Since the Dublin Racing Festival was introduced in 2018, we’ve seen some incredible action over the two days. Some races were run around this weekend before although a few of those have been upgraded for this Festival. I’ve looked at the 7 runnings since it’s inception but have gone back to the last decade for races where their conditions haven’t really changed.
I’ve also included a last winners list below the trends which offer a view to where they have historically headed to the Cheltenham Festival.
Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – 2m2f (Race Upgraded for DRF)
Trends
- ALL of the 8 winners finished Top 5 last time out
- 7 of the 8 winners carried between 10-0 and 10-12
- 6 of the 8 winners last ran between 24 and 63 days ago
- 6 of the 8 winners had run at 2m 4f or further in their career
- 6 of the 8 winners had an OR of between 116 and 126
- 5 of the 8 winners were aged 5 or 6
- 5 of the 8 winners were Irish Bred
Bonus – “4 winners wore headgear; 2 for the first time which is profitable blind with a 117% ROI”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2025 – Vischio (IRE) – Coral Cup (22nd)
2024 – Brucio (GB) – No Race
2023 – Ballybawn Belter (IRE) – No Race
2022 – Party Central (IRE) – Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (7th)
2021 – Heaven Help Us (IRE) – Coral Cup (1st)
2020 – Black Tears (GB) – Coral Cup (2nd)
2019 – Sassy Diva (IRE) – No Race
2018 – Alletrix (IRE) – No Race
Novice Chase (Grade 1) – 2m5½f
Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winners had won over at least 2m4f
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 37 and 45 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 2 in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite
- 7 of the last 10 winners had raced at 3 miles or further before in their career
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 6 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
- 5 of the last 10 winners last ran at Leopardstown
Bonus – “2 horses last ran in Kempton and both of those won this”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2015 – Ballyburn (IRE) – Brown Advisory (5th)
2024 – Fact To File (FR) – Brown Advisory (1st)
2023 – Mighty Potter (FR) – Turners Novices’ Chase (3rd)* Race no longer exists
2022 – Galopin Des Champs (FR) – Turners Novices’ Chase (Fell)* Race no longer exists
2021 – Monkfish (IRE) – Brown Advisory (1st)
2020 – Faugheen (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Chase (3rd)* Race no longer exists
2019 – La Bague Au Roi (FR) – No Race
2018 – Monalee (IRE) – Brown Advisory (2nd)
2017 – Disko (FR) – Turners Novices’ Chase (3rd)* Race no longer exists
2016 – Outlander (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Chase (Fell)* Race no longer exists
Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
Trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins (£13.91 profit blind)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 or 6 (7yo’s have the best strike rate with 2-7)
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 37 and 47 days ago
- 8 of the last 10 winners ran at Leopardstown last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run twice that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had not run further than 2m1f in their career
Bonus – “Willie Mullins has trained 12 of the last 13 winners with only Samcro not his”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2025 – Kopek Des Bordes – Supreme (1st)
2024 – Ballyburn (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1st)
2023 – Il Etait Temps (FR) – Supreme (5th)
2022 – Sir Gerhard (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1st)
2021 – Appreciate It (IRE) – Supreme (1st)
2020 – Asterion Forlonge (FR) – Supreme (4th)
2019 – Klassical Dream (FR) – Supreme (1st)
2018 – Samcro (IRE) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1st)
2017 – Bacardys (FR) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (PU)
2016 – Bleu Et Rouge (FR) – Albert Bartlett (Fell)
Dublin Chase (Grade 1) – 2m1f (Race Introduced for DRF)
Trends:
- ALL of the 8 winners last ran between 36 and 64 days ago
- ALL of the 8 winners were French Bred
- 7 of the 8 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
- 6 of the 8 winners were sent off favourite
- 6 of the 8 winners finished Top 2 last time out
- 6 of the 8 winners were aged 7 or 8
- 5 of the 8 winners had an OR of 167 or higher
- 5 of the 8 winners last ran at Leopardstown
Bonus – “7-year-olds have won 4 renewals and are profitable to back blind with a 92% ROI”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2025 – Solness (FR) – Champion Chase (4th)
