The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes is the first of two top level events contested at Newmarket’s July Meeting. The 1m race for fillies and mares has attracted a quality line-up and Joe Napier previews how it may all unfold.
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Favourites
Cinderella’s Dream and Crimson Advocate renew their rivalry from the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes in which the latter came out on top by just under two lengths. The Gosdens’ filly is improving with every start over 1m as she swooped to a convincing success, so while the consistent Cinderella’s Dream is now 3lb better off at the weights, those placings could well be confirmed.
The other prominent member of the market is January. Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old is comfortably the favourite among her generation here, having improved significantly when a close third in the Coronation Stakes. That was a Group 1 and she came from a long way back in the field. With less pace in the race and with her two main market rivals both seemingly hold-up performers, she may well be the best-placed in running under Ryan Moore.
Contenders
Running Lion is the only mare in the field being a five-year-old. Under Oisin Murphy, she was fourth in her defence of the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes when overhauled by both Crimson Advocate and Cinderella’s Dream. She will likely lead again and could get an easy time of things out in front, but she faded to be tailed off and last in this 12 months ago.
Last season’s 1000 Guineas heroine Elmalka was almost certainly a fortuitous Classic winner, but she has been a model of consistency since with form figures of 44424 in her most recent five starts. All bar one of those has come in Group 1 company, but once again, she will likely find at least one too good; she was 4½ lengths behind Cinderella’s Dream on their mutual return to action.
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Outsiders
The trio of outsiders all represent this season’s Classic generation, though in all-age Group 1s so far, the three-year-olds have performed well. Elwateen reverts to 1m after not staying in the Oaks. Her fourth in the 1000 Guineas is respectable and she is still open to improvement, but Atsila has one notable scalp, having beaten Coronation Stakes winner Cercene in Group 3 company at the Curragh and she didn’t get the run of the race in the Irish Guineas.
The sole raider for Europe is Lady Ilze, trained in Germany by Andreas Wohler. She won the German 1000 Guineas, but that was on soft, so despite being solid enough form, she does have the most to prove.
Verdict
Crimson Advocate and Cinderella’s Dream set the form standard, with the Duke Of Cambridge winner fancied to uphold that form even on 3lb worse terms. However, the three-year-olds have belied expectations in Group 1s against their elders so far and JANUARY looked capable of better when third in the Coronation Stakes having come from a long way back in the field. She may well race closer to the lead in a race which has only one significant front-runner in Running Lion, who did not enjoy this contest 12 months ago. Elwateen is interesting back over 1m, but a sterner threat could yet come from Atsila, who claimed a notable victory two starts ago and is likely better than she showed in the Curragh’s 1000 Guineas.
- January
- Crimson Advocate
- Atsila
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