The Group 1 Futurity Trophy is the last top level race on the flat in Britain this season. Exclusive for the two-year-olds and so often a race which produces high class horses, this year’s renewal may well be no different. GG tipster Joe Napier gives his thoughts on the race with his verdict for the 2025 edition below.
Favourites
He has not won either of the past two runnings of the Futurity Trophy, but Aidan O’Brien has still won four of them since 2017 and has three of the six participants this season. Two of those are the pair of market leaders in Benvenuto Cellini and Hawk Mountain, both bred in the purple as you would expect.
Starting with Benvenuto Cellini, he is a son of Frankel and Newspaperofrecord, so could hardly be from a better family. He began his career with a second to stablemate Dorset at the Curragh, with that neighbour going onto decent things this season, though you suspect Benvenuto Cellini may have improved past that, himself winning at Killarney next time out with soft in the going description, then claiming the Group 2 Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown by five lengths.
Heavy ground could well be prominent on Saturday and play a part in proceedings and Hawk Mountain has also won with soft in the description at the Curragh. That was in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes over 1m last time out, with his career playing out similarly to his aforementioned stablemate; defeat on debut, but victories the next twice in highly promising fashion.
There is little to separate them, but jockey bookings potentially a crucial clue, with Christophe Soumillon aboard Benvenuto Cellini and Ronan Whelan currently jocked up aboard Hawk Mountain, with Wayn Lordan surprisingly choosing the third O’Brien runner Action.
Contenders
Another son of Frankel, Oxagon is the only former Group 1 participant in the field having contested the Dewhurst just two weeks ago. He ran well enough when fifth that day and the step up to 1m should be no issue, albeit there are slightly mixed signals on how he will handle soft or heavy going. That said, it is a show of faith and intent from the Gosdens to run him in this race too.
Item is the other prominent runner for the home team. Andrew Balding’s charge is the only unbeaten competition, winning his first two starts at Kempton and Bath, that latter race in particular being a winnable contest. Then again, his debut victory has worked out pretty well and his wins have been comfortable, while his dam won on soft ground to provide hope in that respect.
Outsiders
Completing the O’Brien trio, Action is closely related to recent Derby hero Lambourn, who won on soft as a juvenile. Action has not done so yet, scoring on good at Galway after a close third on debut, while he was also third in the Group 2 Royal Lodge at Newmarket over 1m last month. That is solid form and he saw out the trip well, so should not be discounted, as he possesses a similar rating to his two stablemates in this race, as evidenced by Wayne Lordan being aboard.
The final member of the sextet, Rochfortbridge defeated a Listed runner-up on debut before stepping into Pattern company himself. His fourth in another hot edition of the Acomb Stakes at York was a good effort, but he has been held on soft ground the last twice, including in Listed company, so should find this above his grade.
Verdict
The O’Brien jockey bookings have shaken up the market significantly. Action is respected, with Wayne Lordan being aboard a sign that he is of comparable ability to the top two. However, more promising is Christophe Soumillon’s choice, BENVENUTO CELLINI, an exceptionally bred son of Frankel who has looked out of the ordinary the last twice. Hawk Mountain has to be respected too while Item can provide the sternest defence from the home team.
- Benvenuto Cellini
- Action
- Item
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