Derby Day would be nothing without some speculative flutters. The good news is, GG’s own Matty Sutcliffe has five value selections which are far from speculative, including two in the world’s most famous race at 4.30pm.
Published: 1.55pm, Thursday, 30th May (Odds correct at time of publishing)
2:00 Epsom – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Sponsored By My Pension Expert) (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Astral Beau 14/1 1pt EW (1-5 odds 1-3 places, Betfair/PaddyPower)
It’s possible to forgive ASTRAL BEAU for her 12-length beating in the Dahlia Stakes last time out, where she seemed unsuited by racing alone up the centre until the final three furlongs where those on the far-side had eventually come across, but also the rain had not come and the ground was likely too quick enough for her.
If we’re to draw a line through that and she was coming here on the back of a second to Charyn in the Doncaster Mile, then I doubt she’d be as lofty a price. Charyn has gone on to boost the form well, taking the G2 Sandown Bet365 Mile next time out before being the only one to come out of the pack and pose any sort of threat to Audience in the Lockinge, pulling six lengths clear of the 3rd.
Her record on ground (according to Timeform) containing soft or heavy in the description reads 1121132 so conditions will suit as will the drop back to a sharper mile in a race that she was beaten 3/4 off a length in last season. That effort came on good to firm ground, so a replication of that effort back on a softer surface should naturally see her improve in what doesn’t appear to be a deep renewal.
2:35 Epsom – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group 3) (Class 1) (3yo+) – Highland Avenue 3/1 (generally) 1.5pt WIN (William Hill 6/1)
I’ve long thought that the Diomed Stakes is one of those races for horses who are tripless, where whenever they race at a certain distance, they’re vulnerable to one who gets the trip better regardless of ratings etc. Regal Reality is a good example, as he was talented over 1m2f in the early part of his career, but wasn’t quite classy enough to lay glove on the likes of Enable, Japan, Magical, Ghaiyyath etc. But as he’s aged, he’s not quite got the speed when up against a genuine miler over that trip. Witch Hunter is a similar one; I nearly favoured him here but he’s 0-4 over a mile and for all he shaped as if he stayed the trip in the Lockinge, I just wonder whether he was flattered by coming out of a pack of already beaten horses, and they’ll be an added emphasis on stamina should the ground be soft/heavy on Saturday.
HIGHLAND AVENUE falls in to this bracket as though he was progressive over a mile as a three year old, he came up short in the St James’s Palace Stakes and continued to do so in Graded races at 1m2f. He’s only won four races, but five of his 19 defeats have come in Meydan on quick ground, and the last two he played the hare for a stablemate, so there’s several bits of his form where you can draw a line through. Although beaten 3/4L in this contest by Regal Reality last season, that came on good to firm ground and I think he’s far better on softer going, where four of his top six RPR’s have come on. It’s no surprise that his top two RPR’s have come between a mile and 1m2f, as he’s one of the aforementioned sorts who isn’t quite speedy enough for those genuine milers, but doesn’t bode enough stamina as those genuine ten-furlong sorts.
Now he gets soft ground over this ‘trip-less’ trip, I think he can reverse the form with Regal Reality (though worse off at the weights) and put his Meydan form behind him. Charlie Appleby won this with a six year old with a similar profile in 2014, and I’d expect Buick to dominate proceedings and kick early, utilising that extra stamina we know he has.
Epsom Derby Tips 2024 – City of Angels to Deny City of Troy
It is the pinnacle in the careers of so many horses, and this year’s Epsom Derby is full of depth and intrigue. With 16 runners and reputations on the line, Joe Napier previews this year’s premier Classic, giving his verdict below. Auguste Rodin bounced back from an extremely disappointing 2,000 Guineas effort to secure Derby…
Thu 30 May 2024
3:10 Epsom – Betfred 3YO “Dash” Handicap (Class 3) (3yo 0-90) – Billy Webster 10/1 1pt EW (Odds 1/5 1-6 places PaddyPower)
There’s set to be a plethora of early pace on here with several keen goers and along with the electrifying nature of the track, I’m banking on a pace collapse favouring one who can travel strongly in rear.
BILLY WEBSTER is one of only a few who will be comfortable sitting off a fast gallop, and you won’t find many a better strong travelling three year old handicapper than him. He clocked good early figures in the middle part of the race at Chester last time out when travelling strongly on the bridle, edging his way to the rail from stall nine. He was perhaps caught in a pocket for too long but he displayed a good turn of foot once in the clear, but didn’t stay as well as some suggesting a drop back to five furlong should suit.
He’s unbeaten in three attempts at this distance, the first coming on good/soft ground on debut at Pontefract, before bouncing back from a defeat over six furlong at Goodwood with two wins in nurseries on the all-weather, firstly defying the outside stall at Wolves, weaving his way through rivals with ease on the turn for home before showing a smart turn of foot to reel in Cotai Vision who’d kicked early for home. Then, despite being six pounds worse off at the weights with Cotai Vision, he won with even more ease, travelling strongly into the lead with minimal fuss before putting the race to bed once popped the question.
