The first Group 1 of the flat season in its key autumnal period is the Sprint Cup at Haydock. Run over 6f, it has proven a tricky puzzle in recent years, but Dave Young is on hand to unravel it, as he dives deep into the trends.
This race was established in 1966 and was won by Be Friendly in the first two editions; to this day he’s the only horse to have won the race more than once. It’s retained Group 1 status since 1988 and it’s worth just shy of £200,000 to the winner.
I’ve looked at all the runnings this century with a comparison to the last 10 years to see what it takes to land a race that clearly takes some winning.
KEY TRENDS
- 3yo’s are the winning most age but they do get 3lbs from their elders
- Only 1 winner this century priced bigger than 14/1
- The draw has no bearing on the result
- Winner should be 110+ rated but preference for those rated 114+
- Should have run in a Group 1 last time out and at least placed
- Course form is NOT essential, however if running here you should have won
- Should have 3 or more wins at 6 furlongs
- Should have already won a Group race of some sort
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 9/24 (38%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 4yo – 4/24 (17%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 5yo – 7/24 (29%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 6yo – 3/24 (13%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 7yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
3yo’s get 3lbs from their elders here and it seemingly shows with half of the last 10 winners aged 3 and almost 40% this century. 5yo’s overall perform better than 4yo’s so it’s probable that the 3yo’s are able to take advantage of this race being run so late in the year. Still, there are winners across a broad range for ages so it’s by no means a dealbreaker.
PRICE
- Favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Single-figures – 13/24 (54%) & 6/10 (60%)
A race which takes some good fortune as often is the case with top grade sprints, but overall, most winners are priced single figures and there’s only been one winner priced bigger than 14/1 this century. Not overly helpful in whittling down the field, but it does mean that the winner is likely findable
DRAW
(2008 running at Doncaster so only 23 counted)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 12/23 (52%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/23 (44%) & 5/10 (50%)
You’ll notice neither time band percentages make up to 100% and that’s because Emaraaty Ana was drawn in 6 of 11 so was slap bang in the middle. This is topical because the split of high to low is pretty balanced, so I’d not be bothered where my horse was drawn.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 110 or more – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners with an OR of 114 or more – 10/24 (44%) & 7/10 (70%)
A 6f sprint allows horses to step up or down in trip as well as coming here as trip specialists so there’s no surprise that over 80% of winners have an OR of 110+. In recent years though you’d be better off looking for a horse rated 114+ with 7 of the 10 winners with that rating having come in the last 8 years.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Placed – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Group 1 – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)
- 5f – 7/24 (29%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 6f – 9/24 (38%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 6.5f+ – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- 21 days or less – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 42 days or less – 16/24 (67%) & 6/10 (60%)
Distance raced last time out doesn’t seem to have a huge significance unless you were to pair change the band to between 5 furlongs and 6.5 furlongs which account for all but 3 winners this century and all bar one in the last decade. More importantly is having last raced in a Group 1 with 71% this century and climbing to 80% in the last 10. Winning last time out isn’t essential but preference must go to those who at least placed last time out. Many winners come here off a 6 week or bigger break but around 40% have won this having run in the last 3 weeks so much like the draw, it’s a moot point.
COURSE FORM
(23 counted as 2008 running at Doncaster)
- Winners who had RUN at Haydock – 14/23 (61%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Winners who had WON at Haydock – 8/14 (57%) & 5/6 (83%)
Any course form is likely to be a positive but with around 40% of winners having their first look at the track when landing this race, it’s by no means essential. Of those who ran here, more than half had won and 5 of the 6 who ran here had won, so while obvious, favour winning course form over losing.
DISTANCE FORM
- Run at 6f – 22/24 (92%) & 9/10 (90%)
- Won at 6f – 21/22 (95%) & 9/9 (100%)
- Winners who had RUN 6+ times at 6f – 15/22 (63%) & 5/9 (56%)
- Winners who had WON 3+ times at 6f – 17/22 (77%) & 7/9 (78%)
In winning a Group 1 you’d expect the majority to have run at the trip and that’s true of 90% of winners. Also winning at the distance should be essential and, again that is true. What’s interesting is that just over half the winners had raced 6+ times over the trip so experience is valued but not essential, but almost 80% of winners had won 3 or more times at 6f, so that’s the key metric to measure. The fact 3yo’s do well with their allowance probably explains the 6+ runs statistic.
SEASON FORM
- Had 2+ runs this season – 24/24 (100%) & 10/10 (100%)
- Had 3+ runs this season – 21/24 (88%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Had 4+ runs this season – 16/24 (67%) & 5/10 (50%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 10/24 (42%) & 2/10 (20%)
- 0 wins this season – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 1 win this season – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 2 wins this season – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 3 wins this season – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- Unbeaten this season – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
Just two winners this century won this as unbeaten horses that season, and both ran and won twice. The number of runs and wins is fairly typical of the time of year, but preference must go to those with at least 1 win this season and at least 3 runs unless they are unbeaten. Not sure how much this will whittle down a quality field though.
GROUP FORM
- Had won a Group 1 – 8/24 (33%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Had won a Group 3 or better – 17/24 (71%) & 7/10 (70%)
Initially a little surprising that only 30% of winners had already won a Group 1 but then again to reiterate the 3yo’s record in here, many may not have had many tries at the top level. 70% of winners though had won a Group race of some sort before taking this so take note of that.
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