There is only one Derby in my mind and this Blue Riband event is one of the most watched horse races across the world.
It is a race where four double-figure priced winners have landed the spoils this century and all of those came in the eight years. The officially highest-rated runner has won the last three renewals but what are the most important trends to consider before finding your winner of The Derby?
KEY TRENDS
- Draw doesn’t matter like it used to, preference would still be away from the inside
- Most likely to be priced 8/1 or shorter or trained by Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby
- Respect the highest rated runner in the field
- Was sent off 5/2 or shorter on their last run
- Probably has been beaten in their career
- Has recorded an RPR of at least 112
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Drawn in stall number 7 or higher – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
Two winners from the last four renewals have won from stall number one however there was a great deal of talk prior to that how being drawn low was a bit of a curse. That may have been lifted for stall one, but stall two hasn’t won The Derby since they were introduced back in 1967. Clearly it’s not an impossible task, but you would have preference to being drawn higher and you’re twice as well of in terms of profit and loss for backing all runners in stall 7 or higher than if you’d stuck with all runners in stall 6 or lower.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- SP of 8/1 or shorter – 21/25 (84%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites are money makers both this century and in the last 10 runnings but it’s negligible. While we’ve had four double-figure priced winners in the last eight years, most winners are single-figures and if you were to back all runners sent off 8/1 or shorter you’d be showing a very small profit this century vs a significant loss backing those runners sent off bigger.
Also, of those four winners, two were trained by Aidan O’Brien and two were trained by Charlie Appleby so essentially you can probably write off any other trainer with a horse at double-figure prices (commentators curse?)
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2004)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 8/21 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
Backing the highest rated runner in The Derby since 2004 is showing a 55% ROI to SP which doubles to 110% looking at just the last ten runnings. It would have found you the last three winners.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 16/25 (64%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Sent off 5/2 or shorter last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners are the most expensive previous race places to follow despite the fact they’ve produced the greatest number of winners. The same is true for horses who last ran between 16 and 30 days ago, they find the most winners, but they are huge loss makers overall.
PATHS FROM (Strike rate this century and last winner)
- 2000 Guineas – 7/35 (20% – 2024)
- Dante Stakes – 6/56 (11% – 2022)
- Ballysax (former Derrinstown) – 4/46 (9% – 2016)
- Chester Vase – 2/36 (6% – 2017)
- Lingfield Derby Trial – 2/43 (5% – 2021)
- Irish 2000 Guineas – 1/10 (10% – 2008)
- Dee Stakes – 1/13 (8% – 2003)
Looking at runners from last time out is worth considering where they came from. While many won both The Derby and their previous outing, you only have to think of both Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy who flopped in the 2000 Guineas before bouncing back. 17 winners this century though came from the 2000 Guineas, the Dante or the Ballysax.
FORM
- Group 1 winner at 2-years-old – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Peak 2-year-old RPR of 112 or higher – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Unbeaten as a 2-year-old – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Peak 3-year-old RPR of 112 or higher – 20/25 (80%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Unbeaten as a 3-year-old – 13/25 (52%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had run at 10 furlongs or further – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
Given The Derby is early enough in the season and we don’t have a great deal of 3yo form, looking back at the 2yo form it’s probably a little surprising that a third or less of winners had won a Group 1 as a 2yo and the same amount were unbeaten as a 2yo.
Slightly more winners than not are unbeaten as 3yo’s and it’s only around two thirds of winners who had run at 10 furlongs or further before taking The Derby.
AIDAN O’BRIEN
While Aidan O’Brien is profitable to back blind from all his runners both this century and this last decade, if you were to back every one of his favourites in The Derby you would be losing to Betfair SP but showing a small 6% ROI to SP.
If you backed ALL runners who were NOT trained by Aidan O’Brien but were priced 7/1 or shorter at SP you would be showing a 10% ROI this century. If you were to back ALL runners who were NOT trained by Aidan O’Brien priced greater than 7/1 you’d be showing a MINUS 64% ROI. Mostly thanks to Wings Of Eagles and Serpentine, you would actually be showing a profit backing all of Aidan’s runners who were priced bigger than 7/1.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – City Of Troy (USA)
- 2023 – Auguste Rodin (IRE)
- 2022 – Desert Crown (GB)
- 2021 – Adayar (IRE)
- 2020 – Serpentine (IRE)
- 2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (IRE)
- 2018 – Masar (IRE)
- 2017 – Wings Of Eagles (FR)
- 2016 – Harzand (IRE)
- 2015 – Golden Horn (GB)
- 2014 – Australia (GB)
- 2013 – Ruler Of The World (IRE)
- 2012 – Camelot (GB)
- 2011 – Pour Moi (IRE)
- 2010 – Workforce (GB)
- 2009 – Sea The Stars (IRE)
- 2008 – New Approach (IRE)
- 2007 – Authorized (IRE)
- 2006 – Sir Percy (GB)
- 2005 – Motivator (GB)
- 2004 – North Light (IRE)
- 2003 – Kris Kin (USA)
- 2002 – High Chaparral (IRE)
- 2001 – Galileo (IRE)
- 2000 – Sinndar (IRE)
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