (Also 1pt WIN for the Gold Cup at 40/1 with UniBet) We’re into the fifth week now of…
Mon 02 Dec 2024Verdict
Connections may have Veteran Chases in mind for FUGITIF on the other side of Christmas given he’s nine turning ten, but the general 8/1 looks more than fair for last years’ winner and this has likely been the plan the moment he stepped foot across the line in front last season.
His third in the G1 Clarence House behind Elixir De Nutz and Jonbon over an inadequate two miles proved his success here was no fluke, and given his record second time up off a break for Richard Hobson since his first wind surgery reads 1PU(though won either side of that letter)11, now has to be the time to catch him.
That seasonal debut was excellent given he’s a much better animal on good ground, and should that have brought him on then it’s impossible not to see him run very close here to reclaim his crown from a pound lower both on ratings and weights.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.