It is the pinnacle in the careers of so many horses, and this year’s Epsom Derby is full of depth and intrigue. With 16 runners and reputations on the line, Joe Napier previews this year’s premier Classic, giving his verdict below.
Auguste Rodin bounced back from an extremely disappointing 2,000 Guineas effort to secure Derby glory for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore in 2023.
CITY OF TROY
(Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore)
It is one of the most difficult things as a racing writer when a horse becomes an imponderable, unpredictable menace. City Of Troy has entered that realm, putting in one of the great juvenile seasons in recent memory in 2023 then switching the lights out early when a wholly uncompetitive ninth in the 2,000 Guineas on return.
Trying to be objective, let’s ask what the positives are. First, there’s his pedigree, which suggests 1m would never have been ideal for him and that middle distances will suit better. Secondly, there’s the likely softer ground, on which he blitzed to success in last season’s Dewhurst and which was not prevailing at Newmarket. We also know O’Brien can pull a Lazarus trick in this race, having done so with Auguste Rodin a year ago.
The negatives? Well regardless of his stablemate’s renaissance, his Newmarket run was dire, while he also played up in the stalls. Equally, regardless of the noise from his trainer, he did not look to have grown up between two and three, and if that is truly the case, that will impact him even more at this venue than it did in the Guineas. Much to ponder about the imponderables, but can we really consider him a good betting proposition?
ANCIENT WISDOM
(Charlie Appleby/William Buick)
In a regular year, Ancient Wisdom’s run in the Dante, finishing six lengths behind the impressive Economics, would not entitle him to single-figure quotes, especially as there was a Classic Trial winning performance which emerged from a neighbouring box. However, Arabian Crown was subsequently ruled out, and the digging began into Ancient Wisdom’s price.
He may yet go off favourite, which would have seemed remarkable two weeks ago. With no Economics to contend with though, his York run now looks more credible and Charlie Appleby insists he was not 100% that day. The further step up to 1m4f would look beneficial on that evidence too.
He also won his Group 1 Futurity Trophy on heavy ground at two, so there is even more to be positive about. All of the positives emanate from his back catalogue, but there are reasons to be hopeful, even if a son of Dubawi has never won the Derby.
Epsom Derby Pinstickers’ Guide – All 16 Runners Analysed For Classic Showpiece
We now know the full field for the 2024 Betfred Derby at Epsom and here at GG we take a look at all 16 runners for the iconic Group 1 contest. Check out everything you need to know about all the three-year-old colts bidding for Classic glory at 4:30pm on Saturday afternoon… 1. Ambiente Friendly…
Thu 30 May 2024
LOS ANGELES
(Aidan O’Brien/Wayne Lordan)
Given his recent backing, there will be some who consider it a slight negative that he is a stable’s second string. However, there would have been mutiny and outrage if Ryan Moore elected to ride this unbeaten stablemate of City Of Troy, so backers should not be disheartened.
Los Angeles has won three from three in relatively workmanlike fashion. That said, you could not complain with the results; he was not the first string when scoring on debut at Tipperary, nor was he when he won the Group 1 Criterium De Saint-Cloud over 1m2f on very soft ground on just his second start last term.
He had to grind out the victory on return in the Leopardstown Derby Trial, and no horse has doubled up from that race since 2002, after a run of three in a row to start the millennium. Yet, this trip and ground promise to suit him so much better than 1m2f on good did on his reappearance. He looks well balanced and unfussy, so Epsom should pose few problems.
AMBIENTE FRIENDLY
(James Fanshawe/Robert Havlin)
Drama in the build-up surrounds the ditching of Callum Shepherd in favour of the experienced Rab Havlin aboard Ambiente Friendly. He remains one of Britain’s primary hopes, and trainers from this side of the Irish Sea have snared all four Classics in both nations so far.
The son of Gleneagles filled third behind Ancient Wisdom in the Futurity Trophy last season, but appeared to have been left behind when only fourth on return at Newmarket. As is often the case though, the Rowley Mile threw up a potentially false result, as Ambiente Friendly bolted in in the Lingfield Derby Trial, and looked far from stopping at the end of 1m3½f.
He may have emerged slightly from left field, but that should not necessarily be held against him. The form has been boosted too, with third placed Meydaan winning at Listed level next time, so he is to be underestimated only at the reader’s peril.
THE FIELD
There are multiple places we could start, though two more trial winners in the field are Bellum Justum and Dallas Star. The former won the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom, so the track holds no fears, nor should the distance. The form is a bit mixed though, and the ground may not suit, which cannot be said of Dallas Star, who bolted from the blue in the Ballysax Stakes at Leopardstown, but did not seem to win via fluke. He could be a livewire outsider.
Runners-up on their most recent starts, Dancing Gemini and Macduff are closer to the head of the market as things stand. Roger Teal’s charge was runner-up in the French Guineas and could take things to a new level upped from 1m now. Macduff does not have as far to go up in trip having been second in the 1m2f Classic Trial at Sandown, but stayed right the way to the line. The winner does not stand in his way here.
Aidan O’Brien also runs Euphoric, runner-up to Los Angeles at Leopardstown and a potential pace angle; front-runners of his type have slipped the field before. Few others are obvious leaders among the outsiders, though if you are a fun of potential, all of once-raced Voyage and twice-raced Tabletalk and Kamboo could appeal.
Finally, one worth a long second look at big prices is Sayedaty Sadaty, whose pedigree is all stamina, whose dam won on heavy (he is yet to race on slower than good), and whose yard have had 50/1 and 150/1 runners-up in the last four renewals for the same owners. There is a chance he could relish this, and is one of the likelier challengers to find substantial improvement to figure.
VERDICT
There should be enough forgiveness among the punting population to see City Of Troy go off favourite again. However, unlike was ultimately the case with Auguste Rodin a year ago, this faith looks set to be misplaced bar an even more dramatic turnaround. His stablemate Euphoric should be watched from a pace perspective, as there are not a lot of obvious front-runners, but it is the other O’Brien runner in LOS ANGELES who may fit the bill the best. He has not done anything flashy in his three wins, but he is yet to taste defeat, and should cope with the rigours of the Derby perfectly. The trip and the ground may be absolutely ideal, and he looks the one to beat unless City Of Troy performs a reappearing act. Ambiente Friendly is feared most, as his Lingfield win looked no fluke, while Ancient Wisdom may well step forward bundles from his York second on this surface. Others at bigger prices to consider are Ballysax winner Dallas Star, another whose trial win was not an obvious accident and could set the gallop, and Sayedaty Sadaty, whose connections have found the knack of springing surprise each-way contenders in this race since 2020.
- Los Angeles
- Ambiente Friendly
- Dallas Star
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