The Ebor is the most valuable flat handicap in Europe and a race that every trainer, jockey, owner and punter would love to find the winner of.
I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals and compared against the last 10 to see if we can work out what it takes to land this prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Will be aged 4 to 6-years-old
- Likely to be sent off 12/1 or shorter and respect favourites
- Ideally drawn in stall 14 or higher or if low then drawn close to the wing
- Will hold and OR of at least 100
- Placed Top 6 at least last time out
- Likely to have no more than 4 runs this season and preferably has won this season
BONUS TRENDS – Since 2019 and the exclusion of 3-year-olds
- ALL of the 7 winners held an OR of 101 or higher
- ALL of the 7 winners had no more than 4 runs this season
- 6 of the 7 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter
- 6 of the 7 winners were drawn in stall 14 or higher or from 1 or 2
- 5 of the last 7 winers had NOT won at 14f before now
- 5 of the last 7 winners had won this season
Focused Trends
AGE – (3yo’s were excluded from the race since the 2019 running)
- 3yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 4yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 7yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
The age focussed trends will be impacted by the exclusion of 3yo’s since 2019 but there has only been one winner of the race in the last 25 years who came 25 years ago so they would have been all but ruled out anyway.
5 and 6yo’s have been the way to play for most of both periods covered although 4yo’s are not devoid of winner either. Ultimately, you’re looking for a runner between 4 and 6-years-old but that’s not going to whittle the field down too much
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (12%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 12/1 or Shorter – 14/25 (56%) & 9/10 (90%)
There have been 4 winning favourites in the last 25 renewals and 3 of those came in the last 10 running’s meaning favourites are now profitable to back blind.
Most winners are sent off 12/1 or shorter, but this is another trend that is helped but recent renewals with 9 of the last 10 winners ticking this box.
DRAW – (removed the 2008 running from Newbury from this)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in stall 14 or higher – 18/24 (75%) & 6/10 (60%)
The draw has a decent influence on this race with most winners coming from stall 14 (before non runners) or higher. There have been 2 winners in the last 10 who came from stalls 1 and 2 so maybe you’d excuse a low drawn horse if they’re on or very close to a wing
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 16/25 (64%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Winners with an OR of 105 or more – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners with an OR of 101 to 109 – 14/25 (56%) & 10/10 (100%)
All of the last 10 winners held an OR of 100 or more, in fact they were all rated between 101 and 109. With 6 winners rated 100 or higher from the 15 renewals prior it’s another turning trend that appears to have already turned.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Placed – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 14f – 14/24 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 42 days or less – 17/25 (68%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 43 days or more – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
Last time out winners are not profitable to back blind but they do produce the highest number of winners. Placing Top 6 last time out has found all of the last 10 winners and 21 of the last 25, so maybe that’s the marker to use.
A bit of a imbalanced trend is the number of days since last racing. There’s not much in it, but where running in the last 6 weeks would be a positive it doesn’t seem to matter as much as it used to.
COURSE FORM – (removed the 2008 running from Newbury from this)
- Winners who had RUN at York – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at York – 2/9 (22%) & 1/6 (17%)
It’s preferable but not essential to have raced at York before now and even those who had run here you wouldn’t expect them to have won here but again it would be preferable.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 14f – 18/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners who had WON at 14f – 13/18 (67%) & 4/8 (50%)
Most winners of this race have run at 14 furlongs before now and more winners than not had also previously won at this trip. That said, 5 of the last 7 winners since the changes to the race in 2019 had NOT won at the trip
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 6/25 (24%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 0 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 1 win this season – 12/25 (48) & 5/10 (50%)
- 2 wins this season – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 3 wins this season – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
There’s been a change in this contest with more recent winners not having quite as many runs as those who won this race further back. The ceiling is 4 runs this season and preferably the horse will have won this season too.
GROUP/LISTED FORM
- Ran in Listed company or better last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
There was a potential change in this race in terms of class of race prepped in by the winner however last years winner was back in Handicap company so it’s on ice for now. Still, with the OR rising for winners of this race it’s more likely than it was that the winner comes from a listed race or better last time out but more winners than not do NOT tick that box.
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