The most valuable jumps run in Europe, the Grand National is a race which reaches far beyond the regular racegoer, and it’s been a household event that Brits have enjoyed since 1839.
The race has changed over the years with safety at the forefront, so I’ve looked at all runnings this century but also in comparison to the last 9 renewals which have been run at the new trip of 4m 2½f. The field size was also reduced for 2024 which will have a longer-term impact on these trends, but for now, let’s see if we can work out what it typically takes to find the Grand National winner.
KEY TRENDS
- Most likely to be aged 8 or 9
- Favourites are profitable to back blind
- Respect runners with an OR of 146 to 150 but likely to be even higher rated now
- Most winners carrying less than 11 stone, but this could be turning trend
- Expected to have last run 16 to 60 days ago & respect last time out winners
- Will NOT have run at Aintree more than twice & has NOT run in the Grand National before
- Has 3 or 4 runs this season
- Is NOT wearing headgear
- BONUS: Respect runners with a jockey who has ridden but not won with the horse before
Focussed Trends
AGE
- 7yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/9 (11%)
- 8yo – 7/25 (28%) & 5/9 (56%)
- 9yo – 7/25 (28%) & 3/9 (33%)
- 10yo – 5/25 (20%) & 0/9 (0%)
- 11yo – 4/25 (16%) & 0/9 (0%)
- 12yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/9 (0%)
11-year-olds are the only age profitable to back blind this century however there has been no winner aged older than 9 since 2015 although the three renewals before that were all won by 11-year-olds.
In the last 9 renewals it’s 8-year-olds that show a small profit blind and they also have the most wins and highest win strike-rate.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/25 (24%) & 3/9 (33%)
- First 5 in the betting 11/25 (44%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Priced 12/1 or shorter – 10/25 (40%) & 5/9 (56%)
Three winning favourites from the last nine show a 100% ROI to SP and while you’d only increase the profit by £1 if you backed all runners from the Top 5 in the market you would have found another three winners.
This century favourites are still profitable to back blind but it’s thanks to the last 9 renewals that this is true.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 146 and 150 – 8/25 (32%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Winners carrying less than 11 stone – 16/25 (64%) & 6/9 (67%)
There’s been a shift with the class horses taking this contest and even with the winners being more prolific in recent years with an OR of 146 to 150 the last two winners were rated 159 and 163 respectively. Last years’ first three home were rated 163, 167 and 163, the year before were rated 159, 157 and 159. This is well worth noting as while the trends above will suggest carrying less than 11 stone would be preferable, the first 3 home for the last two years were all carrying 11 stone 4 lbs or more.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Top 5 last time out – 19/25 (76%) % 8/9 (89%)
- Last ran 16-60 days ago – 23/25 (96%) & 7/9 (78%)
- Handicap last time out – 15/25 (60%) & 4/9 (44%)
There’s been a shift in the type of horse to land the modern Grand National so there are twice as many winners who won last time out in the last 9 renewals than compared to this century.
Most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days ago but fewer winners last ran in a Handicap however the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham has reverted to being a handicap so that might be something to consider.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree – 17/25 (68%) & 4/9 (44%)
- Winners who had RUN at Aintree 1 or 2 times – 13/17 (76%) & 4/4 (100%)
Aintree course form isn’t as important as it once was and all of the last 9 winners had not been to Aintree more than twice with 5 not having run here at all.
FORM
- Had RUN at 3 miles 5 furlongs or further – 17/25 (68%) & 6/9 (67%)
- 3 or 4 runs this season – 13/25 (52%) & 7/9 (78%)
- 4 or more runs in the last 365 days – 22/25 (88%) & 7/9 (78%)
- Had NOT run in the Grand National before – 19/25 (76%) & 8/9 (89%)
Looking at the form markers above you can’t use them in isolation to find a profit-making metric but it will help find the majority of winners.
There is a change in the trend for winners having 3 or 4 runs this season as a box to be ticked though and you’d rather back a runner who hadn’t run in the Grand National before than a horse who has been here and tried. I’d forgive previous winners thanks to Tiger Roll but he’s the exception to many rules.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 21/25 (84%) & 6/9 (67%)
The 4 winners this century who were wearing headgear sported either cheek-pieces or blinkers.
Noble Yeats won at 50/1 in first time cheek-pieces so he’s going to skew the profit for those in first time cheek-pieces for a while as we’ve only had 16 horses try. Probably best to assume this isn’t the race to be trying new things.
JOCKEY
- Jockey has won on the horse before – 16/25 (64%) & 6/9 (67%)
- Jockey has ridden but NOT won on the horse before – 6/25 (24%) & 3/9 (33%)
You’d expect Grand National winners to have form under their jockey and most winners had won with them before. It’s interesting to see that runners who had been partnered by their jockey but not to success before show a 65% ROI to SP in the last 9 years and 22% ROI to SP this century. This might be a bonus trend to look for and would have found last years 33/1 winner.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2025 – Nick Rockett (IRE)
- 2024 – I Am Maximus (FR)
- 2023 – Corach Rambler (IRE)
- 2022 – Noble Yeats (IRE)
- 2021 – Minella Times (IRE)
- 2019 – Tiger Roll (IRE)
- 2018 – Tiger Roll (IRE)
- 2017 – One For Arthur (IRE)
- 2016 – Rule The World (GB)
- 2015 – Many Clouds (IRE)
- 2014 – Pineau De Re (FR)
- 2013 – Auroras Encore (IRE)
- 2012 – Neptune Collonges (FR)
- 2011 – Ballabriggs (IRE)
- 2010 – Dont Push It (IRE)
- 2009 – Mon Mome (FR)
- 2008 – Comply Or Die (IRE)
- 2007 – Silver Birch (IRE)
- 2006 – Numbersixvalverde (IRE)
- 2005 – Hedgehunter (IRE)
- 2004 – Amberleigh House (IRE)
- 2003 – Montys Pass (IRE)
- 2002 – Bindaree (IRE)
- 2001 – Red Marauder (GB)
- 2000 – Papillon (IRE)