The domination of jumps racing by our Irish counterparts in the biggest races has pervaded National Hunt racing for a number of years. This has also been the case with the Grand National, with five of the last seven winners hailing from across the Irish Sea. Once again, they have a wealth of candidates to claim the prize, and we have profiled the top four of those below.
I Am Maximus
Despite sending out some high profile candidates in recent years, Willie Mullins still only has a single Grand National winner to his name, that being courtesy of Hedgehunter way back in 2005. However, there is every chance I Am Maximus will be his best chance of claiming a second running of the race for Closutton.
He won the Irish National in astonishing circumstances last season, his charge being off the bridle early but finding outstanding reserves of stamina. That surely bodes well for this marathon trip and he cruised to success in his warm-up in the Grade 3 Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, conceding 12lb to last season’s runner-up Vanillier, who only gets 8lb from him here.
His backers will have to contend with some nervous moments in the jumping department, as though he has never fallen, he can jump lopsidedly and awkwardly. Combine that with his tendency to get behind in his races, and he may leave himself too much work to do.
Vanillier
His runner-up finish in this last year saw him come from miles off the pace, as after 20 of the 30 fences, Vanillier was second last of those still standing. He fairly flew home, narrowing the gap on Corach Rambler to just 2½ lengths by the line from over ten lengths still between them at the last.
Some questioned whether jockey Sean Flanagan left him too much to do, but I don’t subscribe to that view. More simply, it looked as though Vanillier simply could not quite go the pace for most of the race, ultimately doing his best work when most had emptied their reserves. If the National remained a 4½-mile race, he would be more ideally suited.
Many may believe that softer ground will bring him into the race more, but his record on a wetter surface is winless since a maiden hurdle victory in November 2020. He is, however, much better off at the weights with last year’s winner and his whole campaign has been geared around a fair rating for going one better in the National.
Grand National Trends 2024 – All the vital stats for Aintree marathon
There have been many changes to the Grand National over many years, but this renewal will see the field size cut from 40 to 34 which shouldn’t have a huge impact in finding the winner but both Auroras Encore (2013) & Minella Times (2021) were number 35 winners. I’m going to look at the last…
Mon 08 Apr 2024Meetingofthewaters
In terms of market support, few have been backed down as much as Meetingofthewaters. Another for JP McManus and Willie Mullins, there has been a sustained gamble on the seven-year-old, who brings a similar profile as 2022 winner Noble Yeats in being potentially unexposed and runs off the same rating of 147.
That said, he has been hiding in plain sight in comparison to the former National hero, hence he is a fifth of the 50/1 price Noble Yeats started at two years ago. Though he has had just six chase starts, he won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown after Christmas, while he was also third in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last month.
A heavy ground staying handicap may not be the best prep for this given it was only four weeks ago, but he stayed the full distance and clearly will not have ground worries. He provides ample support to I Am Maximus for Mullins’ team and is officially 2lb well-in for that Cheltenham effort.
Mr Incredible
Another Mullins runner and another who has seen his odds plummet in recent days. He was available at 20/1 at best odds within the last fortnight, but can no longer be found anywhere at longer than 12/1.
He arrived at Aintree last year off the back of a fast-finishing third in the Kim Muir, which saw him go off a quietly fancied 14/1 chance. He unseated slightly unfortunately at the Canal Turn when still in contention then, but defied a 336-day layoff to finish a game second in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter just after the Cheltenham Festival had concluded.
He will go up 1lb in future and retains serious staying potential aged eight, so can be expected to be thereabouts, albeit there may be some who are better handicapped given he comes into this 5lb higher than last season.
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