A standing dish for the November Meeting at Cheltenham so I’ve looked at all runnings this century to establish what it takes to land this race.
KEY TRENDS
- Will NOT be older than 7-years-old and be cautious of 6-year-olds
- NO winning favourite since 2006 and they are heavy loss makers to back blind
- Preference to those with course form and winning course form to boot
- Should have ran in the last 60 days or has strong form when fresh
- Recently it’s been a positive to carry between 10-8 and 11-0 but preferably no less
- Respect runners who finished second last time out
- Likely to have 8 or fewer runs and 2 or more wins over hurdles
Focused Trends
AGE
- 4yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 5yo – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 6yo – 3/25 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 7yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 8yo – 1/25 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
Most winners this century were 5-year-olds, but they also account for the most runners. Still, they operate at the highest strike rate of 10% and they also are the only age to show a profit when backing blind with a 10% ROI.
It’s 6-year-olds who are consistently a big loss maker to follow blind across both this century and in the last decade
It’s also worth noting that only one winner of this race was NOT aged younger than 8 in the race’s entire history and that winner came in 2002 courtesy of Rooster Booster.
PRICE
- Favourites – 3/25 (12%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 13/2 to 20/1 – 16/25 (64%) & 8/10 (80%)
There have only been two winners priced shorter than 13/2 in the last decade and you would have found 8 of the last 10 winners if you backed every runner sent off between 13/2 and 20/1 which is also a profitable to back blind.
This century the sweet spot in terms of SP is between 17/2 and 12/1 which has found 9 winners and a 33% ROI if backing blind. No winning favourite since Detroit City in 2006 so there a chance we could be due one but currently they’re losing almost £20 blind to £1 level stakes this century.
WEIGHT
- Winners carrying 10-13 or more – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
Hard to find a real window in the weight carried that is consistent across both periods other than 60% of winners shouldering 10-13 or more. That’s not profitable to back blind over either period and in the last decade you’d have found as many winners looking at runners with a weight between 10-8 and 11-0 and that does show a profit and an ROI of almost 50%
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 126 to 137 – 11/25 (44%) & 6/10 (60%)
Official Rating is another tricky window to promote but while there have been more winners this century carrying 140+ it’s been a swing in favour of horses carrying between 126 and 137 in the last decade.
LAST TIME OUT
- Ran 15 days ago or less – 4/25 (16%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Ran 30 days ago or less – 12/25 (48%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Ran 60 days ago or less – 15/25 (60%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Ran 121 days ago or more – 10/25 (40%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Finished Top 2 last time out – 13/25 (52%) & 5/10 (50%)
The balance of winners based on their exploits last time out sits entirely based on what best suits each runner. 40% of horses have come here fresh to win but that does mean that more winners will have had a prep run in the last 60 days.
Nothing overly significant in last time out placing, but you may see horses placing Top 2 last time out touted as a positive. It’s not for last time out winners but it is for last time out runner ups.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 16/25 (64%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 10/16 (63%) & 4/7 (57%)
Cheltenham is the home of jumps racing so most winners having been around here before doesn’t entirely denote a requirement to land this race. That said, you’re going to want to show preference to horses who had not only been around this track but have won here or at least run very well.
CAREER HURDLE FORM
- Had less than 9 RUNS over hurdles – 19/25 (76%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had more than 1 WIN over hurdles – 19/25 (76%) & 7/10 (70%)
An early season handicap target and often a race picked up by an unexposed type which might just entitle them to be slightly better handicapped. You’d expect no more than 8 runs over hurdles but multiple wins and the two winners who raced more than 20 times both carried 11-12.