Home / News / Tipster Columns / Haydock Grand National Trial Trends 2026 – How Aintree trial winner can be found at Haydock

    Tipster Columns

    Haydock Grand National Trial Trends 2026 - How Aintree trial winner can be found at Haydock

    David Young
    David Young
    February 4, 2026
    Haydock Grand National Trial Trends 2026 - How Aintree trial winner can be found at Haydock

    Neptune Collonges was a neck second in this race before winning the Grand National proper at Aintree at 33/1 for Paul Nicholls and Daryl Jacob. No winner of this race this century has done the double.

    Dave Young looks at all runnings this century and the last decade to see what’s changing, what’s stayed the same, and more importantly; what it takes to find the winner.

    • Likely to be aged 8 to 10-years-old
    • Respect runners sent off between 13/2 and 8/1
    • Look to those with an OR of 143 to 149
    • Look to those carrying 11-4 or more
    • Ideally last ran between 31 and 60 days ago
    • Winning course form is a positive but just running here isn’t
    • Should have 2-4 wins over fences

    AGE

    • 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
    • 8yo – 6/25 (24%) & 4/10 (40%)
    • 9yo – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • 10yo – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • 11yo – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (10%)

    9-year-olds and 11-year-olds are profitable to back blind this century and the former have the best strike rate too. 7-year-olds are not profitable to back blind, but they do have the highest place strike rate.

    In the last decade it’s 8 and 10-year-olds who are profitable to back blind so there’s movement in the metrics across both periods measured.

    PRICE

    • Favourites – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
    • Priced 13/2 to 8/1 – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
    • 5th in the market at SP – 4/25 (16%) & 1/10 (0%)

    Favourites are small loss makers to follow blind this century but hold the joint second highest win rate only bettered by horses who were sent off 5th rank in the market at SP. They show a £19.50 profit blind from 21 qualifiers.

    This century, you could have back every runner priced between 13/2 and 8/1 at SP to show a near 25% ROI and it’s also been profitable to back all runners sent off 14/1 and 20/1 blind but at a 15% ROI.

    In the last decade half of the winners were sent off 13/2 to 8/1 and this shows a 156% ROI. Favourites cover themselves and the mention of 5th favourites at SP doesn’t carry into the last decade but 6th in the better are profitable to back blind with over a 100% ROI.

    RATINGS AND WEIGHT

    • Winners with an OR between 143 and 149 – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
    • Winners carrying 11-4 or more – 9/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)

    Backing runners with an OR of 143 to 149 shows a 63% ROI to SP alone this century and 89% in the last decade.

    Adding in the measure for horses carrying 11-4 and with an OR between 143 and 149 it brings the last decade ROI up to 234% with 5 of the 6 winners in that rating band still found and improves the century ROI to 85% finding 7 of the 11 who were inside that rating band.

    LAST TIME OUT

    • Won last time out – 11/25 (44%) & 3/10 (30%)
    • Last ran 31-60 days ago – 16/25 (64%) & 6/10 (60%)

    Last time out winners are profitable to back blind this century showing a 41% ROI. Backing all runners who last ran 31 to 60 days ago is also profitable blind but at a lower ROI. If you combined the two measures for this century though you’d have found 6 winners but be showing a 57% ROI.

    In the last decade it’s not profitable to back last time out winners blind it’s a much higher ROI for runners who last ran between 31 and 60 days ago with a 41% ROI. Combining the measures in the last decade would result in a -25% ROI so this is changing, or a long-term money maker rather than a short term one.

    COURSE FORM

    • Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 15/25 (60%) & 5/10 (50%)
    • Winners who had WON at Haydock – 9/15 (60%) & 4/5 (80%)

    I’d always love a horse to be a course winner but it’s not essential here although you’d certainly say of late, you’d want a previous course winner over just a previous course runner.

    CAREER FORM

    • Winners who had 10 or more RUNS over fences – 14/24 (59%) & 5/10 (50%)
    • Winners who had 2-4 WINS over fences – 23/25 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)

    This century backing horses with 2-4 wins over fences (excluding France) show a 20% ROI and account for 92% of the winners. Coupling that with having 10 or more chase starts (excluding France) increase the ROI at SP to 29%. It’s not profitable this century to just backing runners with 10 or more chase starts (excluding France)

    Runners having 10 or more runs over fences (excluding France) before now are profitable to back blind in the last decade with a 30% ROI. If you couple that with having 2-4 wins over fences (excluding France) too you still find all 5 winners in the last decade but the ROI increases to 96%. It’s a 47% ROI just backing all runners with 2-4 chase wins too, so that’s a very important box to tick.

    HEADGEAR

    • Winners who did NOT wear headgear or tongue-tie – 19/25 (76%) & 4/10 (40%)

    Most winners do NOT sport headgear, and most do NOT wear a tongue-tie either. Horses without either have taken 19 renewals this century and show a 21% ROI. This winning percentage in the last decade almost halves for winner without headgear or a tongue-tie but it’s still profitable to back blind with a 36% ROI to SP. It does mean though that most winners in the last decade do wear headgear or tongue tie.