There is only one Epsom Derby and this race is one of the most watched horse races across the world.
It is a race where four double-figure priced winners have landed the spoils this century and all of those came in the last decade, but what are the most important trends to consider in attempting to find the winner of the Derby?
I’ve looked at the last 25 runnings with a comparison to the last 10, to look at the long-standing trends and which might have taken a turn in recent years to help us try and solve this puzzle.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to being drawn in stall 7 or higher
- Will SP at 7/1 or shorter or is trained by Aidan O’Brien or Charlie Appleby at 16/1+
- The highest-rated runner in the field exceeds expectations and is profitable to back blind
- Look to horses sent off at 5/2 or shorter last time out and add respect to those beaten last time out too
- Is not expected to be unbeaten this season
- Previous Group 1 winners are profitable to follow blind in this race
- Backing Aidan O’Brien blind is profitable and you’d make even more if ignoring his runners sent off between 8/1 and 14/1
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Drawn in stall number 7 or higher – 17/25 (68%) & 8/10 (80%)
Two winners from the last 5 have won from stall number one which seems to have dispelled the belief that being drawn low was a bit of a curse. Stall two hasn’t won The Derby since stalls were introduced back in 1967 so there’s probably something still in being drawn very low, especially with the bulk of winners coming from stall 7 or higher.
PRICE
- Favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- SP of 7/1 or shorter – 21/25 (84%) & 6/10 (60%)
While we’ve had 4 double-figure priced winners in the last decade, most winners are single-figures and if you were to back all runners sent off 7/1 or shorter you’d be showing a very small profit this century vs a significant loss backing those runners sent off bigger.
The 4 winners that did win at bigger prices were sent off at 16/1 or bigger, two were trained by Aidan O’Brien and two were trained by Charlie Appleby so you can probably write off any other trainer with a horse at a double-figure price
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2004)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 8/22 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
4 of the last 10 winners were the highest rated runner in the field and backing all qualifiers would produce an 86% ROI even just to SP. These runners perform at 1.8 A/E (Actual vs Expected) so simply following the best horse in the race can be the way to do it.
You’d find a further 4 winners when looking beyond the last decade back through the last 25 renewals and that still shows a 48% ROI backing blind with the A/E sat at 1.47
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Sent off 5/2 or shorter last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Last time out winners are big loss makers to follow blind and while most winners last ran 16-30 days ago, that’s another angle that would cost you money to follow on its own.
Backing runners who were sent off at 5/2 or shorter last time out is profitable blind showing a 70% ROI to SP in the last decade and 8% from the last 25.
While I’ve mentioned all the above, if you combined last time out winners, who last ran between 16 and 30 days ago with being sent off at 5/2 or shorter you’d create a heavy loss maker. However, if you look for horses who did NOT win last time out, but were sent off 5/2 or shorter and last ran between 16 and 30 days ago you would find 5 winners from the last 25 but show a 68% ROI and 4 of those came from the last 10 renewals which shows a whopping 156% ROI and an A/E of 2.99!
PATHS FROM (Strike rate this century and last winner)
- 2000 Guineas – 7/36 (20% – 2024)
- Dante Stakes – 6/62 (10% – 2022)
- Ballysax (former Derrinstown) – 4/48 (8% – 2016)
- Chester Vase – 3/38 (8% – 2025)
- Lingfield Derby Trial – 2/45 (4% – 2021)
- Irish 2000 Guineas – 1/10 (10% – 2008)
- Dee Stakes – 1/13 (8% – 2003)
The biggest trials for this race are clearly the 2,000 Guineas on both sides of the Irish Sea, the Ballysax and the Chester Vase although the Lingfield Derby Trial has a more recent winner than the Ballysax so that’s probably worth noting for now and going forward.
FORM
- Group 1 winner – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Unbeaten this season – 13/25 (52%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had run at 10 furlongs or further – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
While most winners of this contest were NOT already a Group 1 winner, if you backed all runners who were from the last 25 renewals you would show a 55% ROI to SP with an A/E of 1.51. You would only find 2 winners from the last 10 but again, it’s profitable blind to 58% ROI with an A/E of 1.31.
Most modern winners are not expected to be unbeaten although it’s always been preferably to have a horse who has raced at 10f or further before this race.
AIDAN O’BRIEN
I mentioned prices earlier with reference to Aidan O’Brien and if you were to back all his runners in the last decade blind who were NOT sent off between 8/1 and 14/1 you would show a 154% ROI to SP and 236% using Betfair SP.
Doing the same across the last 25 renewals still makes money, but shows a 33% ROI to SP and 108% to Betfair SP. Still impressive numbers and still much better than just backing all his runners blind.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Lambourn (IRE)
- 2024 – City Of Troy (USA)
- 2023 – Auguste Rodin (IRE)
- 2022 – Desert Crown (GB)
- 2021 – Adayar (IRE)
- 2020 – Serpentine (IRE)
- 2019 – Anthony Van Dyck (IRE)
- 2018 – Masar (IRE)
- 2017 – Wings Of Eagles (FR)
- 2016 – Harzand (IRE)
- 2015 – Golden Horn (GB)
- 2014 – Australia (GB)
- 2013 – Ruler Of The World (IRE)
- 2012 – Camelot (GB)
- 2011 – Pour Moi (IRE)
- 2010 – Workforce (GB)
- 2009 – Sea The Stars (IRE)
- 2008 – New Approach (IRE)
- 2007 – Authorized (IRE)
- 2006 – Sir Percy (GB)
- 2005 – Motivator (GB)
- 2004 – North Light (IRE)
- 2003 – Kris Kin (USA)
- 2002 – High Chaparral (IRE)
- 2001 – Galileo (IRE)
- 2000 – Sinndar (IRE)