The Epsom Derby field is down to 21 with the countdown to the big race on in earnest. Our in-house tipster Joe Napier has looked at the field still in contention and picked out two worthy bets at this stage.
Los Angeles – 2pt win (13/2 Paddy Power/Betfair)
First things first: City Of Troy might currently be trading at the worst price for a Classic in recent memory. Aidan O’Brien pulling a similar trick with Auguste Rodin last season is clearly a contributing factor, but the son of Justify appears to have significantly more to prove regarding whether he has trained on, both on breeding and appearance.
Justify’s progeny have significant doubts about their development at three, while regardless of his trainer’s attempts to, erm, justify his height, he looked small and frothy-mouthed in the 2000 Guineas. I did not back Auguste Rodin to re-emerge in glory in last year’s Derby, but he mostly looked to hate the ground and need the run in his Guineas flop. I think the City Of Troy is different.
Cue he and Aidan O’Brien proving me horrendously and embarrassingly wrong, but I believe there is a much more obvious Derby type in Ballydoyle’s ranks in LOS ANGELES. The Chester Vase, Dante and Classic Trial winners have all either been ruled out or primed for other engagements, but Leopardstown’s Derby Trial winner appears to be in full steam ahead mode for Epsom.
The lack of so many trial winners gives the Derby an unusually vacuous look at this stage, so while Los Angeles hardly impressed the eye at Leopardstown, there was enough he did right in maintaining his unbeaten record. The field did not look deep, but neither does Epsom’s.
Most importantly, he galloped right the way through the finish line in that success, as well as his Group 1 victory over 1m2f as a juvenile at Saint-Cloud. That pair of victories came on opposing forms of ground, versatility which should serve him well and his uncomplicated nature coupled with a pedigree that bodes well for his stamina over this new trip, all combine to make him the most appealing bet.
Epsom Derby Trends – Who the Stats Point to in British Racing’s Flagship Event
The Epsom Derby is rapidly approaching. With time ticking down until the race gets underway, Dave Young has analysed the best statistics and trends to pick out three horses who should run well. The Epsom Derby is the absolute pinnacle of Flat racing and although we’re missing this year’s 2,000 Guineas winner, we’re hopefully still…
Wed 29 May 2024
Sayedaty Sadaty – 0.5pt each-way (100/1 generally)
Another O’Brien inmate in Illinois was considered, being one of the last chances for Galileo to sire a Derby winner. He does not look the most straightforward and could easily step right forward from his Lingfield second to Ambiente Friendly, but his hanging right-handed is a fairly big negative for Epsom given the camber up the home stretch.
Instead, it does not feel like a wild swing to suggest rank outsider SAYEDATY SADATY is a decent each-way bet worth a small wager. Connections with him are everything.
Trainer Andrew Balding has had the runner-up for owner Ahmed Al Shaikh twice in the last four years, with Khalifa Sat doing so at 50/1 in 2020, while Hoo Ya Mal was an enormous 150/1 runner-up in 2022 behind Desert Crown. The former owed a lot to the way the race was run, but the latter seemed to be no fluke.
All this suggests Balding knows exactly how to prepare an outsider for the rigours of Epsom. Sayedaty Sadaty’s pedigree is chock full of stamina, though he was pacy enough to win over 1m as a juvenile as well as finish second in Listed company at that trip as recently as March.
He was well-beaten behind Caviar Heights in the 1m2f Newmarket Stakes, but though the winner let the form down at York, Balding’s charge kept on nicely enough in a race where the five runners finished at huge intervals. He looks to have improved and matured between two and three, and the point remains that this does not look a vintage Derby. Another big outsider placing for these connections is not beyond the realms of possibility.
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