Day one of the Epsom Derby festival arrives on Friday. The meeting has received a cash injection and a makeover from Frank Warren’s publicity team, with day one now centred entirely around the Epsom Oaks.
GG tipster Joe Napier has four selections for the opening day at Epsom. He takes on the favourite in the Oaks, with three other tips to follow.
2.40 Epsom – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) – Chancellor (0.5pt e/w – 14/1)
Only 7lb covers this entire Group 3 field. Persica has the course form, but lacks a decent recent effort, making him easy to take on at the head of the betting. A chance is taken on Chancellor, who is second bottom on ratings, but only 4lb below the highest-rated. His improvement from the autumn onwards came on the all-weather, on which he won at Listed level in February at Southwell. However, it may not be the surface which proved the difference, as he won two of his first three turf starts. In between his disappointing previous race on grass last May, and his victory on Kempton’s Polytrack, he had also been gelded and had wind surgery. It is equally as plausible that those factors have combined to improve his form. The return to turf is not feared, with his debut win coming on good-to-soft too. The son of Kingman is going the right way for the Gosdens and is overpriced.
3.15 Epsom – Betfred “Nifty 50” Handicap – Alpha Crucis (1pt e/w – 9/1)
He is already proving well-backed, but Alpha Crucis may still offer value at 9/1. Gary & Josh Moore’s charge has won four times, each of those on a soft or heavy surface. None of them have been over 1m2f, but that seems more like a coincidence, as he has never looked a non-stayer at the distance. His two runs at Epsom have both resulted in runner-up finishes, including at this meeting last year. He is now 1lb below the mark he was second off 12 months ago and ran really well on his return at Doncaster when fifth in the Lincoln. The handicapper has dropped him 1lb for that and few will appreciate the worsening conditions like the selection.
4.00 Epsom – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) – A La Prochaine (1pt e/w – 8/1)
Amelia Earhart is not certain to appreciate softening ground, but her trial form was definitely best on the eye. Given she is expected to be on the premises, similar could apply to A La Prochaine. Ralph Beckett’s filly won on debut at Newbury last season on soft going. Along with the favourite, she was the least exposed in the Cheshire Oaks field, but defied inexperience to be a three-length third behind Amelia Earhart. The daughter of Lope De Vega has soft ground knowhow though and stayed all the way through the line. Given how highly-touted the runner-up was, she was only a length behind that day. She also had nowhere near the generous trip of the winner. It may be her Ballydoyle rival proves too classy, but A La Prochaine is entitled to go at least as close under the Oaks conditions, making her a decent each-way bet.
4.40 Epsom – HKJC World Pool Handicap – Stem (1pt win – 11/2)
Having failed to fulfil his promise over middle distances, Stem looks very likely to retain potential over 1m. Richard Hannon has hit form of late, saddling five winners in a row between Sunday and Monday. He may well enjoy another victor at Epsom, with Stem well-treated on a mark of 89. He won by nearly ten lengths on debut at Newbury as a juvenile on heavy going. However, he was wrongly tagged as a 1m2f-1m4f horse, never seeing out those trips even on his favoured soft ground. Returned to 1m though, he was second only to the highly promising Eternal Force back at Newbury in September. That winner won again on his following start and the selection boosted his fitness on return in April. A mark of 89 surely underestimates what he could be capable of as conditions look set to be ideal.
Epsom Derby Festival Day 1 Tips
2.40 Epsom – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) – Chancellor (0.5pt e/w – 14/1)
3.15 Epsom – Betfred “Nifty 50” Handicap – Alpha Crucis (1pt e/w – 9/1)
4.00 Epsom – Betfred Oaks (Group 1) – A La Prochaine (1pt e/w – 8/1)
4.40 Epsom – HKJC World Pool Handicap – Stem (1pt win – 11/2)
Epsom Oaks Day Tips – Epsom Derby Festival Day 1