The Ebor is the most valuable flat handicap in Europe, and I’ve looked at every running this century and compared against the last 10 to see if we can work out what it takes to land this prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 4-6 with preference to those aged 6
- Bonus if drawn in stall 14 or higher
- Should have an OR of 100+ but respect those rated 105+
- Last time out winners should be respected but not relied on
- Should have run at 14f in their career and 14f or further last time out
- Probably a horse who has less than 5 runs and no more than 1 win this season
- Look to those who prepped in Listed company or better last time out
BONUS TRENDS – Since 2019 and the exclusion of 3-year-olds
- All winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
- Two winning favourites
- Three winners aged 6
- Three winners from the Top 2 in the betting
- Three winners with an OR of 108
- Four winners had NOT won at the trip
- Four winners prepped in a Listed race or better
Focused Trends
AGE – (3yo’s were excluded from the race since the 2019 running)
- 3yo – 2/25 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 4yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 7yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
There were a couple of 3yo winners back in 2000 and 2001 but as they’ve been excluded from this race since 2019, they’re no longer applicable.
Since 2019, three winners were aged 6, two winners were aged 4 and one winner was aged 5. All aged bar 6-year-olds are loss makers to follow blind, and 6-year-olds themselves only show a £2 profit from 28 qualifiers.
Preference must go to the winner being no older than 6 with respect to those who are 6.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 12/1 or Shorter – 14/25 (56%) & 8/10 (80%)
Just three winning favourites this century with 2 of those coming in the last 5 years. They are loss makers to follow blind though, unless you started in those last 5 years which would be from 2020 but almost coincides with 2019 where 3-year-olds were excluded from the race.
Most winners across both periods were priced 12/1 or shorter but this would be a loss maker to follow blind this century although you’d make a very small profit if you back all runners with an SP bigger than 12/1 but on in the last decade.
DRAW – (excluding the 2008 running at Newbury)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in stall 14 or higher – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
Over the long term, it’s been beneficial to be drawn in stall 14 or higher which shows a 70% ROI just backing those runner’s blind. It’s not been a profitable angle in the last decade with as many winners coming from the lowest two racing stalls as the highest two.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 16/25 (64%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners with an OR of 105 or more – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners with an OR of 99 to 101 – 10/25 (40%) & 2/10 (20%)
We’re seeing a higher rated horse typically winning this race, again with the exclusion of 3-year-olds since 2019 this will have had a bearing as it’s easier to achieve a higher OR as an older horse.
Winners with an OR of between 99 and 101 have found plenty of winners this century for a £63.50 profit from 98 bets for a 65% ROI. There have been just two winners in this band in the last 10 running’s but still showing a £14 profit from 30 bets for a 47% ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed – 12/25 (48%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 14f – 14/24 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 42 days or less – 18/25 (72%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 43 days or more – 7/24 (28%) & 6/10 (60%)
You should respect last time out winners but not rely on them to find the winner of this race. Last time out winners found 4 winners from 46 in the last 10 for a £13 profit but 7 from 116 this century for a -£19.50 loss.
There is a bit of a turning trend with 6 of the last 10 winners having last ran 43 days ago or more but it’s 7/7 from the last 14 runnings.
COURSE FORM – (excluding the 2008 running at Newbury)
- Winners who had RUN at York – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 2/9 (22%) & 1/6 (17%)
Previous course form isn’t essential nor is winning course form for those who had been here. Still, you’d hope they had run well here if coming to the track before, and you should be concerned with runners who were well beaten here before.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 14f – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Winners who had WON at 14f – 12/18 (67%) & 5/9 (56%)
Most winners of this race have run at 14 furlongs before now and more winners than not had also previously won at this trip. That said, 4 of the last 6 winners since the changes to the race in 2019 had NOT won at the trip.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 20/25 (80%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 7/25 (28%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 0 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 1 win this season – 11/25 (44) & 4/10 (40%)
- 2 wins this season – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 3 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
There has been a definite change in the last 10 years when it comes to winning this race as this century, we’ve had 7 winners with 5 or more runs that season, but none of the last 10. This does reflect in the season wins too. Ideally, we want a horse who has less than 5 runs this season and no more than one win this season.
GROUP/LISTED FORM
- Ran in Listed company or better last time out – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
Again, with the change in 3-year-olds being able to run in here we see that more horses in modern renewals had prepped in a listed race or better than previously was the case. Since 2019, 4 of the 6 winners prepped in a better class race so that could well be a trend that has already turned.