The highest accolade for the fillies’ in their own sphere as 3yo’s is the title of the Epsom Oaks. Dave Young has analysed all of the key trends, with three names sticking out in the race.
Little sister to the Derby but we’ve had some iconic winners in recent renewals and it’s a race that has been farmed Aidan O’Brien and John Gosden. It’s not always been the most obvious horse that wins though and with a 50/1 winner in the recent roll of honours I’m going to take a look at what it’s taken to win this race and see if we can find ourselves the horse who will add their name to this race.
10 Year Trends
- ALL of the last 10 winner have been trained by Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden
- 9 of the last 10 winners returned a single figure price
- 9 of the last 10 winners finished top 2 last time out (6 won)
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran inside the last 28 days
- 8 of the last 10 winners were NOT the highest rated horse
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won as a 2yo
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won as a 3yo
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won over the furthest trip they had run
Aidan O’Brien Trends
- 5 of his last 6 winners ran in a Group Race last time out (4 of those 5 in a Group 1)
- 4 of his last 6 winners had 5+ runs as a 2yo (the other two did NOT win as 2yo’s)
- 4 of his last 6 winners had an OR of 108+
John Gosden Trends
These trends include Emily Upjohn, who would have won if not for stumbling:
- ALL of his last 5 ‘winners’ ran in either Listed or a Group 3 race last time out
- ALL of his last 5 ‘winners’ had won as a 2yo
- ALL of his last 5 ‘winners’ had won last time out
- ALL of his last 5 ‘winners’ had won over the furthest trip they had run
- 4 of his last 5 ‘winners’ had run once as a 2yo (the other ran twice to shed maiden tag)
- 4 of his last 5 ‘winners’ were sent off 2/1 or shorter last time out
- 4 of his last 5 ‘winners’ had won once as a 3yo (the other was EMILY UPJOHN)
SHORTLIST
With the Irish 1,000 Guineas to be run between the time of writing and the Oaks itself that could help a couple of horses tick the box they’re missing, but both of Aidan O’Brien’s who make the final 3 would both really need to win that race. Still, it’s worth writing about these as the risk reward when they are declared in the Curragh on Sunday would suggest they could be worth a swing at their current prices. I’ve also included a non Aidan O’Brien or Gosden trained runner, but it’s a Ralph Becket horse who took this race 11 renewals ago in 2013 with Talent and then again in 2008 with Look Here.
YOU GOT TO ME – General 14/1
Took the race by the scruff of the neck in the Lingfield Oaks Trial which Anapurna landed before the Oaks proper. She took the scalps of Rubies Are Red and the highly thought after Danielle and while frustrations were there for bettors of the runner up, YOU GOT TO ME did well to sustain the gallop having been keen early and is entitled to improve from that first run as much as anything else. That was her first start of the season and her first go on Good ground which she seemed to adore. She might only be rated 98 but Forever Together for Aidan O’Brien was 99-rated before landing this so it’s not an impossible task and there’s a chance she’s been under-rated. She’s a top price 16/1 shot and a general 14/1 poke, I think she’s got the best chance of the British and with the yard also housing Forest Fairy who is a bit shorter in the market, they hold a strong hand.
“She was a filly we always liked last year, but with her physique and her pedigree, she was always going to make a better three-year-old when she stepped up in trip,” explained Alex Elliott, racing adviser for the owners.
“She did it the hard way and didn’t make it easy for herself in the first part of the race, but hopefully the freshness will have left her now and we can ride a bit more of a race on her at Epsom and we’re looking forward to that.”
OPERA SINGER – General 33/1
Not only does OPERA SINGER tick almost all the main trends (pending her run and finish in the Irish 1,000 Guineas) she also ticks all 3 of the Aidan O’Brien specific trends and goes into this weekend rated 118 following her Group 1 victory last October in France. Now most of the yards horses have benefitted from their first run, and I think the same will be true for this filly, so while she’d ideally have to win in the Curragh on Sunday to tick all the trends, that’s unlikely but my word if she did she’d be single figures for this race.
She was of course behind Ylang Ylang in her first ever start but she really had a rough time of things so the gap between the pair was exaggerated. This will also be over much further and we know her sire Justify stays this trip having been a Triple Crown winner. He also sires City Of Troy who is favourite for the Derby, so there can be no stamina concerns on her side.
While the yard have an impressive record in the race, it’s not always their first string as recent years have shown but also it’s not as much of a surprise if they were to throw in another big priced winner having done the same in 2015 with 50/1 winner Qualify.
For a filly rated as highly as she is I think the price about her is crazy, but I do appreciate that her participation in this race is not yet confirmed, we’ll see how she comes out of the weekend, but 3 of Aidan’s last 6 winners ran in the two races, and had it not been for Covid, I’m sure Love would have too.
BUTTONS 50/1 Betfair/Paddy Power
BUTTONS Looked on debut over 7f that she was already ready for a step up in trip but she wasn’t seen after as a 2yo however has been out twice already as a 3yo. She’s confirmed to be on track for the Curragh this Sunday too, and she was a bit unlucky in running last time out to only go down by ¾ length in a Group 3. She has raced exclusively at Leopardstown so there could be something in that and she’s a massive 50/1 for this race before the weekend, although she is as short as 25/1 in places. I’d be expecting her to run into the frame at least, and ideally to keep ticking those trends she’d need to win that race, but I don’t think that out the realms of possibility and of course in running well there her price will only contract.
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