Galway racecourse is known for being a unique test and their summer festival attracts some very high-profile runners. I’ve looked at the Galway Plate this century and compared to the last decade to see if I can profile what it takes to land this big summer prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to 7-year-olds
- Respect the top 3 in the market, especially 2nd and 3rd favourites
- Will have an OR below 147 or must be wearing headgear if rated 147 or higher
- Likely to be carrying less than 11 stone
- MUST have run in the last 120 days, preferably in the last 100 days
- Should have won over at least 2m4f before now
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 2/25 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 6/25 (24%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 9yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
7-year-olds have the highest strike rate across both periods with 11% this century and 12% in the last decade. They’re also profitable to back blind with £45 profit and £18.5 respectively.
8-year-olds have been profitable in the last decade but are heavy loss makers this century.
PRICE
- Favourites – 5/25 (20%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2nd & 3rd favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 5/10 (50%)
Favourites are loss makers to follow blind this century as are 2nd and 3rd favourites although they account for almost the same number of winners. In the last decade, 2nd and 3rd favourites have found half of the winners and each show a profit if following blind.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 146 or lower – 21/25 (84%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners hold an OR of 146 or lower. What is interesting though is the 3 winners in the last decade who won while rated 147 or higher all wore headgear. This century there has only been one other winner with an OR of 147 or more who didn’t wear headgear. Higher rated runners should have headgear, otherwise look for a horse 146 or lower.
WEIGHT
- Winners carrying less than 11 stone – 22/25 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners have carried less than 11 stone. This isn’t profitable to follow blind and might not whittle down the field.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Finished top 3 last time out – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran in the last 120 days – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Most winners finished top 3 last time out but that’s not profitable to back on its own. All winners last ran within 120 days of this race and most of those were inside 100 days.
Horses coming from Punchestown or Ballinrobe last time out are profitable to back blind across both periods and you can respect runners from Tipperary too.
COURSE FORM
- NOT run at Galway – 13/25 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- HAS run at Galway – 12/25 (48%) & 6/10 (60%)
At first glance, course form isn’t a major benefit with this century’s winners sitting near the 50/50 mark. More recently, course form has been a positive, however the data shows that having course experience is most beneficial if having run multiple times over the long term. The A/E (Actual vs Expected) increased significantly from as low as 0.4 to 1.53 when having 4 or more runs at the track. No winner in the last decade had 4 or more runs though so it’s a bit of a loose trend to apply and may be turning or have already turned.
HEADGEAR
- IS wearing headgear – 4/25 (16%) & 4/10 (40%)
- IS NOT wearing headgear – 21/25 (84%) & 6/10 (60%)
Most winners did NOT wear any headgear and 3 of the 4 winners who did, had worn the headgear before. As mentioned earlier in the Official Rating section, the 3 winners who were NOT in first time headgear all held an OR of 147 or higher.
DISTANCE FORM
- Has RUN over 2m4f or further – 24/25 (96%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had WON over 2m4f or further – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
Most winners of the Galway Plate had won over at least 2m4f before now and only one winner had not raced at least at 2m4f before landing this.