This race was formed in 1999 but was abandoned in 2005. Typically, I’d compare renewals rom this century to the last decade, but I’ve included the 1999 running to keep 25 total races analysed to see what it usually takes to land this first Grade 1 of the National Hunt season.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 7 to 10 years old
- Will have an OR of at least 161
- Will have run in the last 30 days or being have their first run of the season
- Respect runners from Aintree and Punchestown last time out
- Has won at Down Royal if having run here
- Likely has no more than 5 wins over fences
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 8/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 4/25 (16%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
9-year-olds perform at around a 10% strike rate while 6-year-olds top the list with 25%. 7,8 and 10-year-olds sit at close to 20% and there has been no winner aged 11 or older. 10-year-olds are profitable to follow blind this century but not in the last decade. 9-year-olds are profitable to back blind in the last decade but not this century so maybe preference goes to 9 and 10-year-olds.
PRICE
- Favourites – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)
Favourites show a £3.77 loss across all renewals which is 52p worse than follow second favourites blind. Not a major loss maker to cover 25 races but we’re interested in trying to see how we can make this race profitable.
In the last decade, favourites show a £1.75 loss and second favourites show a 50p profit. Again, no major deviation but favourtism alone wouldn’t be the best model to look at to find a money making angle in alone.
OFFICIAL RATING (since 2011)
- Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 9/14 (64%) & 9/10 (90%)
Backing all 161 or higher rated horses since this race was formed in 1999 would show a £4.25 profit but all 9 of those winners came in the last decade producing a £12.25 profit if following blind.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran at Aintree, Punchestown or Limerick – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Ran in the last 30 Days – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Ran 121 days ago or more – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Won last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Finished 2nd last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 1/10 (10%)
Most winners of this race placed Top 2 last time out and ran either in the last 30 days or were having their first run of the season. More than three-quarters of winners came from Aintree, Punchestown or Limerick which is profitable to back blind. This can be improved but excluding Punchestown but would reduce the 19 winners found to just 11.
In the last decade, the same rules apply however it has been profitable to follow runners coming from Punchestown and 2 winners from 3 runners last ran at Sandown which is a significant pointer should a horse qualify on those grounds.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Down Royal – 13/25 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at Down Royal – 9/13 (69%) & 6/8 (75%)
Since the race was formed it’s a fairly even split as to winner who did or did not have previous course form. In more recent renewals it’s been a benefit to have track form and what is consistent across both periods measured is that course form here should really be winning course form.
CAREER CHASE FORM
- Had 7 or more RUNS over fences – 14/24 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 1 to 5 WINS over fences – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Had won 50% or more of races over fences – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had won right-handed – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners of this race had no more than 5 chase wins and even more winners had previously won going right-handed.
More recent renewals have seen a bigger significance placed on chasing experience with more winners now having run at least 7 times over fences than was previously the norm. Across both periods measured it’s been consistent to expect that the winner will have NOT won half or more of their chase races.
GRADED FORM
- Had already won a Grade 1 – 18/25 (72%) & 10/10 (100%)
All the last 10 winners had won a Grade 1 before landing this and that has shown an 11% ROI to SP and a 71% ROI to Betfair SP.