Grand National Meeting Day 1 Trends 2026

The Grand National only brings to a conclusion a superb three days of racing at Aintree. There are Grade 1s aplenty, as well as a number of top-class handicaps to get stuck into.

Dave Young has analysed the trends for every race on day one of the Grand National meeting. You can find his guides below to help you towards some Aintree winners.

Manifesto Novices’ Chase

ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
ALL of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 68 days ago
9 of the last 10 winners had exactly 2 wins that season
9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 150 or higher (others were 147 & 148)
8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won at Aintree before
6 of the last 10 winners were aged 6
5 of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham

Bonus – Willie Mullins has 2 wins from 3 runners in the last 10 renewals

Didn’t win last time out, isn’t the favourite and last ran between 21 and 68 days ago. Probably has 2 wins this season and should have 4 or more runs this season.

Anniversary 4-Y-O Novices Hurdle

8 of the last 10 winners had at least 2 wins that season
8 of the last 10 winners ran at Cheltenham last time out (7 at The Festival)
8 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded race
8 of the last 10 winners had raced at 2m1f
8 of the last 10 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter
7 of the last 10 winners were the 1^st or 2^nd favourite
6 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson

Bonus – The 2 winners not sent off 4/1 or shorter were sent off at 14/1 & 16/1

Probably has 2 wins this season, last ran at Cheltenham, has won a Graded race, has run at 2m1f before and is sent off 4/1 or shorter.

Aintree Bowl

ALL of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
ALL of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 1
9 of the last 10 winners had won at 3m or further
8 of the last 10 winners had won more than one Grade 1
8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 4/1or shorter
7 of the last 10 winners were the favourite
7 of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham (6 in the Gold Cup)

Bonus – The two runners who unseated last time out both won

Did NOT win last time out, has won a Grade 1 and preferably multiple. Has won at 3m or further and is sent off 4/1 or shorter and respect runners from the Gold Cup.

Aintree Hurdle

ALL of the last 10 winners were sent off 5/1 or shorter
ALL of the last 10 winners came from the first 3 in the betting
ALL of the last 10 winners were multiple Grade 1 winners
9 of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham
9 of the last 10 winners had 3 or more runs that season
9 of the last 10 winners had NOT won at Aintree
8 of the last 10 winners had no more than 2 wins that season
7 of the last 10 winners were trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson
6 of the last 10 winners had won at 2m4f or further

Bonus – Mares are 3 from 9 since 2016 but had the first 4 home last season

Will come from the first three in the betting and is already a multiple Grade 1 winner. Last ran at Cheltenham with 3 or more runs this season.

Rose Paterson Open Hunters Chase

9 of the last 10 winners ran inside the last 32 days
8 of the last 10 winners were 9 or older (9yo’s are profitable blind)
8 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 132 or higher
8 of the last 10 winners had won over 3 miles or further
6 of the last 10 winners placed 1^st or 2^nd last time out (LTO winners profitable blind)
6 of the last 10 winners were 1^st or 2^nd favourite

Bonus – No winner older than 9 from the last 5 renewals

Last ran 32 days ago or less, holds an OR of at least 132 and has won over 3 miles or further in their career. Respect 9-year-olds.

Red Rum Handicap Chase

9 of the last 10 winners were sent off 12/1 or shorter
9 of the last 10 winners had 0 or 1 win this season
9 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 139 or lower
9 of the last 10 winners did NOT last run at Cheltenham
9 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners carried 10-10 or less
8 of the last 10 winners had 5 or more runs that season

Bonus – Backing runners carrying 10-10 or less and rated 139 or lower who did not win or run at Cheltenham last time out with no more than 1 win this season finds 7 of the last 10 winners and shows a 188% ROI to SP and 313% to Betfair SP

Has no more than 1 win this season, didn’t not win last time out and did not run at Cheltenham, carrying 10-10 or less and rated 139 or lower.

Nickel Coin Mares NH Flat Race

ALL of the last 10 winners had either 1 or 2 wins that season
ALL of the last 10 winners came from the Top 6 in the betting
9 of the last 10 winners did NOT run in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham
9 of the last 10 winners had 2 to 4 runs that season
8 of the last 10 winners were 5 years old
6 of the last 10 winners won last time out

Bonus – No trainer has more than one win in the last 10 renewals, but Alan King has 2 wins from the last 11 renewals

Has 1 or 2 wins this season, comes from the Top 6 in the betting, did NOT run in the Champion Bumper and has 2 to 4 runs this season. Respect 5-year-olds.