The Derby for the ladies but The Oaks has seen just one favourite win in the last 8 renewals so I’ve looked at the trends to see if we can work out who might be the most likely winner this year.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw doesn’t really matter but preference goes to those in stalls 5 or lower
- Look to runners priced 9/2 to 8/1 at SP
- Avoid the Top-Rated runners, they are expensive to follow blind
- Likely to have been beaten
- Will have an RPR of 103 or higher, preferably 105 or higher
- Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in stall number 5 or lower – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
The lower drawn horses seem to do better looking at the results from this century and in the last decade. If you were to back all runners in stalls 5 or lower you’d be showing a modest £4 profit this century rising to £39 in the last decade, all thanks to 50/1 winner Qualify though.
PRICE
- Favourites – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- SP of 9/2 to 8/1 – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
Favourites blind will lose you money but in the last decade second, third and fourth favourites are all showing a profit blind. If you backed every runner priced between 9/2 and 8/1 at SP you’d be in profit this century and showing a 150% ROI in the last decade.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2003)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 3/22 (14%) & 2/10 (20%)
The Top-Rated runner is a terrible system to follow in The Oaks. Since 2011 there have been 11 favourites from the 14 with the others 4/1 or shorter themselves and just 2 of those won. It’s running around A/E of 0.50 which is half as many winners as the prices would expect.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 2 last time out – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (0%)
- Sent off 11/4 or bigger last time out – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (60%)
Most winners will have placed first or second last time out and as long as the horse has run inside the last 60 days it’s fine. Most winners were sent of 11/4 or bigger last time out
PATHS FROM (Strike rate this century – last winner – % who won both)
- Irish 1000 Guineas – 4/25 (16% – 2022 – 25%)
- Musidora Stakes – 4/44 (11% – 2023 – 75%)
- Pretty Polly Stakes – 3/23 (13% – 2014 – 100%)
- 1000 Guineas – 3/32 (9% – 2020 – 67%)
- Cheshire Oaks – 3/41 (7% – 2018 – 67%)
- Height Of Fashion Stakes – 2/16 (13% – 2010 – 100%)
- Newbury Fillies’ Trial – 2/20 (10% – 2011 – 50%)
- Lingfield Oaks Trial – 2/41 (5% – 2019 – 50%)
- Salabill Stakes – 1/5 (20% – 2024 – 0%)
- Blue Wind Stakes – 1/16 (6% – 2012 – 100%)
The trials have clearly been good pointers to winners of this race but there are periods where some trials seem to prove better than others. The %’s at the end show how many horses won both, so races like the Pretty Polly stakes are only a pointer to the winner from that race, the Musidora you likely want the winner too but the Irish 1000 Guineas you’re looking for a runner to have been beaten.
FORM
- Group winner at 2-years-old – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Unbeaten as a 2-year-old – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Peak 3-year-old RPR of 103 or higher – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Unbeaten as a 3-year-old – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had run at 10 furlongs or further – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
While high RPR’s were rare as 2yo’s most winners had clocked 103 or higher as a 3yo and you could squeeze it up to 105 if being harsh. Only 2 winners were unbeaten in their career and ideally the winner will have run at 10 furlongs or further.
TRAINER
Aidan O’Brien and The Gosdens have had great success in this race with the duo responsible for 9 of the last 10 winners. You would make money backing them blind both this century and in the last decade, but of course, only one can win it each year. Charlie Appleby has run 6 horses in this race with no success as yet.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Ezeliya (FR)
- 2023 – Soul Sister (IRE)
- 2022 – Tuesday (IRE)
- 2021 – Snowfall (JPN)
- 2020 – Love (IRE)
- 2019 – Anapurna (GB)
- 2018 – Forever Together (IRE)
- 2017 – Enable (GB)
- 2016 – Minding (IRE)
- 2015 – Qualify (IRE)
- 2014 – Taghrooda (GB)
- 2013 – Talent (GB)
- 2012 – Was (IRE)
- 2011 – Dancing Rain (IRE)
- 2010 – Snow Fairy (IRE)
- 2009 – Sariska (GB)
- 2008 – Look Here (GB)
- 2007 – Light Shift (USA)
- 2006 – Alexandrova (IRE)
- 2005 – Eswarah (GB)
- 2004 – Ouija Board (GB)
- 2003 – Casual Look (USA)
- 2002 – Kazzia (GER)
- 2001 – Imagine (IRE)
- 2000 – Love Divine (GB)