A busy Wednesday of racing sees six meetings take place across Britain and Ireland but it is Kempton’s evening card which has caught GG tipster Joe Napier’s attention. Three of his four bets for GG’s Wednesday Lucky 15 come from the track, alongside one from Musselburgh.
4.05 Musselburgh – BRAZILIAN BELLE (1pt e/w – 11/1 Paddy Power/Hills)
Jim Goldie has got a tune out of the nine-year-old Arnhem on his two starts for a new yard, but Musselburgh was not the happiest hunting ground for him in the past and BRAZILIAN BELLE, six years his junior, looks a much better value inclusion. Michael Dods’ filly has run in 11 handicaps without finishing in the bottom half of the field, while also having taken her form up a notch since the start of July, winning at Thirsk, finishing a neck second over course and distance, then a length third at Beverley. A 50-day break saw her return with a lesser effort at that last track, but she is back down 2lb to the mark she was so close to winning off here three races ago, which makes her look overpriced.
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6.00 Kempton – AL SHABAB STORM (1pt e/w – 14/1 generally)
You would not know it based on the market, but AL SHABAB STORM is the highest-rated in this line-up and comes even further clear adjusted for the weights in this conditions event. It was only 13 months ago that he won a Group 3 in Germany, having also claimed a Listed prize on these shores at Chester, but his form has been poor on turf so far since joining Marco Botti. However, he is forgiven a poor performance in much lesser company last time given it was on soft ground over 7 1/2f, whereas this 6f trip on an all-weather surface should suit better. His first two runs on artificial surfaces for Botti saw him record RPRs in the 110s, and a revival of that level of form is far from ruled out given he is still only a four-year-old.
6.30 Kempton – ROGUE IMPACT (1pt e/w – 14/1 bet365/Hills)
James Owen enjoyed a treble across both codes on Tuesday, signalling a return to form after a slower week for his runners. ROGUE IMPACT was 13th of 18 in the Derby, but it is his maiden win on Polytrack at Lingfield which makes him stand out more in this contest. That form has worked out very well, as he beat the 92-rated Al Wasl Storm, who also ran in the Derby, while the third and fourth, who were well-beaten, now boast ratings of 85 and 77. That remains the son of Study Of Man’s only all-weather start, but though he has put in some poorer efforts on turf as late, he was given a ludicrous 3lb rise for finishing second of four three starts back, admittedly in a race working out well. Nevertheless, he is back down to a mark of 87 and so a repetition of form akin to his maiden win would make him very interesting.
7.00 Kempton – OLYMPIC CANDLE (1pt e/w – 4/1 bet365/Hills)
Stall 11 is far from ideal, but OLYMPIC CANDLE could easily be one to improve back on the British all-weather for Saeed Bin Suroor. His yard have a sensational record on artificial surfaces this season, striking with five of their 11 runners aged four and above. The selection here is now 7lb lower than when last running in the UK, when second at Southwell off 87 in September 2024. His current rating of 80 could be made to look a gift, especially as his plummet down the weights has come from running respectably in Dubai without quite making the frame earlier this year. Back on the Polytrack, on which he is unbeaten having won a novice event here as a juvenile, he can make the handicapper pay for their leniency.
GG Lucky 15 Tips For Wednesday 1st October