The third day at Aintree contains the most recognisable horse race in the world. The 2026 Grand National is fast approaching, just as the first famous fence will be to the 34 runners.
Our tipster Dave Young has already provided the key trends for days one and two. Here are his key trends and stats to follow.
Bridle Road Handicap Hurdle
- NONE of the last 10 winners finished second last time out
- NONE of the last 10 winners sported any headgear
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 6 or 7
- 8 of the last 10 winners came from the Top 5 in the betting (favourites profitable blind)
- 8 of the last 10 winners had NOT won at 2m6f or further
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried between 10-12 and 11-08
Bonus – No winner in the last decade had an even number of wins that season
Not in headgear, did NOT finish second last time out. Likely to be aged 6 or 7, from the Top 5 in the betting, hasn’t won at 2m6f or further and carrying 10-12 to 11-08.
Mersey Novices Hurdle
- 9 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out (the other was 3rd)
- 9 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 35 days ago
- 9 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 5/1 or shorter
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more wins that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at 19f to 21f
- 7 of the last 10 winners had NOT already won a Grade 1
- 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off as the favourite
Bonus – The last 4 winners were trained by Gordon Elliott
Place Top 2 last time out, last ran between 21 and 35 days ago and is sent off 5/1 or shorter. Has 4 or more runs this season and 2 or more wins this season and has already raced at 19f to 21f.
William Hill Handicap Chase
- 9 of the last 10 winners had no more than 3 wins over fences
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 21 and 31 days ago
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried between 10-09 and 11-07
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at Aintree before (only 2 had won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners did NOT place Top 3 last time out
- 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8
- 7 of the last 10 winners were not from the Top 3 in the betting
Bonus – Tom Lacey is the only trainer with multiple winners (3) in the last 10 renewals
No more than 3 wins over fences, has 4 or more runs this season, last ran between 21 and 31 days ago and carrying between 10-09 and 11-07.
Liverpool Hurdle
- ALL of the last 10 winners held an OR of at least 150
- 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least a Grade 2
- 8 of the last 10 winners had no more than 1 win that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had raced at Aintree before (4 had won)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 7 or 8
- 7 of the last 10 winners last raced at Cheltenham (just 3 from the stayers’ hurdle)
Bonus – 2 of the 3 winners in headgear were Sire Du Berlais who ran in blinkers
At least an OR of 150, has won at least a Grade 2 and probably has no more than 1 win this season. Has run at Aintree before and is aged 7 or 8.
Grand National
- ALL of the last 10 winners had NOT fallen in their careers
- NONE of the last 10 winners were rated between151 and 158
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged either 8 or 9
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 1 or 2 wins that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 3 or 4 runs that season (other 2 had 7)
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 24 and 49 days ago
- 7 of the last 10 winners had run at 3m5f or further
- 7 of the last 10 winners were Irish trained
- 6 of the last 10 winners won last time out (33% ROI)
Bonus – No winner older than 9 from the last 10 renewals but the prior 5 were aged 10 or 11
Has no fallen in their career, isn’t rated 151 to 158. Likely to be aged 8 or 9 with 3 or 4 runs this season,1 or 2 wins this season and last ran between 24 and 49 days ago.
Maghull Novices Chase
- ALL of the last 10 winners had 4 or more runs that season
- ALL of the last 10 winners came from the Top 3 in the betting
- ALL of the last 10 winners were Irish trained or by Nicky Henderson or Paul Nicholls
- 9 of the last 10 winners had 2 or more wins that season
- 8 of the last 10 winners held an OR of 150 or higher
- 8 of the last 10 winners last ran between 20 and 42 days ago
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged either 6 or 7
- 7 of the last 10 winners placed Top 2 last time out (5 won)
- 7 of the last 10 winners had NOT won over further than 2m1f
Bonus – The 5 winners who came from Cheltenham last ran in the Arkle
Has 4 or more runs, Irish trained or N Henderson or P Nicholls. Has 2 or more wins this season, holds an OR of 150 or higher, last ran 20 to 42 days ago and is aged 6 or 7.
Champion Standard Open NHF Race
- 9 of the last 10 winners did NOT run at Cheltenham
- 8 of the last 10 winners were aged 5 (although 5 and 6yo’s both run at a 7% strike-rate)
- 8 of the last 10 winners were NOT the favourite
- 8 of the last 10 winners had 2 or 3 runs that season
- 7 of the last 10 winners won last time out (profitable blind – 9% ROI)
- 7 of the last 10 winners last ran 48 days or longer ago
Bonus – Paul Nicholls has as many winners from the last 10 as Willie Mullins from just one more runner
Did NOT run at Cheltenham, likely to be aged 5 but 6 is OK. Is probably NOT the favourite but has 2 or 3 runs this season and likely won last time out.