He wasn’t disgraced in two six furlong efforts since (latterly at Chester) when not drawn well in either, and he shaped very much like this drop back to five furlongs would be favourable. Should they go off too hard in front, then this well balanced son of Profitable is guaranteed to pick them off and capitalise with his sharp turn of foot.
4:30 Epsom – Betfred Derby (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (No Geldings) (Class 1) (3yo) – Dallas Star 33/1 1pt EW (Odds 1/5 1-3 places Bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes) + Kamboo 150/1 0.5pt EW (Odds 1/5 1-4 places PaddyPower)
DALLAS STAR was a surprise winner of the Ballysax at 50/1, but plenty seem to have noted that down as a fluke and ruled him out of contention to back that up here. By Cloth Of Stars out of a Sadler’s Wells mare from the family of Aquareliste, Artiste Royal and Annekov, anything he did as a two-year-old was merely a bonus and he certainly wasn’t disgraced in his five starts.
He reappeared in the Ballysax with a professional effort first time up, travelling well in front and seemingly unfazed by Deepone taking him on for the lead halfway through. He looked a much more relaxed model of a horse, and had clearly filled out too. You can make the case that the principles had failed to fire and needed the run, but he still beat them fairly comfortably and the 2nd/3rd couldn’t lay a glove on Ambiente Friendly last time out, so Dallas Star is certainly overlooked on that formline. Though it was a slow finish, I was impressed with how he kept galloping and stuck his neck out past the line, so visually (and certainly on pedigree) there’s no stamina doubts. The Ballysax has unearthed some good Derby performers in the past, latterly with last years winner White Birch who was a staying on third to Auguste Rodin, Broome (2019) was beaten half a length in to fourth by Anthony Van Dyck, 2017 3rd Capri fared well behind Wings Of Eagles and of course Harzand won the race in 2016 after his Ballysax win.
His performance will likely depend on the ground however, but I’m hopeful there’ll still be some give in the ground come Saturday particularly if the forecast showers arrive over the next couple days, and he’s one a few pace angles who could easily get loose on the lead in Serpentine-esque fashion.
Other than Dallas Star, I’ve struggled to have a strong opinion on any of the other runners of the Derby. There’s a plethora of negatives attached to multiple individuals, whether that be trip, ground, breeding or all combined, and it has the make-up of throwing up a bizarre result. We’ve seen it on plenty of occasions in recent renewals: King Of Steel was beaten half a length at 66/1 last year on seasonal debut, having only won a Nottingham maiden and been beaten nine lengths in the Futurity. Hoo Ya Mal was second to Desert Crown at 150/1 in 2022 with only a York Maiden to his cabinet, Khalifa Sat and Amhran Na Bhifaan were second and third to shock winner Serpentine at 50/1 and 66/1 in 2020, the former rated just 99 after winning a Listed race by a neck and the latter was coming off the back of an RPR of 81 when third in a Leoopardstown Maiden.
For whatever reason, the quality of the Derby is depleting year by year, so I just wonder whether KAMBOO for Richard Hughes could spark a surprise, or at least hit the frame. Derby winner Richard Kingscote has been given the leg up, which is possibly a signal of intent that they’re here for the prize as opposed to giving Finley Marsh a chance, who’s ridden him on his only two starts. Both of his runs have come at Kempton so he’ll be making his turf debut, but we’ve already seen it in one classic this season with Notable Speech that we shouldn’t rule him out entirely based on that evidence. He shaped like needing the run on debut last November when a staying on fifth behind the highly promising Matsuri, and duly obliged when dotting up by three lengths over the same C&D next time out. While that form is nowhere near what’s needed to win Derby, at least there’s substance to it given the three lengths second has come out and bolted up by four lengths last month running to an RPR of 93, and the sixth has also coming out and won cosily since now rated 91, so it’s not out of the realms of possibility that Kamboo could be a 100+ type in due course.
Kamboo missed his intended engagement in the Feilden Stakes, which further suggests he’s well thought of, though I’m under no illusion this is one almighty task. Awtaad wouldn’t be the most obvious sire of a Derby winner, but he’s by a Galileo dam (Galileo dam-sire won with Auguste Rodin last year) as is City Of Troy, and he’s a half-brother to the talented, but ill-fated Sir Erec who was third to Stradivarius in the Long Distance Cup at Ascot. His grand-dam is also related to smart stayer turned National Hunt Stallion Mahler, so his pedigree provides optimism that the Derby trip is within reach and while his odds are a reflection of his chance, stranger things have happened in this contest which is by no means a strong renewal.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.