This 3-mile Premier Handicap has been caught by the frost on a few occasions (2010, 2011 & 2013) but it’s a well targeted race and I’ve looked at all running’s this century to decipher what it typically takes to land this prize.
KEY TRENDS
- Preference goes to runners aged 9 or older
- Look to runners with an SP between 7/1 and 40/1
- Has failed to complete in their career
- Has 10 or more career chase starts & 2-3 chase wins
- Exactly 2 runs this season but has not won
- Has run at Doncaster but preferably hasn’t won here before
- Respect runners who placed second last time out and ran at either Doncaster or Wetherby
- Carries between 10-06 and 11-02 and rated between 144-146
FOCUSED TRENDS
AGE
- 6yo – 1/23 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 5/23 (22%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 8yo – 4/23 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 9yo – 7/23 (30%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 10yo – 5/23 (22%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 11yo – 0/23 (0%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 12yo – 1/23 (4%) & 1/10 (10%)
A big spread across the ages of winners of this contest but it’s 6, 7, 10 and 12-year-olds who are profitable to follow blind this century.
In the last decade it’s the older duo who are still profitable to back blind but thanks to a couple of big-priced winners. Still, I’d prefer to follow a runner aged 9 or older than 8 or younger.
PRICE
- 13/2 to 12/1 – 10/23 (43%) & 6/10 (60%)
- 14/1 to 40/1 – 8/23 (35%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Top 3 in the market – 9/23 (39%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Favourite – 3/23 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
This century favourites are loss makers to follow blind and second favourites just cover themselves with a £0 P/L. Big priced runners are to the fore though, with all runners 14/1 to 40/1 being profitable to follow blind showing a £60 profit but that profit has been made in the last 10 years.
In the last decade there has been no winning favourite (last was 11 years ago) and only 2 winners have come from the Top 3 in the market. Most winners were priced between 13/2 and 12/1 with 21 horses priced shorter all beaten. It shows a £2 profit backing all runners blind in this bracket, but it shows £61 profit if you backed all runners priced 14/1 and 40/1.
CAREER FORM
- Has failed to complete in career – 19/23 (83%) & 10/10 (100%)
- 2-3 chase wins – 12/23 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
- More than 9 chase runs – 12/23 (52%) & 8/10 (80%)
Just over half of this century’s winners had 10 or more chase starts and following those blind is profitable showing a 14% ROI to SP alone. You can more than double this ROI to 32% by filtering qualifiers by having an SP of 7/1 to 40/1 which keeps all 12 winners. Moving this measure to the last decade finds 8 of the 10 winners and shows an ROI of 116% but even without the price window the ROI is 96% for just following all runners with 10 or more chase runs.
If we look at the number of chase wins then we can bring the system even higher in by only selecting horses with 2 or 3 chase wins. This brings the last decade up to 177% ROI and 118% this century.
SEASON FORM
- Ran more than once this season – 21/23 (91%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran exactly twice this season – 8/23 (35%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Has NOT won this season – 15/23 (65%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners of this raced has NOT won this season and this century it’s profitable for a 33% ROI to back these qualifiers blind. Looking at the last decade, the ROI for these qualifiers is 90%.
Most winners will have run more than once this season and the optimum seems to be two season runs prior to this with a 152% ROI in the last decade and 85% this century.
COURSE FORM (Removed the 2006 and 2007 renewals as held at Southwell)
- Has RUN at Doncaster – 12/21 (57%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Has WON at Doncaster – 6/12 (50%) & 3/7 (43%)
Just over half of the winners had been to Doncaster but they’re profitable to back blind with a 29% ROI to SP alone.
Just looking at previous course winners though finds 6 of the 12 winners who had been here but the ROI drops to -26%. Conversely, if you followed runners who had been here before but not won here before the 6 winners show an ROI of 79%. The same patterns are true for the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 4/23 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Second – 7/23 (30%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Ran between 16 and 60 Days Ago – 20/23 (87%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Ran at Doncaster, Cheltenham or Wetherby – 13/23 (57%) & 4/10 (40%)
Last time out winners are not very prolific and are loss makers to back blind. Horses who placed second last time out are profitable to back blind.
Most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days ago but they’re not profitable to back blind this century. The trio who fall outside that window last ran between 61 and 90 days ago and backing all those qualifiers is profitable to back blind. Although in the last decade it’s profitable to back all runners who last ran between 16 and 90 days ago because of the SP of winners.
Many winners last ran at Doncaster, Cheltenham or Wetherby with all qualifiers from each individual track profitable to back blind but it’s Wetherby with a 300% that catches the eye. In the last decade it’s been Doncaster with 4 winners and Wetherby with 2 winners that show decent profits if backing blind.
OFFICAL RATING
- Rated between 144 and 151 – 6/23 (26%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Rated between 144 and 146 – 4/23 (17%) & 4/10 (40%)
Rating bands can be hard to use over the long term but a clear turning trend is winners of a higher rating and especially those between 144 and 146. They are highly profitable to back blind in the last decade.
WEIGHT CARRIED
- 10-6 to 11-02 – 14/23 (61%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners have carried between 10 stone 6 and 11 stone 2 which has been profitable to follow blind across both periods.