The GG Hot List checks every runner in Britain and Ireland against five signals: market support, naps from in-form tipsters, course form, trainer form and the jockey’s record at the track. It then picks out the horses where those signals agree. Today’s leader is Star Cast in the 15:08 at Ayr, backed from 15/2 to 3/1 with bet365, napped by two papers and a previous winner at the course.
How the Hot List works
A runner needs at least two of five signals: a market move across at least two tracked bookmakers; support from the naps feed; a winning course record; trainer form over the previous 14 days; or the jockey’s record at the course. The list is ranked first by number of signals, then market move, then number of naps. It contains no more than eight runners and the thresholds are not lowered on a quiet day. Non-runners are excluded before an editor publishes.
Today’s Hot List
| No. | Horse | Race | Angle | Evidence | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Star Cast | 15:08 Ayr | Backed / Napped / Course | 15/2 to 3/1 (bet365); 2 naps; 1 win from 3 at Ayr | 3/1 bet365 |
| 2 | Distillation | 18:00 Wolverhampton | Napped / Course / Jockey | Lee Sobot’s nap; 2 wins from 5 at Wolverhampton; Rose Dawes 9 from 49 here | 5/4 Paddy Power |
| 3 | Ensor Mews | 17:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Trainer | 15/2 to 2/1 (bet365); Ralph Beckett 9 from 44 in 14 days | 9/4 William Hill |
| 4 | Chilly Breeze | 15:02 Bath | Backed / Jockey | 20/1 to 13/2 (Betfred); Silvestre de Sousa 5 from 25 at Bath | 9/1 Paddy Power |
| 5 | Parisiac | 16:40 Ayr | Backed / Course | 16/1 to 11/2 (bet365); 2 wins from 6 at Ayr | 11/2 bet365 |
| 6 | Implied Volatility | 16:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Trainer | 12/1 to 7/1 (bet365); Jennie Candlish 4 from 19 in 14 days | 7/1 bet365 |
| 7 | Anthony Of Lisbon | 13:55 Cork | Backed / Trainer | 16/1 to 7/1 (Paddy Power); Aidan O’Brien 9 from 44 in 14 days | 15/2 bet365 |
| 8 | First Encounter | 20:30 Wolverhampton | Backed / Course | 33/1 to 12/1 (Betfred); 1 win from 4 at Wolverhampton | 12/1 Betfred |
1. Star Cast · 15:08 Ayr
Star Cast is the only horse on today’s list to tick three signals and be backed as well. All five bookmakers we track are at least 20% shorter, and bet365 has cut the price from 15/2 to 3/1. Marlborough in the Daily Telegraph and Glendale in The Scotsman both make Star Cast their nap, and Glendale has found 7 winners from 25 naps this month. There’s a previous win here too, from three runs at Ayr, where the going is heavy, soft in places. Watch Tipsy Tiger in the same race: also napped twice, and backed from 10/1 to 4/1 with Betfred.
2. Distillation · 18:00 Wolverhampton
Distillation ticks three boxes but comes with a warning. It’s the nap of Lee Sobot of the Yorkshire Evening Post, who has 9 winners from 28 naps this month. Distillation has won two of five starts at Wolverhampton, and Rose Dawes has ridden 9 winners from 49 rides at the track. The market disagrees, though: Paddy Power has pushed it out from 8/13 to 5/4. The money in this race has gone on Dark Mandate, backed from 4/1 to 6/4 with Sky Bet.
3. Ensor Mews · 17:30 Wolverhampton
This is the biggest mover on today’s list. Ensor Mews has been cut from 15/2 to 2/1 by both bet365 and Betfred, and every bookmaker with a price history is at least 20% shorter. Ralph Beckett’s yard is in form, with 9 winners from 44 runners in the last fortnight.
4. Chilly Breeze · 15:02 Bath
Chilly Breeze has been backed with all five bookmakers, and Betfred has gone from 20/1 to 13/2. Silvestre de Sousa rides, with 5 winners from 25 rides at Bath. The race also includes Bath specialist Blue Hero, with 11 wins from 37 runs here and the Racing Post’s West Country nap. Blue Hero has drifted, though, from 15/2 to 14/1 with bet365.
5. Parisiac · 16:40 Ayr
Parisiac is less than half the price it opened at. bet365 has gone 11/2 from 16/1, and all five bookmakers are at least 20% shorter. Parisiac has also won two of six starts at Ayr, and Melissa Jones in the Daily Express makes it the nap. Woven, in the same race, has the biggest single price move on the Ayr card, from 20/1 to 7/2 with Betfred.
6. Implied Volatility · 16:30 Wolverhampton
Implied Volatility is shorter with all five bookmakers: from 12/1 to 7/1 with bet365, and from 14/1 to 11/2 with Paddy Power. Trainer Jennie Candlish has 4 winners from 19 runners in the last fortnight. Magic Runner, in the same race, has also been backed, from 22/1 to 9/1 with bet365, for another yard in form, Ruth Carr’s.
7. Anthony Of Lisbon · 13:55 Cork
The first race of the day brings the first gamble. Anthony Of Lisbon is into 7/1 from 16/1 with Paddy Power, and four of five bookmakers are at least 20% shorter. Aidan O’Brien has had 9 winners from 44 runners in the last 14 days. Keep an eye on Lion Of Fortune in the same maiden. It’s the biggest mover of the morning, cut from 50/1 to 14/1 with William Hill.
8. First Encounter · 20:30 Wolverhampton
In the last race of the evening, First Encounter has been backed from 33/1 to 12/1 with Betfred, and every bookmaker with a price history is at least 20% shorter. First Encounter has won one of four starts at Wolverhampton, and The Punt in the Racing Post makes it the nap.
Whose NAP to trust
These are the three most successful nap tipsters of the last 28 days, and what they’ve chosen today:
- Ratings Hub (At The Races): 15 winners from 28 naps (54%). Today: Pink Venom, 14:25 Cork, a shade shorter at 5/4 from 13/8 with bet365.
- Mercury (Daily Post): 13 winners from 28 naps (46%). Today: Close House, 16:45 Sedgefield. Only Betfred has cut it, from 5/2 to 5/6.
- BGTips.co.uk: 9 winners from 23 naps (39%). Today: Passengerontheship, 15:15 Sedgefield, which is drifting; the best price is 2/1 with Sky Bet.
The most-napped horse of the day is South Shore (16:02 Bath), with four naps, but the market has gone the other way: 9/4 to 11/4 with bet365. You can see every nap in Today’s Naps Table.
Biggest moves this morning
Backed
- Lion Of Fortune (13:55 Cork): from 50/1 to 14/1 with William Hill. Four of five bookmakers are shorter, though bet365 has gone the other way, from 11/1 to 18/1.
- Melody Man (14:38 Ayr): from 22/1 to 5/1 with bet365. Every bookmaker with a price history is shorter.
- Ensor Mews (17:30 Wolverhampton): from 15/2 to 2/1 with bet365. It’s also on today’s list.
Drifting
- Showtown (16:08 Ayr): from 4/1 to 14/1 with bet365.
- Kindest Nation (14:08 Ayr): from 8/1 to 25/1 with Betfred.
Expert verdict
“Andrew Mount’s own nap, Empirestateofmind (Ayr 14:08), ticks two signals but just missed the top eight on price movement”
How yesterday’s Hot List did
The Hot List launches today, so there’s no record yet. From tomorrow, this section will show how each selection did, scored as a £1 win bet at starting price.
Prices correct at 12:00 and subject to change.
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