The second day of the Grand National meeting includes the Grade 1 Melling Chase among seven in all. The day before the big race itself can be a great time for punters to win over the bookies.
Dave Young has gone through all of the races on day two at Aintree’s meeting and given you all of the key trends worth following.
Mildmay Novices’ Chase
- ALL of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out (2nd place LTO is profitable blind)
- ALL of the last 10 winners were sent off 11/2 or shorter
- ALL of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham (The Festival)
- 9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 153 or higher
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won a Graded race before now
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off 3/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 7 or 8
- 8 of the last 10 winners were having their first run at Aintree
- 7 of the last 10 winners were sent off favourite
Bonus – Runners who had not raced at 2m7f or further before now are 4 from 14 (29%) while those who had are 6 from 53 (11%)
Placed top 2 last time out at the Cheltenham Festival, will be sent off no bigger than 11/2 and is probably the favourite.
Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle
- ALL of the last 10 winners had either 0 or 2 wins that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11-05
- 9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 137 or lower
- 9 of the last 10 winners had NOT won at Aintree (5 hadn’t run here)
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 19 and 31 days ago
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at Cheltenham last time out
Bonus – Jack Kennedy has 2 wins from 4 rides and shows a £28 profit to £1 level stakes
Has 0 or 2 wins this season, carries no more than 11-05 and holds an OR no higher than 137. Last ran 19 to 31 days ago but look away from Cheltenham last time out runners.
Top Novices’ Hurdle
- ALL of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 8 of the last 10 winners had either 3 or 4 runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had either 2 or 3 wins that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham (7 in The Supreme)
- 7 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
Bonus – Backing all Cheltenham last time out runners is profitable blind (20% ROI)
Has been beaten this season, did not win last time out, has 3 or 4 runs this season, 2 or 3 wins this season and probably last ran in the Supreme.
Melling Chase
- ALL of the last 10 winners had been beaten that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners had between 3 and 5 runs that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree before now (Only 3 had won)
- ALL of the last 10 winners held an OR of at least 161
- 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out (5 came second LTO)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off 4/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won a Grade 1 before now
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran at Cheltenham (5 in the Champion Chase)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 7 or 8
- 8 of the last 10 winners had won at 2m4f or further before now
- 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off as the favourite
Bonus – The 2 winners not priced 4/1 or shorter were sent off 10/1 and 11/1
Has been beaten this season and probably beaten last time out. Has 3 to 5 runs this season, has been to Aintree before and holds an OR of 161 or higher.
Topham Chase
- ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite (Only favourite this century was in 08)
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners were NOT wearing any headgear (All the last 8 winners)
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried no more than 11-02
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won over 2m7f or further
- 7 of the last 10 winners held an OR no higher than 145
- 7 of the last 10 winners were NOT Irish trained
Bonus – Willie Mullins is the only Irish trainer to be successful in this race since 2005
Is NOT the favourite, has 4 or more runs this season, isn’t wearing headgear, is carrying no more than 11-02, has not won over 2m7f or further and is rated no higher than 145.
Sefton Novices’ Hurdle
- ALL of the last 10 winners had either 2 or 3 wins that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners last ran between 20 and 54 days ago
- ALL of the last 10 winners were NOT sent off between 9/2 and 8/1
- 8 of the last 10 winners placed Top 3 last time out (4 won LTO)
- 7 of the last 10 winners were 6-year-olds
Bonus – Lucinda Russell has 2 wins from 5 runners showing a £79 profit to £1 level stakes
Has 2 or 3 wins this season, last ran between 20 and 54 days ago, is NOT sent off between 9/2 or 8/1 and placed top 3 last time out.
Lydiate Handicap Hurdle
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 13 and 35 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners carried 11-02 or less
- 9 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 137 or lower
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won over further than 16.5 furlongs
- 8 of the last 10 winners had no more than 9 hurdle runs
- 8 of the last 10 winners were ridden by claiming conditional jockeys
- 8 of the last 10 winners did NOT win last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners had no more than 1 win that season
Bonus – 6 of the last 10 winners had their furthest win at exactly 16.5 furlongs (72% ROI)
Last ran between 13 and 35 days ago, carrying 11-02 or less with an OR of 137 or lower. Hasn’t won over further than 16.5f, has 9 or fewer hurdle runs, ridden by a claiming jockey and did NOT win last time out.