Our top tipster, Daryl Carter returns from a short break with five selections fro Friday’s racing, with tips from Chepstow, Newmarket and York. Check out his tips below, along with an excellent Bet £10 – Get £20 sign-up offer from Virgin Bet
SOME CHAOS – (14.10 Chepstow, 1pt each-way – 10/1)
The excitement for the National Hunt season begins, but there aren’t many bets on an opening day other than SOME CHAOS who looks over-priced on this first start in a Veterans Chase.
His last outing was in the Scottish Grand National, for which he failed to stay the 4m at Kelso and his two runs prior to that at the back end of last season over hurdles can be easily forgiven as he has just never taken to them and is rated 25lbs. He is better judged on his last suitable run over fences which was four starts ago when an excellent fifth at Wincanton in the Badger Beers Trophy off a 2lbs higher mark.
His run on this card last term when finishing third behind the useful Secret Investor has worked out really well, with the winner now rated 11lbs higher, and the runner-up is 6lbs higher and a repeat of that run now in Veteran company will see him tough to beat.
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ALLAYAALI – (2.25 Newmarket, 1pt each-way – 10/1)
A typically open renewal, but the chances of ALLAYAALI have been underestimated by the market with her double-figure odds. She was a good winner on debut at Doncaster in a race that has worked out well. The runner-up chased home Fillies’ Mile runner Wild Beauty (107) when third beaten two lengths next time, and the fourth is rated 101 after placing in Group company on her last two starts.
She clearly wasn’t right at Sandown but improved again returned to Doncaster when she won, going away from Favourite Child, who finished a good third at Newmarket next time behind the exciting Tatsumaki. The step-up in trip looks a good move here, and she should be hard to keep out of the frame. The danger is Pearl Glory.
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ORBAAN – (3.15 York, 1pt each-way – 16/1)
ORBAAN looks a good bit of value here, back on soft ground and into an easier race on paper. It was a big, eye-catching run at Goodwood in the Golden Mile two starts ago when denied a clear run only to pick up strongly in the closing stages off a 4lbs higher mark.
He was given too much to do by Jamie Spencer on his latest outing over course and distance in a race when it paid to be ridden prominently. He is unexposed on softer ground, and the best runs of his career have come with cut in the ground, including his last victory off a 3lbs higher mark over course and distance last July.
Orbaan is 26lbs better off for three-length York defeat by Hartswood last season and 8lbs better off for a two-length defeat on the all-weather when that one led a ridiculously slow pace from the off, giving Orbaan a big upgrade on the effort. This is his easiest task since fitted with a tongue-tie, and the handicapper has been generous to relent 5lbs in 4 runs. He must go close.
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ILLUSIONIST – (4.20 York, 1pt each-way – 14/1)
ILLUSIONIST is the first of the two I want to back in this contest but is the stronger of the two fancied. He finished third in this race last year behind our other selection, Muscika, off a handicap mark of 90 and returns to the race 6lbs lower.
This is the first time he has run on soft ground since. His only other run with juice in the surface resulted in a victory over Call Me Ginger at Hamilton. That horse is now rated 10lbs higher in the handicap, while the selection is off the same handicap mark today.
The return to five furlongs on soft ground looks a good move with form figures of 8 (beaten three lengths by Copper Knight), 8 (beaten six lengths Newmarket didn’t handle the track), 3, 2 (here at York to Live In The Moment now rated 16lbs higher) and 4 since 2019.
This is the lowest handicap mark he has run off over today’s five-furlong trip. His latest form figures suggest he is out of form. However, he was a big eye-catcher in the Great St Wilfred when last seen on the wrong side of the track and was denied a clear run on two occasions when travelling strongly.
He looks one of the best-handicapped horses in the race, and everything looks in place for a big run, including plenty of pace to set it up for his strong finishing effort.
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MUSCIKA – (4:20pm York, 1pt each-way – 11/1)
I want to have a cover bet on last year’s winner MUSCIKA who has fallen 8lbs below last year’s winning handicap mark and returns to soft ground for the first time since. He shaped as though a return to form may be imminent here at York last time when travelling strongly throughout a hot 6f handicap only to fade late on.
That would have set him up for a repeat tilt at this contest, and he is now 10lbs lower than his last run over 5f when not disgraced back in may (behind our NAP). All bar one of his career victories have come over 6f, but the combination of 5f and the soft ground looks ideal, and he can’t go without a saver.
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DARYL CARTER’S BEST BETS
SOME CHAOS – (14.10 Chepstow, 1pt each-way – 10/1)
ALLAYAALI – (2.25 Newmarket, 1pt each-way – 10/1)
ORBAAN – (3.15 York, 1pt each-way – 16/1)
ILLUSIONIST – (4.20 York, 1pt each-way – 14/1)
MUSCIKA – (4:20pm York, 1pt each-way – 11/1)
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