No double-figure sized field this century and 9 of the last 10 renewals have seen 6 or fewer runners. That said, we’ve seen multiple Champion Hurdlers start their seasons in this event thanks to Nicky Henderson.
We’ve seen a dead-heat in 2021 so the century figures will be out of 26 and the decade figures will be out of 11. We’ve also had 3 running’s held away from Newcastle, most recently in 2023 when moved to Sandown, so these will be considered when looking at relevant course form.
I’ve looked at all running’s this century and compared to the last decade to see how much we can learn about what it typically takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Respect 9 and 11-year-olds but likely to be aged 5, 6 or 7
- Favourites pay for themselves this century but respect the 4th favourite
- Won last time out
- Preferably ran at no further than 16 furlongs last time out
- Has won at Newcastle if has already run at Newcastle
- Ideally has 10 or more runs over hurdles
- Has won a Grade 1 before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 2/26 (8%) & 1/11 (9%)
- 5yo – 9/26 (35%) & 3/11 (27%)
- 6yo – 6/26 (23%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 7yo – 4/26 (15%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 8yo – 2/26 (8%) & 1/11 (9%)
- 9yo – 2/26 (8%) & 1/11 (9%)
- 10yo – 0/26 (0%) & 0/11 (0%)
- 11yo – 1/26 (4%) & 1/11 (9%)
In the last decade 5-year-olds, 9-year-olds and 11-year-olds are profitable to back blind and the former and the latter boast impressive strike rates of 43% and 50% respectively.
This century it’s the same trio that are profitable blind but simply with slightly decreased strike rates. That said, 9-year-olds operate at about the same rate in both periods.
PRICE
- Favourites – 14/26 (54%) & 5/11 (45%)
With many Champion Hurdlers in here but obviously not many holding that stature, you would expect many favourites to win this, and they show a 2p profit this century if backing blind so they’re neutral although positive when considering overround.
There has been NO winning 3rd favourite this century and while 2nd favourites are the next winning most market position, 4th and 5th favourites are both profitable to back blind.
With that in mind, in the last decade, we’ve had 5 winning favourites but they are showing a 33% losing ROI, 4th favourites have had four winners, which is all the winners from that market ranking this century and show a 310% ROI.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 17/26 (65%) & 7/11 (64%)
- Second – 5/26 (19%) & 1/11 (9%)
- Has run this season – 12/26 (46%) & 4/11 (36%)
- Ran at exactly 2m or shorter – 12/26 (46%) & 5/11 (45%)
When looking at last time out characteristics I discovered that while 18 winners raced at about 2 miles or shorter (16.5f at the maximum) they were not profitable to back blind as a group. When reducing to 16f at the maximum trip raced at last time out we lost 6 winners but turned the qualifiers into a profitable system for an 8% ROI to SP but 128% to Betfair SP. In the last decade the ROI’s increase to 48% and 160% respectively.
That group were not boosted by a single big priced winner, but rather 3 were priced between 16/1 and 25/1 which when added to the qualifying criteria changes the ROI’s to 340% and 930% respectively. Fair to say if you’re going to find a bigger priced winner, they must have run at no further than exactly 2 miles last time out.
Most winners had won last time out which is also profitable to back blind this century. The bulk of the remainder placed second last time out which again is profitable to back blind this century although it isn’t in the last decade.
COURSE FORM – (excluded 2008, 2010 and 2023 as held away from Newcastle)
- Winners who had RUN at Newcastle – 8/23 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Winners who had WON at Newcastle – 6/8 (75%) & 4/5 (80%)
Of those who had run at Newcastle this century, 75% had won here too and they’re profitable to back blind showing a 21% ROI to SP and 208% ROI to Betfair SP. It increases to 116% and 303% respectively in the last decade! So while it’s not entirely required to have been here before, if you have you should have won here too.
CAREER FORM
- 10 or more RUNS over hurdles – 11/26 (42%) & 6/11 (55%)
- Had won a Grade 1 – 17/26 (65%) & 8/11 (73%)
Just over half of winners in the last decade had run at least 10 times over hurdles and they’re profitable blind showing a 60% ROI to SP alone! Looking at all races this century though they just about break even showing a 0.2% ROI but using Betfair SP they are still profitable and show an 85% ROI.
Around two thirds of winners this century had already won a Grade 1 and they’re profitable to follow blind showing a 33% ROI to SP alone. A higher percentage of winners tick that box in the last decade and they’re still profitable to back blind, but at a reduced ROI of 10%.