Eider Chase Trends 2026 - Dave Young's Stats Analysis

The Eider Chase is seen as a Grand National Trial with Comply Or Die taking both in 2008. There are 24 fences to be jumped over a trip of 4m1½f.

There have been five years where the race did not take place but I’ve looked at all running this century that did go ahead and compared those with the last 10 renewals to highlight any notable patterns.

KEY TRENDS

9-year-olds are profitable to back blind and have the highest win strike-rate
Respect any runner with an SP below 5/2 but also respect 3^rd and 4^th favourites in general
Holds an Official Rating of 131 to 140 and is carrying 10-13 to 11-6
Not wearing any headgear (Including tongue-tie)
No more than 2 wins this season
Has won over 3m2f or further before now

Focused Trends

AGE

7yo – 2/21 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)
8yo – 4/21 (19%) & 1/10 (10%)
9yo – 10/21 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
10yo – 3/21 (14%) & 0/10 (00%)
11yo – 2/21 (10%) & 1/10 (10%)

9-year-olds are the biggest winners in this race, both in terms of volume and strike-rate and they’re profitable to back blind too. There have been older winners, but none since 2017.

In the last decade the same picture is painted although to a higher level with a bigger strike-rate, percentage of winners and profit just backing 9-year-olds blind

PRICE

Favourites – 4/21 (19%) & 2/10 (20%)
3^rd or 4^th in the betting – 8/21 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)

Favourites are a loss maker both this century and in the last 10 renewals. They outperform second favourites who are winless since 2009, but 3^rd and 4^th favourites are both profitable to back blind this century and in the last 10.

There has only been one runner with an SP or sub 5/2 this century which was a winner and there have been 2 winners from 8 runners priced between 5/2 and 4/1 which show a profit blind too.

RATINGS AND WEIGHT

Winners with an OR between 131 and 140 – 13/21 (62%) & 6/10 (60%)
Winners carrying 10-13 to 11-6 – 13/21 (62%) & 7/10 (70%)

Using the OR band or the weight band on their own are profitable blind across both periods.

When combining both these metrics you find 8 winners this century with an 85% ROI to SP. Look at the last decade, it’s found 5 winners and returned a 28% ROI to SP

LAST TIME OUT

Won last time out – 7/21 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
Didn’t complete last time out – 4/21 (19%) & 3/10 (30%)

Last time out winners have been a loss maker across both periods but curiously in the last 10 running’s we’ve had 3 winners who failed to complete last time out which is now a money maker to follow blind and increases to 4 winners from the last 11 running’s of this race.

COURSE FORM

Winners who had RUN at Newcastle – 7/21 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
Winners who had WON at Newcastle – 3/7 (43%) & 3/5 (60%)

Having experience at this track hasn’t been essential to landing this race but the trend is turning somewhat with the last 10 renewals being split down the middle for horse who had or hadn’t been here. Those who had run here had either won or placed well, so good course form is always a positive.

CHASE FORM

Had won at 3 miles 2 furlongs or further – 19/21 (90%) & 9/10 (90%)
Winners who had 3 to 5 runs this season – 15/21 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
Winners who had 0 to 2 wins this season – 19/21 (90%) & 9/10 (90%)

Most winners of this race had 3-5 runs already this season and had no more than 2 wins. There have been just 2 winners of this race who had NOT won over 3m2f or further before taking this.

HEADGEAR

Winners without headgear or a tongue-tie – 15/21 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)

Most winners of this race are not sporting headgear or a tongue-tie and the 3 winners in a tongue-tie did not wear headgear too.