The second day of Glorious Goodwood features the highly-anticipated Sussex Stakes among seven races in all. Here is Dave Young’s trends guide to every single contest occurring on the Wednesday of Glorious Goodwood week.
Coral Handicap (Class 2) – 12f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already been beaten that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at 12f (5 had won)
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 41 days ago
- 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off single-figure prices
- 7 of the last 10 winners were drawn in stall 5 or lower
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 career wins (the other three were still maidens)
- 5 of the last 10 winners last ran at Ascot (3 from the King George V Stakes)
“Has at least 2 runs this season, has run and preferably won at 12f, last ran between 21 and 41 days ago. Probably placed Top 3 last time out, likely to be single-figure priced and respect those drawn in stall 5 or lower.”
Oak Tree Stakes (Group 3) – 7f
- ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran 21 days ago or more
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 3-5 career wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners were 3 or 4 years old
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at 7f (6 had won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR between 100-104
- 6 of the last 10 winners were drawn in the top 3 or bottom 3 stalls
“Did NOT win last time out, last ran 21+ days ago, is aged 3 or 4, has 3-5 careers wins, rated 100-104, preferably has won at 7f and look to the top or bottom three drawn runners.”
Molecomb Stakes (Group 3) – 5f
- ALL of the last 10 favourites (including joints) have placed
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already won a race
- 9 of the last 10 winners were priced 8/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners had been beaten (the two exceptions only had one run)
- 7 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already run at and won at 5f
“The favourite will at least place, should have won a race and probably has been beaten unless only once raced. Likely to be priced 8/1 or shorter and has won at 5f.”
Qatar Sussex Stakes (Group 1) – 1m
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 2 or more runs that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run inside the last 43 days
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more career wins
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won 2 or more Group races
- 8 of the last 10 winners at least placed last time out (5 had won)
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the first two in the betting
- 8 of the last 10 winners had an OR of 119+
- 7 of the last 10 winners had already won a Group 1
- 7 of the last 10 winners had 8 or fewer career runs (last 6 winners)
“Has 2 or more runs this season, has won this season and ran in the last 43 days. Has 4 or more career wins, has won 2 or more Group races and most likely has won a Group 1.”
Fillies Handicap (Class 2) – 1m2f
(Introduced 2016)
- 8 of the 9 winners placed top 3 last time out (6 were top 2)
- 8 of the 9 winners had already run at 10 furlongs (6 had won)
- 8 of the 9 winners had an OR of 86+
- 8 of the 9 winners ran in a Class 3 or better last time out
- 7 of the 9 winners had won that season
- 7 of the 9 winners ran 18 days ago or less
- 7 of the 9 winners had exactly 2 career wins
- 6 of the 9 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 6 of the 9 winners did NOT run at 10f last time out
“Placed top 3 last time out, has run at and ideally won at 10f, holds an OR of 86+ and last ran in a Class 3 or better. Should have won this season and has exactly 2 career wins.”
Alice Keppel Fillies’ Conditions Stakes (Class 2) – 5f
(Introduced 2019)
- ALL of the 6 winners ran at 5f last time out
- ALL of the 6 winners came from the top 3 in the betting
- 5 of the 6 winners had won at 5f that season (the other hadn’t won)
- 4 of the 6 winners won last time out (other 2 came from the Group 2 Queen Mary)
“Will have run at 5f last time out and won if NOT running in Group company, comes from the top 3 in the betting. Probably has won at least 50% of their races.”
World Pool Handicap (Class 3) – 7f
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT won a race that season
- 9 of the last 10 winners had already run at Goodwood (4 this season)
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in a handicap last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran in single-figure fields
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at exactly 7f last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had an OR of between 84-90
- 7 of the last 10 winners carried between 9-3 and 9-9
“Won’t have won but likely to have 4 or more runs this season. Has already run at Goodwood and bonus if ran there this season. Ran in a handicap last time out.”
Trainer Spotlight
Richard Hannon has had 13 runners in the last 8 years resulting in 3 winners, 1 second, 1 third and 2 fourths. This produced a 123% ROI or £16 profit from £1 level stakes.
In races with 2 runners, the first in the betting has finished best and at least placed in 4 of the 5 instances.
2024 is the only year he did not have at least 1 Goodwood Festival winner so I believe this is still worth noting.