Galway racecourse is known for being a unique test and their summer festival attracts some very high-profile runners. Two of the most anticipated races across the week come in the form of two handicaps which are typically targeted some way out and the big yards often have something they’d expect to go well.
In this article I’ve looked at both these races with a view to what it’s typically taken to land each contest and whether there are any trends that might be turning. Hopefully, we can use what we know to help find the winners of these races.
GALWAY PLATE – GRADE 3 HANDICAP CHASE – 2M6½F
The first of the two big Grade 3’s comes with the Galway Plate which sees Gordon Elliott as the winning-most trainer with 5 wins since his first in 2016 and he took this race with Western Fold 12 months ago. That horse went on to land a Grade 2 chase next time out and ended last season with a Grade 1 win at the Punchestown Festival. Future King George winner Hewick took this race too, so that’s a taster of the type of horse who can win this race but is it all about future class?
THIS CENTURY
- 22 winners had run at about 2m6f or further before now
- 22 winners did NOT wear any form of headgear (3 of the last 4 winners did)
- 20 winners were sent off 13/2 or bigger but it’s profitable to back everything sent off shorter blind
- 19 winners carried 10 stone something (10-04, 10-05, 10-12 & 10-13 all multiple wins and profitable blind)
- 18 winners last ran at either Punchestown (7), Tipperary (4), Ballinrobe (4) or Killarney (3)
- 16 winners had between 4 and 6 runs in the previous 365 days (those with 4 runs are profitable to back blind)
- 15 winners placed Top 2 last time out (7% strike-rate not profitable blind)
- 12 winners were aged 7 and they are profitable to back blind (+£42 & 37% ROI)
- More winners had NOT previously raced at Galway and it’s 50/50 for those who had raced here as to whether they won or not too
THE LAST 10 RENEWALS
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 to 8 years old (others are 1 from 90)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had raced at about 2m6f or further (the other had run at 2m4f)
- 7 of the last 10 winners place Top 3 last time out (last time out winners profitable blind)
- 7 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 145 or higher
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from either Punchestown (4) or Ballinrobe (3)
- 6 of the last 10 winners had run at Galway and 4 of those had won (not profitable blind)
- 6 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting but only 1 winning favourite
- 5 of the last 10 winners had either 4 or 5 runs in the previous 365 days (those with 4 runs are profitable to back blind)
SUMMARY
For all that Galway is a niche track, course experience isn’t essential for the winner to have. You are looking for a horse with about 4 runs in the previous 365 days, preferably aged 7 but can be 1 year either side of that and you can also expect that the winner will have run well last time out (placing Top 3) and respect horses coming from Punchestown and Ballinrobe.
You’d expect the winner to have run over at least about 2m6f before now and they should have won at 2m4f or further too. The rating bar is starting to move up though, so while runners in the 10 stones should be respected, you’d consider all runners who hold an OR of 145 or above.
While headgear has not been present on the majority of winners, 4 of the last 7 and all of the last 3 sported some form of headgear which might point to a turning trend, or even one that’s already turned.
GALWAY HURDLE – GRADE 3 HANDICAP HURDLE – 2M
It wouldn’t be a National Hunt article without a strong mention for Willie Mullins who might not have tasted the most success in the Galway Plate but he has taken the Galway Hurdle on 5 occasions from the last 10 renewals. No win for him in the last two years though and Tudor City twice took the honours for Tony Martin who himself has 4 wins in the race coming from the last 12 renewals.
Jospeh O’Brien (2) and Gordon Elliott (1) have taken the other 3 renewals from the last 16 mentioned and with Gordon Elliott winning both races covered here last season, I’m sure he will have ambitions for more of the same.
THIS CENTURY
- 22 winners were no older than 7 (none of those ages are profitable blind though)
- 22 winners did NOT wear any form of headgear
- 21 winners ran in the last 60 days
- 20 winners placed Top 3 last time out (those placing 3rd last time out are profitable blind)
- 18 winners had NOT won over further than 2m1f (the other 8 had their furthest win at 2m4f)
- 16 winners held an OR of at least 130
- 16 winners last ran at either Curragh (3), Galway (3), Leopardstown (3), Tipperary (3), Ascot (2) or Limerick (2)
- 15 winners had NOT run at Galway before (6 of the 11 who had run here had won here)
- 14 winners were sent off between 9/2 and 8/1 and are profitable blind (£28.5 & 43% ROI)
- Just 2 winners had either 4 or 5 runs in the previous 365 days (all has 3 and many had up to 10)
THE LAST 10 RENEWALS
- ALL of the last 10 winners carried 10-09 or more (others are 0 from 61)
- 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT wear any form of headgear
- 9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of at least 139
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off no bigger than 12/1
- 8 of the last 10 winners were no older than 7
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran 60 days ago or less
- 7 of the last 10 winners placed Top 3 last time out (those placing 3rd last time out are profitable blind)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had their furthest win at 2m1f or shorter (other 3 had their furthest at 2m4f)
- 6 of the last 10 winners had NOT previously run at Galway (2 of the 4 who did had won here too)
- 6 of the last 10 winners last ran at either Ascot (2), Leopardstown (2) or Tipperary (2)
- 4 of the last 10 winners were sent off as the second favourite
SUMMARY
The winner of this race has typically run well last time out although isn’t expected to have won last time out but likely finished Top 3. Most winners have raced in the last 60 days and the winner is unlikely to be older than 7.
Unlikely to be wearing headgear and also unlikely to be sent off a big price with most winners having a single figure SP. Should have their furthest win at 2m4f at the most but preferably no further than 2m1f.
Isn’t expected to have run at Galway before and likely last ran at Ascot, Leopardstown or Tipperary.
Commercial notice: This article on GG.co.uk contains affiliate links. The offers we promote come from operators that we trust and our experts have first-hand experience dealing with. If you open an account through one of these affiliate links then GG will earn revenue. However, we ensure that the money earned goes back into improving and enhancing our coverage of horse racing and other sports, as we look to provide an excellent service to our growing audience.