The Futurity Trophy is the last domestic G1 of the year and I’ve looked at all runnings this century to see if we can work out what it takes to win this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites have a decent record and are profitable to back blind
- Unlikely to have already raced at Doncaster
- Raced in the last 6 weeks
- Raced in a Group race last time out
- If twice raced at a mile they should have won both races
- Will have been beaten if having run three or more times already
- Should have won at least half of their races
- Probably has already won a Group race
Focused Trends
PRICE
- Favourites – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
15 winning favourites this century which show a 63% ROI if backing blind and it’s 5 from the last 10 which show a 28% ROI. Second and third favourites have landed 2 renewals each this century and one each from the last decade but are big loss makers.
Horses ranked 6th and 7th in the market at SP have secured 3 wins each this century with a 43% and 300% ROI respectively. In the last decade, they have secured 2 and 1 wins each for a 110% ROI and 277% ROI respectively.
Ultimately, you want to respect and favour the favourites, but you could cover with 6th and 7th in the betting (where applicable) to build a system which is profitable and will find you more than 80% of the winners.
DRAW
- Drawn in the TOP half – 14/25 (54%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/25 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the TOP three stalls – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM three stalls – 7/25 (28%) & 2/10 (20%)
The two halves analysis does not reach 100% as we had a winner who was drawn in the middle of a 7-runner field. Still, there doesn’t appear to be a huge draw bias although there could be a marginal preference to being drawn higher rather than lower.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Placed – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Group Race – 17/25 (68%) & 9/10 (90%)
- 7F – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8F –17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 42 days or less – 22/25 (88%) & 9/10 (90%)
Around 60% of winners won last time out but it’s a heavy loss maker to follow blind. Most winners last ran at 8 furlongs rather than 7 furlongs, but all winners raced at one of those two trips.
All the last 9 winners ran in a Group race last time out and in the last 42 days or less. Three of those came from the Beresford Stakes and that trio all won that race as well as this.
COURSE FORM (Excluded 2006 & 2019 as run elsewhere)
- Winners who had RUN at Doncaster – 1/23 (5%) & 1/9 (11%)
There aren’t many Group race opportunities at Doncaster so it’s not surprising that all bar one winner had not raced at this track before. The one runner who had run here had also won here too.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 8f – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at 8f – 14/19 (74%) & 5/7 (71%)
Only 4 winners this century had two runs at a mile and each of those won both of those races. The majority though had one run at a mile and almost three quarters of those had won at a mile too.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 20/25 (80%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 7/25 (28%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 2/25 (8%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Unbeaten this season – 6/25 (24%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 50% or more of races this season won – 20/25 (80%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 0 wins this season – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 9/24 (36%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 2 wins this season – 10/24 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 3 wins this season – 4/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
All winners who were unbeaten had raced no more than twice but we’ve not had a winner who comes here from just one run since 2012. 80% of winners across both periods had won at least half of their races.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group Race – 13/25 (52%) & 7/10 (70%)
There has only been one winner of this race who had previously won a Group 1, that winner came back in 2003 and was a French raider.
Both winners who won away from this being held at Doncaster had NOT already won a Group race. This means that 9 of the last 11 running’s at this track were won by a horse who had already landed a Group race.