Another major race in the York Ebor Festival and another race with Aidan O’Brien on the recent honours roll. Strictly for 3-year-olds, this Group 2 appears to be the intended target for recent Gordon Stakes winner Merchant.
I’ve looked at all the winners this century and against the last decade to see if we can profile what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Slight preference to lower drawn horse but NOT horses from stall 1
- Respect favourites who are sent off 6/4 or shorter
- Runners who placed second last time out outperform last time out winners
- Look to horses who last ran between 31 and 60 days ago
- Should have raced at 12 furlongs but is not expected to have won at 12 furlongs
- More recently desirable to have already been a Group race winner
Focussed Trends
STALLS
- NOT drawn in stall 1 – 25/25 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
Draw isn’t particularly helpful in whittling down this field but, there hasn’t been a winner from stall 1 this century but two has been the winning-most stall, followed by stall three.
PRICE
- Favourites – 10/25 (40%) & 5/10 (50%)
- SP of 6/4 or lower – 8/25 (32%) & 4/10 (40%)
Backing favourites alone has shown a small loss this century and a small profit in the last decade. 80% of those winning favourites were sent off 6/4 or shorter and backing those blind would show a profit across both periods. Shorties are worth siding with it seems.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with highest OR in the field – 8/25 (32%) & 5/10 (50%)
Simply following the top-rated runner would show around a negative 3% ROI this century but leaps up to a near 90% positive ROI in the last decade. Only one of the last four top-rated runners has won though, which was last year’s 5/4 favourite. So shorter term, it’s been a loss maker.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 8/25 (32%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Second last time out – 7/25 (28%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran in the last 31-60 days – 14/25 (56%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Last ran in the Irish Derby – 7/25 (36%) & 5/10 (50%)
During 2015 to 2018, all four winners last ran in the Irish Derby. The same was true of last years’ winner too.
Last time out winners are hefty loss makers and you’d be better off following horses who placed second last time out.
Most winners last ran between 31 and 60 days ago which has been a profitable trend to follow on its own with a 25% ROI this century and 35% in the last decade.
FORM
- Had won 50% or more of their races that season – 11/25 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Previous Group race winner – 8/25 (32%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Had RUN at 12 furlongs – 21/25 (84%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had WON at 12 furlongs – 7/21 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
Just under half of winners had won 50% or more of their races that season and while only a third of winners this century had a previous Group win to their name, almost two-thirds of winners in the last decade could tick that box.
Most winners will have at least run at 12 furlongs, but most winners will NOT have won at 12 furlongs.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century)
- 2024 – Los Angeles (IRE)
- 2023 – Continuous (JPN)
- 2022 – Deauville Legend (IRE)
- 2021 – Yibir (GB)
- 2020 – Pyledriver (GB)
- 2019 – Logician (GB)
- 2018 – Old Persian (GB)
- 2017 – Cracksman (GB)
- 2016 – Idaho (IRE)
- 2015 – Storm The Stars (USA)
- 2014 – Postponed (IRE)
- 2013 – Telescope (IRE)
- 2012 – Thought Worthy (USA)
- 2011 – Sea Moon (GB)
- 2010 – Rewilding (GB)
- 2009 – Monitor Closely (IRE)
- 2008 – Centennial (IRE)
- 2007 – Lucarno (USA)
- 2006 – Youmzain (IRE)
- 2005 – Hard Top (IRE)
- 2004 – Rule Of Law (USA)
- 2003 – Powerscourt (GB)
- 2002 – Bandari (IRE)
- 2001 – Milan (GB)
- 2000 – Air Marshall (IRE)