Galway racecourse is known for being a unique test and their summer festival attracts some very high-profile runners. No Tudor City this year but this Grade 3 Handicap Hurdle always displays some serious talent. I’ve investigated every running this century with a view against the last 10 renewals to profile what it might take to find this year’s winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Avoid 8-year-olds
- Second favourites greatly outperform favourites and are profitable to follow blind
- Holds an Official Rating of between 135 and 146
- Carrying between 10-9 and 11-7
- Respect horses who placed 3rd last time out
- NO headgear unless a 7yo in headgear they have run in before
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 6yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 8yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 9yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
10-year-olds are the only profitable age to back blind across both periods but that’s thanks to one 22/1 winner.
As for strike-rates; the 4-year-olds fare well comparatively as do the 9 and 10-year-olds but most winners in terms of volume come from the 5 to 7-year-old bracket. Ultimately, age tells us to avoid 8-year-olds.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2nd favourites – 9/25 (36%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Top 6 in the betting – 18/25 (72%) & 8/10 (80%)
Second favourites are money makers across both periods with healthy 85% and 145%. Backing all the top 6 in the betting wouldn’t make any money but it would find you the majority of winners.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of between 136 and 146 – 10/25 (40%) & 8/10 (80%)
In the last 10 renewals there has been no runner rated under 130 but in the period before that this century there were 8 winners rated lower than 130. This is a recency swing, and the preference now must go to horses with an OR of 136 and 146. The 11th and 12th latest winners held the OR of 135 so I would suggest it’s worth considering those just outside the 136 to 146 band.
WEIGHT
- Winners carrying 10-9 to 11-7 – 12/25 (48%) & 7/10 (70%)
There has been just one winner in the last decade to carry less than 10-9 but before that this century there were a further 10. Again, like Official Rating, I believe this is a turning trend so look to those carrying between 10-9 and 11-7.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 9/25 (36%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Finished top 3 last time out – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Ran in the last 60 days – 21/25 (84%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners finished top 3 last time out but that’s not profitable to back on its own. However, if you backed all runners who placed 3rd last time out that has been profitable to back blind.
Most winners had run in the last 60 days, but preference would go to horses who last ran between 31 and 60 days as they are profitable in the last decade and very small loss makers this century.
COURSE FORM
- NOT run at Galway – 15/25 (60%) & 7/10 (70%)
- HAS run at Galway – 10/25 (40%) & 3/10 (30%)
Galway is renowned for being a track which doesn’t suit every horse, but most winners of this race had NOT already been to Galway. For those who had been here before, horses with just one run performed worse than those having their first look so if they have experience, look to those with 2 or 3 runs at this track, preference for exactly 3.
HEADGEAR
- IS wearing headgear – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- IS NOT wearing headgear – 21/25 (84%) & 9/10 (90%)
3 of the 4 winners who sported headgear were 7-year-olds and the other was a 6-year-old. None of these were sporting the headgear for the first time. Preference must go to horses without headgear, but I’d forgive 7-year-olds not in first time headgear given this data.
DISTANCE FORM
- Max distance win at 2m1f or shorter – 17/25 (68%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 1-3 wins at 2m – 23/25 (92%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners this century has between 1 and 3 wins at exactly 2 miles and it’s been profitable to back runners with exactly 3 wins.
Most winners also had their furthest win at 2m1f or shorter, so preference goes to those runners.