2024 – El Fabiolo (FR) – Champion Chase (PU)
2023 – Gentleman De Mee (FR) – No Race
2022 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR) – Champion Chase (UR)
2021 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR) – Champion Chase (3rd)
2020 – Chacun Pour Soi (FR) – No Race
2019 – Min (FR) – Champion Chase (4th)
2018 – Min (FR) – Champion Chase (2nd)
Handicap Chase (Grade 3) – 2m5½f
Trends:
- ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT won at 3 miles or further
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried less than 11 stone
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 5 in the betting (no 2nd favourites)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at 3 miles or further
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 41 days ago
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of between 133 and 143
- 7 of the last 10 winners were Irish Bred
- 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7 (both profitable to back blind)
Bonus – “Willie Mullins is 0 from 32 runners in this race”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2025 – Backtonormal (IRE) – No Race
2024 – Heart Wood (FR) – No Race
2023 – The Goffer (IRE) – Ultima (4th)
2022 – Birchdale (IRE) – No Race
2021 – Off You Go (IRE) – No Race
2020 – Glamorgan Duke (IRE) – No Race
2019 – Whisperinthebreeze (GB) – NH Chase (Fell)* Race No Longer Exists
2018 – Last Goodbye (IRE) – Plate (10th)
2017 – A Toi Phil (FR) – No Race
2016 – Empire Of Dirt (IRE) – Plate (1st)
Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) – 2m
Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8
- 9 of the last 10 winners were sent off 6/4 or shorter (8 favourites)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at 2m3½f or further in their career
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran at Leopardstown or Fairyhouse
- 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 165 or higher (Mares allowance added)
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran between 27 and 37 days ago
- 6 of the last 10 winners were unbeaten that season
Bonus – “Since 2005, no winners has come outside the Top 3 in the betting”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2025 – State Man (FR) – Champion Hurdle (Fell)
2024 – State Man (FR) – Champion Hurdle (1st)
2023 – State Man (FR) – Champion Hurdle (2nd)
2022 – Honeysuckle (GB) – Champion Hurdle (1st)
2021 – Honeysuckle (GB) – Champion Hurdle (1st)
2020 – Honeysuckle (GB) – Mares’ Hurdle (1st)
2019 – Apples Jade (FR) – Champion Hurdle (6th)
2018 – Supasundae (GB) – Stayers’ Hurdle (2nd)
2017 – Petit Mouchoir (FR) – Champion Hurdle (3rd)
2016 – Faugheen (IRE) – No Race
Handicap Hurdle – 2m
Trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish Bred
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5 and 7
- 8 of the last 10 winners had run in the last 50 days (other two inside 70 days)
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran in a Handicap Hurdle
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less
- 7 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 131 or less
Bonus – “Charles Byrnes has 3 winners from 8 runners showing a 200% ROI”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2015 – McLaurey (IRE) – County Hurdle (16th)
2024 – Lord Erskine (IRE) – No Race
2023 – Gaelic Warrior (GER) – Turners Novices’ Hurdle (2nd)
2022 – Call Me Lyreen (IRE) – County Hurdle (14th)
2021 – Drop The Anchor (IRE) – County Hurdle (7th)
2020 – Thosedaysaregone (IRE) – Coral Cup (3rd)
2019 – Off You Go (IRE) – No Race
2018 – Off You Go (IRE) – No Race
2017 – Ice Cold Soul (IRE) – No Race
2016 – Henry Higgins (IRE) – County Hurdle (21st)
Mares’ I.N.H Flat Race (Grade 2) – 2m (Race Upgraded for DRF)
Trends
- 7 of the 8 winners only had one run that season
- 7 of the 8 winners were NOT the favourite
- 7 of the 8 winners won last time out
- 6 of the 8 winners were sent off 9/1 or bigger
- 5 of the 8 winners did NOT run inside the last 50 days
- 5 of the 8 winners were trained by Willie Mullins
Bonus – “Jody Townend has 3 winners from 5 rides and shows a monster 700% ROI”
Winners and Cheltenham Race Run (Finishing Position):
2025 – Bambino Fever (IRE) – Champion Bumper (1st)
2024 – Fleur Au Fusil (FR) – Champion Bumper (7th)
2023 – Fun Fun Fun (IRE) – Champion Bumper (15th)
2022 – Lily Du Berlais (GB) – No Race
2021 – Grangee (FR) – Champion Bumper (6th)
2020 – Darling Daughter (IRE) – Champion Bumper (15th)
2019 – Santa Rossa (IRE) – No Race
2018 – Relegate (IRE) – Champion Bumper (1st)