Epsom isn’t all about classics and the Epsom Dash is as fast and furious as it gets for sprinters. A nice handicap with plenty of hard luck stories each year but I’ve looked at all running’s this century and compared to the last decade, to see if we can work out what the typical winner looks like.
KEY TRENDS
- Likely to be aged 4 to 8-years-old with both 4 & 6yo’s profitable to back blind
- Avoid favourites and look to runners with an SP of 17/2 to 12/1 or 22/1 to 40/1
- Draw wouldn’t be the biggest pointer although it is a bonus to be the lowest drawn runner (including withdrawals)
- Look to horses carrying 8-0 to 9-0 and officially rated 82 to 99
- Preference goes to horses with 3 or 4 runs at Epsom or has not run here at all
- Shouldn’t have won over further than 6 furlongs
- Probably ran at 5 furlongs last time out
- Respect headgear runners providing it’s not for the first time
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 7yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 9yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Three of the last five winners were aged 6-years-old and backing both these and 4yo’s blind across both periods has been profitable. 5-year-olds would be the biggest loss-making age to follow blind across both periods and ultimately, 6-year-olds have the highest winning strike rate.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 17/2 to 12/1 – 7/24 (29%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 22/1 to 40/1 – 5/24 (21%) & 4/10 (40%)
No winning favourite since 2013 and then 2001 before that so they look like runners to avoid.
Horses with an SP between 17/2 and 12/1 have found plenty of winners and show a profit blind across both periods (thanks to the last decade). A similar story is true for runners priced between 22/1 to 40/1 however they show a much higher ROI with 40% this century and 100% in the last decade.
DRAW
- Drawn in the LOWEST 4 stalls – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in the HIGHEST 4 stalls – 4/24 (17%) & 0/10 (0%)
The winning-most stall across both periods is the lowest stall (considering withdrawals) but being drawn on a wing isn’t the biggest advantage if you’re on the high end of the draw. You can win from anywhere though; you just need some luck in a race like this.
WEIGHT AND RATING
- Carrying 8-0 to 9-0 – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Rated 82 to 99 – 18/24 (75%) & 8/10 (80%)
Across both periods you’d find most winners in the weight band of 8 stone to 9 stone. This century it shows a ROI off 11.5% to SP and 22% in the last decade.
You’d also show a small profit backing all runners with an OR of 82 to 99 but it’s just £6.5 this century and £4 in the last decade.
If you combine these measures, you would have found all of the 8 winners this decade but increased your ROI to 27% and this century it would have found 16 winners with an increased ROI to 20%.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 2/24 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 16-30 days – 9/24 (37%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran at 5f – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (10%)
Most winners of this race did NOT win last time out. Runners who last ran between 16 and 30 days ago show the biggest profit across both periods although runners who had 0 runs this season are also profitable to back blind.
Most winners last ran at 5f although it’s worth remembering Dandy Nicholls who is the only trainer who had horses who last ran 7f in 2005 and 2007 and it produced 1 winner from the duo.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Epsom – 14/24 (58%) & 5/10 (50%)
Course form is often going to be a positive but there’s something about Epsom. While it’s around 50/50 for whether winners had run here before or not, the highest performing runners vs expectation are those who had either 3 or 4 previous runs here. Horses having their first look out-perform those who have been here once or twice prior.
If you backed runners with 3 or 4 runs here you would have found 6 winners from 53 runners this century for an ROI of 110% this century and 2 winners from 21 runners for an ROI of 81% in the last decade.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at further than 6f – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at further than 6f – 3/12 (25%) & 0/4 (0%)
I know this a 5-furlong dash, but it was relevant to look at how far winners of this race had run and won at. It’s near 50/50 for winners having run at further than 6f, but most of those hadn’t won over further than 6f. The best strike rates come from horses who had their maximum win at either 5.5 furlongs or 6 furlongs rather than just at 5 furlongs.
HEADGEAR
- Did NOT wear Headgear – 14/24 (58%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Wore headgear NOT for the first time – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
No winner of this race this century was sporting first time headgear. Runners in headgear have a better strike-rate than non-headgear wearing runners and it’s shown a 104% ROI to SP this century and 67% in the last decade.
COMBINATION TRENDS
- Aged 6
- Stall 13+
- Rated 82-99
- Carrying 8-0 to 9-0
- Has Run At Epsom
- Last Ran 21-30 Days Ago
5 qualifiers of the above checklist have been found this century and three of those won for a staggering 1360% ROI to SP!
- SP of 12/1 or bigger
If we add in the condition of holding an SP of 12/1 or bigger it brings those 5 down to 3 and ALL three of those won. This shows an ROI of 2333% but they don’t come along too often. It has to be mentioned though, as it did find the 2021 winner Mokaatil at 25/1.
HONOUR ROLL – (GB if not noted)
- 2024 – Dream Composer (FR)
- 2023 – Navello
- 2022 – Tees Spirit
- 2021 – Mokaatil
- 2019 – Ornate
- 2018 – Tanasoq (IRE)
- 2017 – Caspian Prince (IRE)
- 2016 – Caspian Prince (IRE)
- 2015 – Desert Law (IRE)
- 2014 – Caspian Prince (IRE)
- 2013 – Duke Of Firenze
- 2012 – Stone Of Folca
- 2011 – Captain Dunne (IRE)
- 2010 – Bertoliver
- 2009 – Indian Trail
- 2008 – Holbeck Ghyll (IRE)
- 2007 – Hogmaneigh (IRE)
- 2006 – Desert Lord
- 2005 – Fire Up The Band
- 2004 – Caribbean Coral
- 2003 – Atlantic Viking (IRE)
- 2002 – Rudis Pet (IRE)
- 2001 – Bishops Court
- 2000 – Astonished