Glorious Goodwood gets underway in just one week’s time, and as ever with the big meetings, Dave Young looks into the trends that could point you towards some early punting success.
Coral Chesterfield Cup Handicap (Class 2) – 1m2f
- ALL of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or 5
- ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 25 days
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 95-102
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won at 10f
- 7 of the last 10 winners had fewer than 20 flat runs
- 5 of the last 10 winners were favourite or joint favourite
- 5 of the last 10 winners came from the top 3 or bottom 3 stalls
- 4 of the last 10 winners last raced in the John Smiths Cup at York
Will be aged 4 or 5, did NOT win last time out but likely ran well, last ran 25 days ago or less and with an OR of 95-102. Bonus points if last raced in the John Smiths Cup at York.
HKJC World Pool Vintage Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
- ALL of the last 10 winners placed top 2 last time out
- ALL of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT already raced at Goodwood
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already raced at 7f
- 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off as favourite
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners ran in the last 30 days
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already been beaten
Will have finished top 2 last time out but ideally won, should have 2+ runs and probably has been beaten, hasn’t run at Goodwood, has run at 7f and favourites do well.
World Pool Lennox Stakes (Group 2) – 7f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 3 or more career wins
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group race
- 9 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 110+
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had two or more wins at 7f
- 7 of the last 10 winners had NOT won that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already raced at Goodwood
Will have 3 or more career wins including a Group race, 2 or more runs this season although probably beaten last time out, has an OR of 110+ and aged 4 or older.
Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) – 2m
- ALL of the last 10 winners had won at least a Group 2
- 9 of the last 10 winners had last run between 21 and 40 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged 4 or older
- 9 of the last 10 winners won last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 115+
- 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at 16f (7 had won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran in the Princess of Wales stakes or Gold Cup at Ascot
- 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off as favourite
Will have won at least a Group 2, last ran 21-40 days ago, has won this season and ideally won last time out, look for horses aged 4+, rated 115+, who have won at 16f.
Coral Handicap (Class 2) – 5f
- No winning first or second favourite in the last 10 runnings
- 10 of the last 10 winners did NOT place last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 15 or more career runs
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won 3 or more times at 5f
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 89 or lower
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners had raced at Goodwood before
- 5 of the last 10 winners came from the highest stall or lowest 2 stalls
Avoid first and second favourites, should NOT have placed last time out, has 15 or more career runs and should have 3 or more wins at 5f.
Maiden Stakes (Class 2) – 6f
- 8 of the last 10 winners were priced 13/2 or shorter (4 favourites)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run (all of the last 5)
- ALL of the 7 winners who had already run had at least as many horses behind on their last run as in front
- ALL of the 7 winners who had already run had run in a double figure sized field
- ALL of the 7 winners who had already run raced at 6 furlongs last time out
- 6 of the 7 winners who had already run ran inside the last 4 weeks
Probably priced 13/2 or shorter, likely to have already run. If has run, will have been in a double-figure sized field and will have been at 6f and ideally ran in the last 4 weeks.
Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) – 1m (Introduced 2016)
- ALL of the 8 winners had already run at 1m
- 7 of the 8 winners raced in the last 3 weeks
- 7 of the 8 winners had won a race this season
- 6 of the 8 winners ran in a Handicap last time out (all beaten)
- 6 of the 8 winners had 6 of fewer career runs
- 6 of the 8 winners had an OR of between 83-88 (last three years 88, 87, 90)
Will have run at 1m, likely to have run in the last 3 weeks and won this season. Probably has 6 or fewer career runs and if ran in a Handicap last time out will have been beaten.
Fillies’ Handicap (Class 3) – 6f (Introduced 2021)
- ALL 3 winners raced at 6f last time out
- ALL 3 winners had an OR between 82-84
- ALL 3 favourites have NOT placed
- ALL 3 winners ran in a Handicap last time out
- 2 of the 3 winners had only 1 win this season (the other had none)
- 2 of the 3 winners had already run at Goodwood
Will have raced at 6f last time out, avoid favourites and look to horses rated near 82-84. Likely ran in a handicap last time out and preferably has run at Goodwood before.
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