The last domestic G1 of the year and there are some household names among the previous winners. I’ve looked at all runnings this century with a view against the 10 renewals to see if we can work out what it takes to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites have a great record with a 60% strike rate this century and 12 of the 15 were odds-against
- Ideally placed last time out but ideally won
- If didn’t place then can be excused if running at 7 furlongs last time out
- Has run in the last 6 weeks or if not, comes here after winning a maiden
- Preferably last ran in a Group race
- Will have two or more runs this season and 2 or more wins but doesn’t need to be unbeaten
- Preference must go to horses who have already secured a Group win but doesn’t have to be a Group 1
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
The market seems to know this race well and it’s been consistent in the last 10 years as at has been this century with around 60% of winners being sent off as favourite. If you were to bet a £1 level stake, you’d be showing a healthy 67% ROI this century and 54% in the last 10 years so while the market is clearly able to distinguish who should be top of the list, the bookmakers are allowing them to be profitable too with 12 of the 15 sent off odds against.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 13/24 (54%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
We’ve had a couple of runnings not at Doncaster (2006 at Newbury and 2019 at Newcastle on the AW) but whether we include or exclude those we’re really looking at no bias in a draw, especially here at Doncaster.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 15/24 (63%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Group Race – 16/24 (67%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 7F – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8F –16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 42 days or less – 21/24 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Around 60% of winners won last time out and around 80% of winners at least placed last time out. 3 of the 4 horses who did NOT place last time out, did so at 7 furlongs so that could be excused. Two-thirds of winner ran at 8 furlongs last time out and more recently there’s been a bias to horses who ran in Group company last time out, rising from 67% this century to 90% in the last 10. The vast majority of winners will come here having run inside the last 6 weeks, but a few have been held back longer to land this but all came from winning their maiden.
COURSE FORM (Excluded 2006 & 2019 as run elsewhere)
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 1/22 (5%) & 1/9 (11%)
Lots of lightly raced horses in here so no real surprise to see only 1 winner had been seen at Doncaster before. Notable though that Rivet who did race here in 2016 also won here. So, you wouldn’t want to discriminate unless a horse has run and been beaten here.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 8f – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at 8f – 13/18 (72%) & 5/7 (71%)
Similar results for both this century and the last 10 with 75% and 70% respectively having run at 8 furlongs already and of those it’s about 70% won at the trip too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 19/24 (79%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 11/24 (46%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 6/24 (25%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 1/24 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Unbeaten this season – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 9/24 (38%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2 wins this season – 10/24 (42%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 3 wins this season – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
There’s a certain increase in the volume of racing being had before landing this race in the last 10 years compared to this century as a whole. All of the last 10 winners has raced 2 or more times and 40% of the last 10 compared to 25% this century had 4 or more runs coming into this.
Very few winners came here unbeaten but about 80% across both measures had won at least half of their races and no maiden has won this since Authorized in 2006 when the race was switched to Newbury, or even 2000 and Dishan for a maiden winner of this at this track.
With more races you’d expect potentially more wins, and that is true with 70% of recent winners having 2 or more wins to their name compared to just over half of winners this century.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group Race – 12/24 (50%) & 7/10 (70%)
Another marker for increased experience is that 7 of the 12 winners of this race who had already won a Group race came in the last 10 years, and another was just outside the cut off a year prior. There’s only been one previous Group 1 winner to land this which was French raider American Post back in 2003.
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