One of the most eagerly anticipated races of the summer is the 1m6f Ebor handicap at York, contested by some of the biggest names. The British flat’s premier handicap is put under the microscope by Dave Young, as he helps you towards finding the winner.
Did you now that The Ebor was named after the Roman name for York, Eboracum? Nope, neither did I until I started to delve into this race many years ago but with the first lesson out the way I’ve looked at every running this century (and just the last 10) to see if I can help us find the winner of the most valuable flat handicap in Europe!
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 4-6 with between 2 and 5 career flat wins
- Look to those in the top half of the draw and bonus points for stall 18 or higher
- Should have an OR of 100+ but likely to be rated 105+
- Last time out winners should be respected
- Should have run at 14f in their career and 14f or further last time out
- Ideally want a horse who has less than 5 runs this season and just 1 win
AGE
* 3yo’s were excluded from the race since the 2019 running
- 4yo – 5/24 (21%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 7yo – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
There were a couple of 3yo winners back in 2000 and 2001, but the spread over both this century and 10-year periods speaks favourably for 5 and 6-year-olds as they have taken around 70% of their respective renewals.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 12/1 or Shorter – 12/24 (50%) & 8/10 (80%)
Being such a prestigious and valuable Handicap it’s no surprise that this is a very competitive race and as such, favourites have only landed about 10% of the running’s. There have been a couple of shorter priced favourites but in general things such as the draw can have a big influence in the market so overall let’s just say that picking the favourite is a lazy way to overall losses in here. However, in recent years we’ve seen a jump from 50% to 80% of the winners being priced 12/1 or shorter so the market might help guide us.
DRAW
* Excluding the 2008 running at Newbury
- Drawn in the TOP half – 18/23 (78%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 5/23 (22%) & 3/10 (30%)
High draws, or at least being in the top half of the stalls is a big help and as mentioned above it will influence the market. We’ve had 9 winners from stall 18 or higher in the last 23 (Excluding that 2008 Newbury switch) and 5 of those came in the last 11 renewals.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 15/24 (63%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 105 or more – 5/24 (21%) & 5/10 (50%)
This has always been a classy race with around two-thirds of the winners being rated 100 or more, but in the last 10 we’ve seen all bar one winner rated above that number and they were rated 99 themselves, so class seems to be prevailing. There have been 5 winners rated 105 or higher and all of those came in the last 10 years.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed – 11/24 (46%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 14f – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 14f or further – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 42 days or less – 18/24 (75%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 43 days or more – 6/24 (25%) & 5/10 (50%)
Almost the perfect storm in terms of finishing positions last time out as all 4 of the last 10 who placed last time out actually won. We’ve seen 8 of the last 24 win last time out but a further 3 place in that period so ultimately, winning last time out would be a positive but not a deal breaker. More recently there been an increase in winners having run at 14f last time out as well as including those who ran at 14f or further. Also 6 of last 24 won here having a 43 day or more break, but interestingly 5 of those came in the last 10 running’s so freshness appears to be on the minds of many now, or at least it seems to be helpful in finding the winner.
COURSE FORM
* Excluding the 2008 running at Newbury
- Winners who had RUN at York – 9/23 (39%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 2/9 (22%) & 1/6 (17%)
I’d imagine it’s impossible to ever suggest a previous course run would be a negative so that’s possibly why there’s been an increase from 39% to 60% of the winners from the last 24 and last 10 having run here before the Ebor. Doesn’t seem essential for those to have won, but I’d certainly want to have seen them run well.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 14f – 17/24 (71%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at 14f – 12/17 (71%) & 6/9 (67%)
It might be that some horses improve for the trip but with over 70% of the winners already having run at 14f before now and around 70% of those having won at the trip too, it’s certainly something to look for. We’ve seen 9 of the last 10 winners having experience at the trip so again, there might just be more emphasis in recent years on trying to find the perfect method to land this.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 19/24 (79%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 15/24 (63%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 11/24 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 7/24 (29%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 0 wins this season – 9/24 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 1 win this season – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 2 wins this season – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 3 wins this season – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
There has been a definite change in the last 10 years when it comes to winning this race as this century we’ve had 7 winners with 5 or more runs that season, but none of the last 10. This does reflect in the season wins too, but really the 80% for this century and 90% for the last 10 winners having no more than 1 win seems to be stable enough. So, we probably want a horse who has less than 5 runs this season and just the 1 win.
GROUP/LISTED FORM
- Ran in Listed company or better last time out – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
Given the mention earlier to the Official Ratings of winners and how in recent years we’ve seen another step forward, it’s hardly surprising that there’s an increase from 33% vs 50% of winners having run in a Listed race or better last time out in the last 10 years versus this century. I’d be careful not to ‘double count’ those who tick both these boxes, as they may just about be one in the same. Still worth noting though.
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