Day two of Glorious Goodwood features the hugely enthralling Group 1 Sussex Stakes. Dave Young is back with all of the trends for you to follow towards the winners.
Coral Handicap (Class 2) – 12f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already been beaten that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at 12f (5 had won)
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 41 days ago
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off single-figure prices
- 8 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower
- 6 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
Will have 2 or more runs and has been beaten this season, top 3 last time out, has won at 12f, last ran between 21 and 41 days ago and if drawn in stall 5 or lower it’s a big bonus.
Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
- ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran 21 days ago or more
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at 7f (7 had won)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 3-5 career wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners were 3 or 4 years old
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 100-104
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top 3 or bottom 3 stalls
Did NOT win last time out, last ran 21+ days ago, has run at 7f and ideally will have won, is aged 3 or 4, has 3-5 careers wins, rated 100-104 and look at the top or bottom three drawn.
Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- ALL of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
- ALL of the last 10 favourites (including joints) have placed
- 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten (the two exceptions only had one run)
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners had already run at and won at 5f
Will have won a race, priced 8/1 or shorter but really look at the first two in the betting and favourites will at least place. Will have been beaten if having more than 1 run.
Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run inside the last 43 days
- 9 of the last 10 winners at least placed last time out (6 had won)
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more career wins
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won 2 or more Group races
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 119+
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 8 or fewer career runs
2 or more runs this season, last run 43 days ago or less, at least placed last time out and has won this season. Should have 4+ career wins with 2+ Group wins.
Fillies Handicap (Class 2) – 1m2f (Introduced 2016)
- 7 of the 8 winners placed top 3 last time out (6 were top 2)
- 7 of the 8 winners had already run at 10 furlongs (5 had won)
- 7 of the 8 winners had won that season
- 7 of the 8 winners had an OR of 86+
- 7 of the 8 winners ran 18 days ago or less (the last 7)
- 7 of the 8 winners ran in a Class 3 or better last time out
- 6 of the 8 winners had exactly 2 career wins
- 6 of the 8 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 5 of the 8 winners did NOT run at 10f last time out
- 5 of the 8 winners were 3yos
Ran 18 days ago or less, has won this season, already run at 10f, has an OR of 86 or higher and ran in a Class 3 or better last time out.
Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 5f (Introduced 2019)
- ALL of the 5 winners ran at 5f last time out
- ALL of the 5 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 4 of the 5 winners had won at 5f that season (the other hadn’t won)
- 3 of the 5 winners won last time out (other 2 came from the Group 2 Queen Mary)
- 3 of the 5 winners ran in a Class 2 or better last time out (last 3)
Will have run at 5f last time out and won if NOT running in Group company, comes from the top 3 in the betting, has won at 5f and preferably ran in a Class 2 or better last time out.
World Pool Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT won a race that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood (4 this season)
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a handicap last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran in single-figure fields
- 7 of the last 10 winners raced in the last 20 days
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at exactly 7f last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of between 82-87
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-3 and 9-9
Will NOT have won but will have 4+ runs this season or just 1, should have raced at Goodwood before and respect a Richard Hannon trained first string.
Trainer Spotlight – Richard Hannon has had 11 runners in the last 7 years resulting in 3 winners, 1 second, 1 third and 2 fourths. This produced a 163% ROI or £18 profit from £1 level stakes. In each race with 2 runners the first in the betting has always finished best and at least placed.
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