Eclipse Trends 2026 Sandown

Some big names are on the honours roll for the Eclipse and I can’t remember a bad winner of this race.

Last year saw Delacroix back on track when sent off as the second favourite, so while he was a likely winner, he wasn’t the most likely according to the betting and is that something we should take note of?

I’ve looked at the last 25 renewals and the last 10 to identify what it typically takes to land this race.

KEY TRENDS

3-year-olds are the ones to side with especially those who are 1^st or 2^nd favourite, but won’t have run at Sandown
Will be sent off 8/1 or shorter
Will hold an OR of at least 115 but ideally 120 or higher
Placed last time out but preferably won
Last raced at Royal Ascot or in the Epsom Derby
Those who have been to Sandown are expected to have won here too
Will have already won at about 10 furlongs and/or in a Group 1
Should have 2-4 runs and has won this season

Focussed Trends

AGE

3yo – 11/25 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
4yo – 6/25 (24%) & 1/10 (10%)
5yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)

3-year-olds have won now won the last 5 renewals and 7 of the last 10 (8 of the last 11 too) and all of those winners were either the first or second favourite. There have been 12 qualifiers from the last 10 renewals and with 7 winners it shows a healthy 87% ROI to SP and 100% ROI if using Betfair SP.

FAVOURITES

First favourites – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
First and second favourites – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)
Priced 8/1 or shorter – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
Favourites in a field of 7 or less – 9/14 (64%) & 4/8 (50%)
Favourites in a field of 8 or more – 2/12 (16%) & 1/2 (50%)

Favourites are small loss makers blind and while bringing in second favourites will reduce that deficit to a negligible amount and find most winner, it’s still a small loss maker.

Favourites have performed better in small field over the course of the last 25 renewals but across the last 10 they have both performed at a 50% strike-rate so that’s more of a red herring that it might have been.

All bar two winners in the last 25 were priced bigger than 8/1, so while maybe we’re due a shock, typically this race doesn’t produce one.

DRAW

Drawn in the TOP half – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 11/25 (44%) & 4/10 (40%)

No major bias in the draw being in the top of bottom half as an overall view but again splitting the renewals by fields of 7 or less and 8 or more shows a slightly different view. In fields of 8 or more two thirds of winners were drawn in the top half and in fields of 7 or less the split is 6 from the top half and 8 from the bottom half. Not hugely relevant I don’t think, but interesting none the less.

OFFICIAL RATING

Winners with an OR of 118 or more – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (90%)
Winners with an OR of 120 or more – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)

All winners have held an OR of 110 and all bar one winner held an OR of 115 or higher.

It’s a hard position to pitch where the bottom line should sit, but most winners are rated 118 or higher and around two-thirds are rated 120 or more. That said, there has been a shift in 3-year-olds landing the spoils and while 4 of the last 5 had achieved the bar of 120, it might just be harder for them to have done so.

LAST TIME OUT

Ran at 10 furlongs or more – 19/25 (76%) & 9/10 (90%)
Won last time out – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
Placed last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)
Ran in the last 5 weeks – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
Ran in a Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
Ran at Royal Ascot* – 15/25 (60%) & 3/10 (30%)
Ran in the Derby – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)

*Including the 2005 in these figures which was run at York

Over the last 25 years more winners than not did NOT win last time out but 7 of the last 10 did and overall you’d expect your horse to have at least placed on their last run.

They’re likely to be coming from either Royal Ascot of the English Derby which confirms the reasoning behind them most likely coming from a Group 1 last time out.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 7/25 (28%) & 1/10 (10%)
Winners who had WON at Sandown – 6/7 (86%) & 1/1 (100%)

Most winners of this race had NOT been to Sandown before although of those who had run here, only one had NOT won here too.

ALL of the 3-year-old winners of this race had not run at Sandown.

DISTANCE FORM

Winners who had RUN over about 10 furlongs – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
Winners who had WON over about 10 furlongs – 15/19 (79%) & 7/8 (88%)

Most winners had run and won over about 10 furlongs before now.

SEASON FORM

Had raced 2 -4 times – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Had won a race – 18/25 (72%) & 9/10 (90%)

This won’t whittle the field down too much but most winners across both periods had at least 2 runs that season and no more than 4. Most winners had won a race that season too.

GROUP FORM

Had won a Group race – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Had won a Group 1 – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
Had won a Group 2 or better – 23/25 (92%) & 8/10 (80%)

This is a proper race and that’s confirmed with the form brought into this contest being expectant of the winner of this contest to have already won at least a Group 2 but more likely is already a Group 1 winner.

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