Sunday’s racing features the Irish Cesarewitch from the Curragh, with four meetings across Britain and Ireland in all. GG tipster Joe Napier looks to some big Group contests for his win only Lucky 15 on the day.
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2.20 Epsom – SHAYEM (1pt win – 5/4 generally)
While there could be improvement to come from either Alfaraz or Gizmo, SHAYEM boasts a novice success overcoming greenness, as well as a Listed third over 1m at Haydock last time. He was just over a length ahead of Glacius there and while things could get tactical here, with that rival likely to race more prominently in this four-runner field, that is enough of an advantage, coupled with how well Karl Burke’s juveniles have been running this season, to give him a fair betting edge even at shorter odds. The extra half furlong in this contest should be no issue either.
2.37 Curragh – KENSINGTON LANE (1pt win – 5/1 Paddy Power)
Four of the last five winners of this Group 3 have run at least four times, so in a market dominated by those to have run three times or fewer, KENSINGTON LANE could represent a touch of value. Donnacha O’Brien’s filly took until her fifth start to get off the mark, but she had been steadily improving after two low-key efforts to begin her career. She was second to a now 98-rated rival at Down Royal while her conqueror next time out at the Curragh is favourite for the Group 2 Beresford Stakes on Saturday at the time of writing. Even the runner-up to her as she belatedly scored latest at Gowran Park has won since and she might put all of that experience together here.
3.12 Curragh – MY MATE ALFIE (1pt win – 7/2 Paddy Power/Sky Bet)
He was disappointing on his first start outside Ireland in the Sprint Cup most recently, but MY MATE ALFIE is a consistently high performer on home turf. Ger Lyons’ charge has been frustrated by three runner-up efforts this term, but he has been carrying Group race penalties in Listed events, including when second over course and distance when conceding 10lb to Vespertilio in June. He only conceded that 103-rated rival 3lb here, and with all of Art Power, Spycatcher and Big Gossey long in the tooth, Ides Of March out of form and King Cuan facing worse terms here for finishing behind the selection over the summer, he rates a strong favourite.
4.22 Curragh – NURBURGRING (1pt win – 14/1 Coral)
It is plausible that this has been the aim for NURBURGRING on the flat ever since he was a neck second in the Ascot Stakes at Royal Ascot, form which was franked by the reopposing winner Ascending finishing second in the Ebor. That rival is trading four points shorter as this is written, which is a surprise on terms 2lb worse. The selection enjoys a test of stamina on the level and is the choice of Dylan Browne McMonagle of the seven Joseph O’Brien runners. That retention of faith may speak volumes with him not having run for 60 days, so while first time blinkers are a curiosity, he is expected to be backed down towards the head of the betting.
GG Lucky 15 Tips For Saturday 27th September