There are three renewals that didn’t take place this century; 2001, 2008 and 2022 so I’ve included the last 10 running’s for comparison rather than the last 10 years. Hopefully we can whittle down the confirmations and try to solve the puzzle that is the December Gold Cup.
KEY TRENDS
- Will have run at between 2m4f and 2m5f and should have won
- Has no more than 4 Chase wins unless they’ve had more than 20 runs where they should have at least 6 wins
- Preference for 7-year-olds and 8-year-olds
- Ran in the last 30 days and look to those coming from the Paddy Power Gold Cup
- Will have run at Cheltenham but doesn’t need to have won
- Only 1 winning favourite this century, but are we due one?
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 2/21 (9%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 0/21 (0%) & 0/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 5/21 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 7/21 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 6/21 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 0/21 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/21 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
Two 4yo winners from two 4yo runners and both came from Paul Nicholls’ yard but there are no 4yo’s entered and we’ve just one 5yo where you’d have to go back to 1966 to find a winner of that age. 6, 7 and 8yo’s all perform at a near 9% strike rate and this century 7yo’s and 8yo’s have been profitable to back blind to a single figure ROI. From the last 10 running’s, 8yo’s have again been profitable to back blind.
PRICE
- Favourites – 1/21 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 6/1 or shorter – 4/21 (19%) & 0/10 (0%)
- Between 13/2 and 8/1 – 9/21 (43%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Between 17/2 and 20/1 – 7/21 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
This century and in the last 10 running’s it’s been profitable to back all runners blind between 13/2 to 8/1 and 14/1 to 20/1. Favourites are -£18.5 to a level stake so depending on how you look at that, we’re possibly due one as they’re without a win since 2009.
WEIGHT
- Carried under 11 stone – 13/21 (62%) & 7/10 (70%)
There’s a huge spread all the way from 9 stone 9lbs up to 11 stone 12lbs so it’s tricky to whittle this down to any relevance for strike rate or profit to back blind.
Splitting at 11 stone shows 66 runners in each side from the last 10 renewals and we can see that 70% of the winners carried less than 11 stone which would return a £14.50 profit or a 22% ROI. In this century, the same split has 157 runners under 11 stone vs 133 over so the 62% of winners in the lower bracket is still higher than the 54% of runners in there. Backing that blind though would have resulted in a £25.50 loss vs a £39 loss in backing higher so it may be that we’re looking for a trend that just isn’t there.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 132 to 143 – 13/21 (62%) & 7/10 (70%)
132 to 143 seems to be the sweet spot in terms of Official ratings for winners and there are more winners to runners in that ratio that outside of it. Backing this band blind for the last 10 renewals would have made £23 but this century would have made a small loss of £5.50.
There have been 2 winners from 3 runners with an OR of 163 or 164 which I wanted to mention with Stage Star a potential runner in here. 3 horses rated 162 have also run and none have placed but both winners at 163 and 164 were also trained by Paul Nicholls.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 16 and 30 days ago – 16/21 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won last time out – 6/21 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Top 2 last time out – 12/21 (57%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham – 11/21 (52%) & 6/10 (60% and 6 of the last 7)
There has been just 1 winner this century who last ran more than 60 days ago with most winners having last run between 16-30 days ago. This holds a 10% strike rate and shows a small £5.50 profit to back blind this century.
Coming from the Paddy Power Gold Cup has been a notable trend with 11 winners this century from the 84 who tried and that is profitable to back blind of the long term. However, only Exotic Dancer in 2006 won both races in the same season this century.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 20/21 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 7/20 (35%) & 3/9 (33%)
Only Chatham Street Lad in 2020 hadn’t already run at Cheltenham but winning course form isn’t essential although many had been tried in better company or ran well here. Of the 7 horses who had run and won here, 5 of those had won more than once.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON between 2m 4f and 2m 5f – 18/21 (86%) & 10/10 (100%)
Every winner of this raced has at least run at 2m4f-2m5f before now and all of the last 16 winners had won at between or at those trips too. 14 of those 16 had either 1 or 2 wins at about this distance so that might be helpful to bring down the qualifiers.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had less than 10 RUNS over fences – 14/21 (67%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had no more than 4 WINS over fences – 19/21 (90%) & 8/10 (80%)
There seems to be a balance between experience and being unexposed but possibly the better measure is to look for horses who have no more than 4 wins over fences unless they have 20 or more chase runs to their name.
Trends Checklist
- Ga Law 7/7 – 8/1
- Il Ridoto 6/7 – 8/1
- Gemirande 6/7 – 12/1
- Guard Your Dreams 6/7 – 25/1
- Stage Star 5/7 – 8/1
- Fugitif 5/7 – 13/2
- In Excelsis Deo 5/7 – 12/1
- Madara 5/7 – 13/2
- Le Patron 5/7 – 14/1
- Grandeur D’Ame 4/7 – 12/1
- Shakem Up’arry 4/7 – 16/1
- James Du Berlais 4/7 – 12/1
- Pinkerton 4/7 – 16/1
- Sure Touch 3/7 – 25/1
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