The 2025 running of the Group 1 Fillies’ Mile is approaching, and Dave Young has run through all of the key stats to point you towards this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Draw preference would go to the higher drawn runners
- Respect favourites who are sent off 9/4 or shorter
- Placed Top 3 last time out and last ran 16-30 days ago
- Has 3 or more career runs but preference for exactly 3
- Has won at 7 or 8 furlongs but preference for those who have won at 8
- Respect Joseph O’Brien runners
Focused Trends
STALLS
- Drawn in the lowest three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Drawn in the highest three stalls – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Drawn in second highest stall – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
A higher drawn stall would look preferable in this race in it’s entirety but even more since changing the Newmarket. Backing the second widest drawn runner shows a 160% ROI in the last decade.
PRICE
- Favourites – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
- SP of 4/1 or shorter – 18/25 (72%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites are profitable to follow blind across both periods measured but thanks to the results that have come in the last decade.
Most winners were priced 4/1 or shorter but it’s not profitable to follow those alone. However, if you were to back all runners sent off 9/4 or shorter you would show an 80% ROI in the last decade.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an allocated OR – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
This race is for 2-year-olds and while it’s late enough in the season that you would think most horses would hold and OR by now, that’s not quite the case.
Around half of winners did NOT hold and allocated Official Rating and the split in terms of number of runners has fallen from just under half to just over a third. While it’s not profitable, there would be a lower loss made if following runners without an OR coming into this race.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 18/25 (72%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Top 3 last time out – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Ran in the last 16-30 days – 13/25 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Doncaster or Curragh last time out – 14/25 (56%) & 6/10 (60%)
Every winner placed at least Top 3 last time out and most of those had won. It is a heavy loss maker to follow last time out winners and while following second placed runners is profitable this century, it’s not been in the last decade. Horses who placed 3rd last time out have been profitable to follow blind in the last decade with a 140% ROI.
There have been 10 winners from the May Hill Stakes this century and 3 of those came in the last decade, including last years’ winner Desert Flower.
FORM
- Two career runs – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Three career runs – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Four or more career runs – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Max distance win at 7f – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Max distance win at 1m – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
All winners of this race had won at either 7 or 8 furlongs but it’s been profitable to back all runners who had their maximum distance win at 8 furlongs across both periods.
Most winners had 3 or more runs in their career but it’s been profitable to back all runners who had exactly 3 runs blind across both periods.
TRAINER
- Aidan or Joseph O’Brien – 7 & 5
- The Gosdens – 6 & 2
I’ve shown the winners for The Gosdens and The O’Briens as they’re the most prolific trainers. Joseph O’Brien has two winners and has had just two runners so that is noteworthy.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century – GB bred unless stated):
- 2000 – Crystal Music (USA)
- 2001 – Gossamer
- 2002 – Soviet Song (IRE)
- 2003 – Red Bloom
- 2004 – Playful Act (IRE)
- 2005 – Nannina
- 2006 – Simply Perfect
- 2007 – Listen (IRE)
- 2008 – Rainbow View (USA)
- 2009 – Hibaayeb
- 2010 – White Moonstone (USA)
- 2011 – Lyric Of Light
- 2012 – Certify (USA)
- 2013 – Chriselliam (IRE)
- 2014 – Together Forever (IRE)
- 2015 – Minding (IRE)
- 2016 – Rhododendron (IRE)
- 2017 – Laurens (FR)
- 2018 – Iridessa (IRE)
- 2019 – Quadrilateral
- 2020 – Pretty Gorgeous (FR)
- 2021 – Inspiral
- 2022 – Commissioning
- 2023 – Ylang Ylang
- 2024 – Desert Flower (IRE)