There are three renewals that didn’t take place this century; 2001, 2008 and 2022 but I’ve looked at every running and compared to the last 10 completed renewals to see if I can highlight what it takes to land this feature handicap.
KEY TRENDS
- 8-year-olds are the best performing age group and are profitable to back blind
- No winning favourite since 2009 but 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites are profitable to back as a group
- Preferably carries less than 11 stone
- Preferably holds an OR of 132 to 143
- Likely to have last run 16 to 30 days ago
- Respect last time out winners and Paddy Power Gold Cup runners
- Preferably has 1 or 2 wins at 2m4f to 2m5f inclusive
- Has no more than 4 wins over fences or has run more than 20 times over fences
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 2/22 (9%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 0/22 (0%) & 0/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 5/22 (23%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 7/22 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 7/22 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 9yo – 0/22 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 10yo – 1/22 (5%) & 1/10 (10%)
Two 4yo winners from two runners and both came from Paul Nicholls’ yard but there are no 4yo’s entered. There are a couple of 5yo’s entered but you’d have to go back to 1966 to find a winner of that age.
6, 7 and 8yo’s all perform at 9% strike rate but it’s only the 7 and 8yo’s who are profitable to follow blind from that trio with 6yo’s the second heaviest loss maker.
8yo’s are the biggest profit maker blind from the last 10 renewals but 10yo’s also show a profit from a much smaller pool of runners.
PRICE
- Favourites – 1/22 (5%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 2nd, 3rd or 4th favourite – 12/22 (55%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 6/1 or shorter – 5/22 (23%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Between 13/2 and 8/1 – 9/22 (41%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Between 17/2 and 20/1 – 8/22 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
Only one winning favourite this century makes the jollies big loss makers if backing blind. Maybe we’re due one, but they have some way to go to claw back their £1 level stakes.
The main beneficiaries of this are 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites who are profitable to back blind as a trio and have found half or more of the winners in the periods measured. You can increase the level stake profit in the last 10 renewals by only choosing those who are 2nd or 4th in market at SP but you would need to include them this century to keep the bulk of the profit.
WEIGHT
- Carries 10 stone 13 or less – 13/21 (62%) & 7/10 (70%)
Splitting at 10-13 captures the bulk of winners in the low bucket and makes them profitable to back blind from the last 10 renewals. The strike rate from the last 10 renewals sits at 10% vs 5%.
This century, the split sits better at 11 stone or lower to bring the strike rates inline at 10% and 5% for the lower vs upper range.
Clearly this isn’t a single use trend but it’s well worth factoring into the overall profile of a typical winner.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 132 to 143 – 14/22 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
We’ve found around two-thirds of winners by looking at all runners with an OR between 132 and 143 (inclusive) but that hasn’t been profitable to back blind this century but has been from the last 10 renewals for a 30% ROI.
WEIGHT CARRIED AND OFFICIAL RATING COMBINED
- Holds an OR of 132 to 143 and carrying 10-13 or less – 12/22 (55%) & 6/10 (60%)
Combining the weight carried and the official rating held by runners finds more than half of the winners this century but isn’t profitable to back blind to SP although shows a modest 1% ROI to SP. From the last 10 renewals it’s found 6 winners which is profitable to back blind with an 18% ROI to SP which doubles to 36% if using Betfair SP.
Sitting at an 11% strike rate from the last 10 renewals dropping to 10% this century, it’s worth mentioning that while it will help find winners it’s also found 1 tricast this century and one forecast but nothing since 2005.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran between 16 and 30 days ago – 17/22 (77%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won last time out – 7/22 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Top 2 last time out – 13/22 (59%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham – 11/22 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners last ran between 16 and 30 days ago with just 5 winners outside that bracket this century. One of those came from further than 61 days ago so a recent run is beneficial and it’s profitable blind to back all runners coming from that 16 and 30 day break.
Last time out winners are also profitable to back blind across both periods measured with a solid £17.5 profit from the last 10 running’s from 32 qualifiers. No forecasts found in the last 10 though, for those interested in perming the qualifiers each year.
The Paddy Power Gold Cup from the November meeting at Cheltenham has also been a strong pointer towards this race. Even though Jagwar didn’t run in that race, it’s worth remembering he was well fancied and this is very much the first port of call as a Plan B.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 21/22 (95%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 7/21 (33%) & 2/9 (22%)
Only Chatham Street Lad in 2020 hadn’t already run at Cheltenham but winning course form isn’t essential although many had been tried in better company or ran well here. Of the 7 horses who had run and won here, 5 of those had won more than once.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had WON between 2m 4f and 2m 5f – 19/22 (86%) & 10/10 (100%)
All the last 17 winners had won at between 2m 4f and 2m 5f with 15 of those 17 having either 1 or 2 wins at about this distance.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had less than 10 RUNS over fences – 14/22 (64%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had no more than 4 WINS over fences – 20/22 (91%) & 8/10 (80%)
Experience over fences seems to be a turning trend with more winner now having at least 10 runs over fences before now which wasn’t the case earlier this century.
It’s more consistent across both periods to look for horses with no more than 4 wins over fences but you would remove that limit for runners with 20 or more runs over fences.