With just one winning favourite from the last nine renewals, it takes more than pole position in the market to find the likely contenders of this Classic.
The last three winners were the second favourite so maybe that’s a better indicator but I’ve delved into the last 25 renewals to draw a comparison to the last 10, in order to figure out what it typically takes to land this prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw doesn’t have a major influence, slight preference goes to the lowest 3 stalls
- Preference goes to runners sent off between 9/2 and 8/1 and who are NOT the favourite
- Very unlikely to be the highest-rated runner in the field
- Must have placed top 2 last time out
- Preferably last ran 16 to 30 days ago
- Probably isn’t already a Group 1 winner
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 5/25 (20%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Drawn in stall number 5 or lower – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
The draw might not have the biggest influence on this race but it’s paid to follow the lower stalls in the last 25 renewals with the lowest three stalls paying £35.35 profit to £1 levels stakes from 75 qualifiers. You’d find 5 further winners if you pushed the band to stall 5 or lower but you’d simply eat into most of the blind profit from the lowest three.
In the last 10 renewals you’d break even just backing the lowest three stalls but increasing to stall 5 or lower you’d again find more winners but again eat into the figures.
PRICE
- Favourites – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 2nd, 3rd or 4th Favourite – 11/25 (44%) & 8/10 (80%)
- SP of 9/2 to 8/1 – 9/25 (36%) & 7/10 (70%)
In the last 10 renewals we’ve seen 7 winners return between 9/2 and 8/1 which backing blind shows a £32 level stake profit from 19 runners. You’d find one more winner if instead of using the price band you looked at market position at SP and backed all 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites but it’s drops the level stakes profit to £23.75 and would include 31 runners.
Looking further back and at the last 25 renewals, we se again that the 9/2 to 8/1 at SP bracket is profitable to back blind but does appear on the percentages to be a turning trend, or one I’d probably argue has already turned.
OFFICIAL RATING – (Since 2003)
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 3/23 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
No top-rated runner has won this contest for the last 6 years and probably in the same path as favourite, they massively underperform vs expectation with their A/E (actual vs expected) sitting at 0.45 where running to expectations would sit at 1.00
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Top 2 last time out – 22/25 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Sent off 11/4 or bigger last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Last time out winners make up most of the runners so they’re not profitable to back blind despite finding most winners. All of the last 10 winners finished Top 2 last time out and most winners will have raced between 16 and 30 days ago and would have been sent off 11/4 or bigger.
PATHS FROM (Strike rate this century – last winner – % who won both)
- Irish 1000 Guineas – 4/25 (16% – 2022 – 25%)
- Musidora Stakes – 4/46 (11% – 2023 – 75%)
- Pretty Polly Stakes – 3/23 (13% – 2014 – 100%)
- 1000 Guineas – 3/34 (9% – 2020 – 67%)
- Cheshire Oaks – 4/42 (9% – 2025 – 75%)
- Height Of Fashion Stakes – 2/16 (13% – 2010 – 100%)
- Newbury Fillies’ Trial – 2/22 (10% – 2011 – 50%)
- Lingfield Oaks Trial – 2/42 (5% – 2019 – 50%)
- Salsabill Stakes – 1/6 (20% – 2024 – 0%)
- Blue Wind Stakes – 1/16 (6% – 2012 – 100%)
Loads of trials have found the winner of this race but in the last decade it’s been the Chesire Oaks, Salsabill Stakes, Musidora Stakes, Irish 1,000 Guineas and the 1,000 Guineas that were the lead in races to glory in this. Chesire Oaks, Irish 1,000 Guineas and Musidora runner are expected to have won that prep race, which I think is probably the best take out from this.
GROUP 1 FORM
- Winner who had already won a Group 1 – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
Many Oaks winners might be coming to their peak as 3-year-olds and some are lightly raced as 2-year-olds by design. Still, across both period measured it’s unlikely that the winner of this contest will already be able to say they’re a Group 1 winner.
TRAINER & JOCKEY
Aidan O’Brien (6) and The Gosdens (3) have had great success in this race with the duo responsible for 9 of the last 10 winners and 11 of the last 12. That said, Aidan O’Brien is a loss maker to back blind in the last 10 years where as the Gosdens sit near 100% ROI. Charlie Appleby has run 7 horses in this race with no success as yet.
With Aidan O’Brien training so many winners, if we looked at Ryan Moore mounts in the last decade he has ridden 4 winners and shows a 70% ROI.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Minnie Hauk (IRE)
- 2024 – Ezeliya (FR)
- 2023 – Soul Sister (IRE)
- 2022 – Tuesday (IRE)
- 2021 – Snowfall (JPN)
- 2020 – Love (IRE)
- 2019 – Anapurna (GB)
- 2018 – Forever Together (IRE)
- 2017 – Enable (GB)
- 2016 – Minding (IRE)
- 2015 – Qualify (IRE)
- 2014 – Taghrooda (GB)
- 2013 – Talent (GB)
- 2012 – Was (IRE)
- 2011 – Dancing Rain (IRE)
- 2010 – Snow Fairy (IRE)
- 2009 – Sariska (GB)
- 2008 – Look Here (GB)
- 2007 – Light Shift (USA)
- 2006 – Alexandrova (IRE)
- 2005 – Eswarah (GB)
- 2004 – Ouija Board (GB)
- 2003 – Casual Look (USA)
- 2002 – Kazzia (GER)
- 2001 – Imagine (IRE)
- 2000 – Love Divine (GB)